Taliban expand grip on Afghanistan and surround Kabul

The Senlis Council , one of the few independent and rational bodies that publishes reports on Afghanistan has decided to become the International Council on Security and Development (ICOS)

They claim this reflects their continuing expansion of programmes and new research platforms in various zones of conflict. They also have a new website and have produced a a report today
Struggle for Kabul: The Taliban Advance (pdf 40 pages).

They claim that the Taliban have rooted themselves itself across increasing swathes of Afghan territory. ICOS have been researching throughout 2008, and say that the Taliban now has a permanent presence in 72% of the country.. up from 54% in November 2007 as outlined in the ICOS (Senlis) report Stumbling into Chaos: Afghanistan on the Brink.

They also claim that the Taliban are the de facto governing power in a number of southern towns and villages. This illustrates the Taliban’s political, military and economic strategies are now more successful than the West’s in Afghanistan. Confident in their expansion beyond the rural south, the Taliban are at the gates of the capital and are now infiltrating the city at will.

Kabul is increasingly surrounded

There are four principal routes into / out of Kabul.

1. To the West, towards the Afghan National Ring Road through Wardak to Kandahar become unsafe for Afghan or international travel by the time travellers reach the entrance to Wardak province, which is about thirty minutes from the city limits.
2. To the South the road to Logar is no longer safe for Afghan or international travel.
3. To the east the road to Jalalabad is not safe for Afghan or international travel once travellers reach the Sarobi Junction which is about an hour outside of the city.
3. There are 2 northern routes ;

a) The road North towards the Bagram Air Base is frequently used by foreign and military convoys and subject to insurgent attacks.

b) The road North towards the Panjshir valley, Salang tunnel and Mazar – is considered safe for Afghan and international travel.

As the noose tightens around Kabul the Taliban have established bases close to the city from which to launch attacks inside it. Using these bases, the Taliban and insurgent attacks in Kabul have increased dramatically – including kidnapping of Afghans and foreigners, various bomb attacks and assassinations.

This dynamic has created a fertile environment for criminal activity, and the links between the Taliban and criminals are increasing and the lines between the various violent actors becoming blurred.

As this report is published the BBC report that the Taliban have attacked another depot in Peshawar and destroyed a further 50 vehicles in addition to the 100 destroyed at another depot on Sunday.



US Marines get ready to deploy to Afghanistan

Gen. James Conway, the Marine Corps commandant, is reported today by AP (Marines will shift to Afghanistan) that Marine units tentatively scheduled to go to Iraq next spring are already incorporating some training for Afghanistan into their preparations.

He said he has had discussions with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, and believes the Pentagon chief "would not object to the idea of a fairly strategic shift of focus of Marines from Iraq to Afghanistan."

"I just see that people have, over time, understood we don't want to take over Afghanistan, such as was rumored when we first started talking about a shift of forces,"

Gen. David McKiernan, the commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, has said he needs up to 20,000 additional troops, including four combat brigades and thousands of support troops.

Conway said several Marine units will be moving into Iraq in January and February, and it is too late to redirect them to Afghanistan. Instead, he said another large turnover of units in Anbar around April could be shifted to Afghanistan if they are notified soon.

A DoD News Briefing with Maj. Gen. Tucker (Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations for ISAF, Deputy Commander for Operations, U.S. Forces ) from Afghanistan at the Pentagon Briefing Room, Arlington, Va. on the 5th December makes interesting reading in view of the above.

Especially in relation to the need for helicopters.

Dead of many nations , killed in Afghanistan, remembered in Manchester today

Bob Woodward's Bush at War, pp. 35-36 confirmed that that National Security Presidential Directive #9, after being vetted by NSC Advisor Condoleezza Rice in the White House, was "ready to go to the President on September 10." This was a plan to "eliminate" al Qaeda by going "on the offensive" against the Taliban.

On September 4 the deputy secretaries of defense and state had, "approved and recommended a plan [to this effect] that would give the CIA $125 million to $200 million a year to arm the [Northern] Alliance."

Operation Enduring Freedom was alunched on October 7, 2001 as the as ajoint US and UK military operation.

"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the US and our allies have prevailed," Bush said 19 months later on FridayMay 2nd 2003, from the deck of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln which was returning to its home port on the West Coast after ten months of service in support of the military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.

"The battle of Iraq is one victory in a war on terror that began on September 11, 2001 and still goes on," Bush told 5,000 sailors on the carrier.

Stop the War manchester took the opportunity after countless deaths since Enduring Freedom unleashed daily aerial bombing on Afghanistan ad Pakistan to rmember some of the dead.

Names garnered from news reports of the dead of many nations were written on 1,000memorial labels in schools, doctor's waiting rooms, streets, pubs, clubs and diaplyed in the middle of the main pedestrian precinct in Manchester immediately outside the entrance to the Arndale centre - remodelled after the Irish terrorists required it to be re-modelled some years ago.

Ex Labour Mayor of Manchester City Council Cllr. Afzal Khan came to provide support.

It was a brisk shopping day amajor retailers were launching major sales and the site was visited by many others and granparents of serving soldiers who generally expresed concern over the safety of their family members at war, and a wholseome desire for a speedy exit.

A surly scalped young man claiming to have served with 3rd Para in Musa Quala was a sole critic of the display - many of whose coleagues names were listed.

Lord Patel an inoccent remarked to the energetic organiser Mark that PC PLod was noticeably in non - attendance. With a weary shrug he indicated the wealth of CCTV cameras.

Returning home via Victoria Station later the folowing Transport Police sign confirmed the ubiquity of the searching lens.

Another UK soldier dies after vehicle is hit by bomb in Helmand province

The 2nd Ghurka (2nd Battalion the Royal Ghurkha Rifles )and 125th UK soldier to die in Afghanistan was killed in an explosion yesterday when his patrol in the Musa Qala District of Helmand Province was struck by a bomb, according to the International Security Assistance Force.

The MoD said he was taking part in a routine road move when the vehicle he was travelling in struck an explosive device. No details have been released about the type of vehicle he was travelling in.

An MOD post from 18th September 2008 quotes ..."Jackal is a beast, an awesome piece of kit," said Royal Marines Captain Orlando Rogers on the eve of his first deployment to Helmand province."

Other units, including Gurkhas, (see pic) have been familiarising themselves with new kit during the five-month preparation:

"We have had an intense training period and we feel ready in all aspects," said Capt Rogers. "There's a lot of quality to the kit and we can have a personal choice. It's spot on. A few years ago kit was good. Now we have the best."

See - Saturday, November 15, 2008 The Jackal with the soft underbelly

UPDATE : D Telegraph Monday reports that it was an IED that caused the explosion.

The Daily Mail Monday reports that the Ghurka was travelling in a 25 ton Warrior tropp carrier - they explain that Warrior vehicles first entered service in 1988, but they have been overhauled and had their armour upgraded to meet the threat from Taliban and al-Qaeda bombs.

Together with the British Army Mastiffs, a company of Warriors are based outside Musa Qala, in Forward Operating Base Edinburgh, to ferry soldiers to and from the outposts, ringing the town.

Until recently they were largely considered "mine proof" says the Mail article, but they have learnt that, " at least three Warrior's have been damaged "beyond repair" in the last eight months as the Taliban bomb makers set ever bigger charges in British soldiers' paths." See Guradian report as well

See video as Warriors arrive in Afghanistan mid 2007 and also here

UPDATE Monday 17th Nov. Just discovered - Days of the Jackal: Supacat’s HMT Vehicles
02-Nov-2008 http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/british-uor-to-field-130-supacat-mwmik-patrol-vehicles-03404/

Further Update Monday the MOD have named the dead soldier as Colour Sergeant Krishnabahadur Dura

Shock, surprise result Obama wins !

Well Lord Patel was wrong that Fred Thompson would receive the Republican nominaion and also to suggest that a handy bet on Mac the Nife would quintuple yer money ...evidently his political advice is no more valuable than Sarah Palin's.

One thing is certain, Obama's supporters will be ringin' the bells now, but will be wringing their hands in 6 months time.