KIm Howells is both mad and ignorant ... Taliban triumphant
British Minister hails Pak-Taliban deal in Waziristan Sept 9th 2006 ZeeNews
The peace deal between the Pakistan government and pro-Taliban militants which it is claimed will end 5 years of unrest in the tribal area bordering Afghanistan is a "great step forward" and could be a "future model" for insurgency-ridden Kabul,Foreign Minister Kim Howells told reporters during his visit to Peshawar yesterday.
"I am absolutely certain if there is possibility for negotiations which are constructive and not just a gesture... If it is likely to throw up the kind of results which the negotiations in Waziristan have thrown up, then it could be a future model for Afghanistan," he was quoted as saying by Daily Times.
Howells went on to say that Pakistan was "not a source of terrorism" and was not responsible for the unrest in southern Afghanistan.
He said there had been much unrest in Balochistan, saying the area "has been controlled by warlords and drug barons" and had been infiltrated by Taliban militants from Afghanistan.
Well that is not a universal view indeed our friend Rick Moran who fills the idle hours of Wide Awake Radio writes in the curiously titled American Thinkerof "Musharraf's Deal with the Devil" (September 7th, 2006)
It is, he says, an apparently equitable arrangement that addresses the serious problems of Taliban and al-Qaeda incursions across the border into Afghanistan to fight NATO troops as well as bringing an end to the fighting between Pakistani forces and the fierce, independent tribesman in the region.
President Musharraf, he points out that in the presence of Afghan President Karzai he boasted that the treaty was a boon to the embattled Afghanistan government.
“No militant activity, no training activity, they have accepted this,” General Musharraf said. “This is the bottom line of the peace agreement.”
Rick Moran points to Bill Roggio , at the Fourth Rail who claims in a piece cunningly entitled ... "Talibanistan: The Establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan" that the “truce” is in fact a surrender. According to an anonymous intelligence source,(now who on Earth could that be ?? Hmmmm ...so ... no guarantee of the truth, authenticity or accuracy of this information is provided) ...the terms of the truce are said to include:
1. The Pakistani Army is abandoning its garrisons in North and South Waziristan.
2. The Pakistani Military will not operate in North Waziristan, nor will it monitor actions the region.
3. Pakistan will turn over weapons and other equipment seized during Pakistani Army operations.
4. The Taliban and al-Qaeda have set up a Mujahideen Shura (or council) to administer the agency.
5. The truce refers to the region as “The Islamic Emirate of Waziristan.”
6. An unknown quantity of money was transferred from Pakistani government coffers to the Taliban. The Pakistani government has essentially paid a tribute or ransom to end the fighting.
7. “Foreigners” (a euphemism for al-Qaeda and other foreign jihadis) are allowed to remain in the region.
8. Over 130 mid-level al-Qaeda commanders and foot soldiers were released from Pakistani custody.
9. The Taliban is required to refrain from violence in Pakistan only; the agreement does not stipulate refraining from violence in Afghanistan.
The Pakistani government he says (despite what Rentagob Howells says) has ceded a region the size of New Joisey, with a population of about 800,000 to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
An intelligence source ( who again we wonder ? Hmmmmm .. same caveats apply as above but other sources indicate this is so) indicates similar negotiations between the Taliban and the Pakistani government are being held in the agencies of Khyber, Tank, Dera Ishmal Khan and Bajaur. The jihadi dreams of al-Qaeda's safe havens in western Pakistan may become a reality. So any gains made by the Coalition / NATO in Afghanistan (at huge cost) have now officially been wiped away with the peace agreement in the newly established Islamic Emirate of Waziristan.
Moran goes on to say that the war against the Taliban in North Waziristan was forced on Musharraf by the United States, when terrorists were using the region as a staging ground for attacks in Afghan. Sending 80,000 troops to patrol the borders. The tribes rose up and in a series of fierce, small unit engagements inflicted many casualties on the Pakistani forces. It became clear that the historically independent-minded tribes would not submit and in June, a cease fire was declared so that a deal could be hammered out.
He points to the limits of American power Musharrif sees as the Taliban grow stronger in Afghanistan as well as the slow progress (?) of American and Coalition forces in Iraq. Perhaps he doesn’t feel quite as secure and believes that a deal with the Taliban in North Waziristan (and other tribal areas as well) is better than relying on the American military to defeat the terrorists.
Secondly, and more significantly, Parvez Musharraf created a huge problem for himself on August 26 when he ordered the killing of aged Nawab Akbar Bugti, the tribal leader and former governor of Balochistan (although educated at the Sorbonne).Troubles which have been increased by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (in Paris) elaborating on the decision and method of killing him. In a bizarre twist his sons want him exhumed to test his DNA because they claim he escaped, although over 40 died in the attack on him.
Balochistan is the largest province in Pakistan and also its most troublesome. There has been an independence movement in existence even before partition, with 4 major rebellions since the 1950’s. Each insurrection was brutally suppressed by the government along with a crackdown on Baluchi traditions and culture. With abundant natural resources as well as some large natural gas fields, the province has proved to be virtually ungovernable. Some Baluchis resent the government taking so much wealth from the province and putting very little back in the form of government services, while others agitate for outright independence.
The killing of Bugti set off a wave of unrest all across Pakistan, but especially in the rebel leader’s home province. If another uprising is in the offing, Musharraf may have need for many of those 80,000 troops he sent to North Waziristan. As it stands now, Bugti’s militia and other tribal forces have carried out a few attacks against the gas pipelines ( a constant occupation in the area) but have not directly challenged government troops in the area ...yet. The prospect of another rebellion could have spurred Musharraf to make peace with the Taliban so that he could turn his attention to the growing insurgency nearer at home in Balochistan.
Moran goes on to identify what Frederic Grare, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has to say ..
"The killing of Bugti has exposed a Pakistani President both unable to fulfill his commitments in the War on Terror and only able to act decisively against his own people. Musharraf’s actions have reversed decades’ worth of slow progress toward national integration."
With elections scheduled for next year, it is unclear whether Musharrif will allow a vote - the alternative – an extremist Islamic regime with its hands on nuclear weapons is too awful for Washington and Tel Aviv to contemplate.
One thing is certain...Parvez will need to keep his personal Glock pistol ready to hand for a long time.... even then it doesn't hurt to imagine the consequences of his early death.
Expect a few good trade deals / dollars and military hardware winging their way from Uncle Sam in the near future, and maybe the fleeting sight of Condi on a fly by / drive by diplomacy trip.
FOOTNOTE
Jalaluddin Haqqani served as Taliban tribal affairs minister. He had been a prominent leader in the 1980's struggleagainst the Soviets. Haqqani is a northern Pashtun with his power base in Khost, Paktia and Paktika. Haqqani has long-standing ties with Pakistan's intelligence services (SIS). The center of Taliban power was/is in Kandahar, home of the southern Pashtuns.
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