Democracy comes at a price ....

An Unkept Promise in Iraq NYT April 17, 2006

2 years ago, the US government made a promise to build 142 health clinics in Iraq, bringing basic care to underserved areas outside the big cities. That would save innocent Iraqi lives, and build good will for the US where it has grown dangerously scarce.

A generous cost-plus contract was awarded to Parsons Inc., an American construction firm, to do the work, supervised by the Army Corps of Engineers.

With roughly $200 million already spent and which will run out in less than 9 months, it appears extremely unlikely that most of those clinics will ever be built. The Washington Post reported earlier this month, the Army Corps of Engineers predicts that no more than 20 clinics will actually be completed — out of 142.

The Good news for the Iraqis desperate for decent health care is ......The office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction is looking into it.

Whoooooooop de doooo!!!!

James F. McNulty was appointed Chairman of the Board of Directors of Parsons in January 1998. Jim retired from the Army as a Colonel in 1988, joining Parsons that same year.

So you might think this might cause parsons to worry well in February they were pleased to announce to the Pasadena Press (PDF Alert)..

In January , Parsons was awarded a $28 million contract to reconstruct and renovate the Tadji military base and Iraqi Armed Forces recruiting stations.

The contract was awarded through the company's Worldwide Environmental Restoration Contract with the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence.

The Tadji based project - deemed critical to maintaining security in Iraq while its infrastructure is rebuilt - will include building renovation, repair of wastewater treatment plants and installation of sewer lines.

"This work is expected to be finished in June,' Parsons spokeswoman Virginia Baca said. "They need to get this military base and the reconstruction up and running so the Iraqi military can protect their country.'

Hey not bad ... but there's more shareholders ...

That contract comes on the heels of another announced earlier in January from the United States Army Corps of Engineers.

Parsons Corp. was part of a team awarded a contract for future work in restoring the oil infrastructure in northern Iraq to pre-war production levels.

The contract, valued at $500,000 to as much as $800 million, covers a variety of services including the cleanup and restoration of oil fields, pipelines and refineries.

The two-year agreement also has three one-year options, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

McNulty said he takes pride in his company's work - work that in many cases changes people's lives.

Now that is what I would call a fucking scandal but then Jim obviously has friends in the US Army Corps of Engineers.

French demand Judicial enquiry into Rendition flights on French soil.

The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) is urging French prosecutors to open a judicial inquiry into allegations that CIA-operated rendition flights stopped at French airports. A local French prosecutor has already opened a preliminary investigation into claims that CIA planes which landed at Le Bourget airport outside Paris carried terror suspects being transported to countries where they could be subject to torture.

FIDH believe - if the facts can be established - that these procedures for transporting prisoners can be likened to a form of arbitrary detention and illegal confinement and may constitute, blatant violations of the Geneva Conventions. In addition, it has now been established that the techniques called “intensive interrogation” by CIA operatives involve the use of torture and mistreatment and are therefore officially prohibited by the United Nations Convention against Torture and other Cruel, Inhumane or Degrading Punishment or Treatment of 10 December 1984. There is now every reason to fear that such practices have been carried out on prisoners while they were being transported on two suspect flights.

FIDH are currently filing their complaint with the Public Prosecutor of the Administrative Court of Bobigny,(le procureur de Bobigny, Francis Molins) as Paris-Le Bourget Airport is situated within its jurisdiction ( and also limited to that). They intention is to emphasise the responsibility of the French authorities, to inquire into the activities of these planes and to pursue their perpetrators." ("détentions arbitraires, séquestrations, tortures, et de violations de la troisième convention de Genève sur le sort des prisonniers de guerre".)

Following a report released by Amnesty International earlier this month detailing the CIA's alleged use of private air carriers and "front" companies to hide its rendition practices, the FIDH is calling for an international judicial commission to look into the allegations.

US officials have always denied using rendition to allow torture of suspects by foreign governments, although Condoleezza Rice acknowledged making mistakes in the "war on terror," when having a jolly time with Jack in Blackburn recently. Der Spiegel preferred to call it "Condi's Tale of Lies".In March, the Council of Europe Secretary General issued a report (by Swiss Senator Dick Marty) concluding that there was no clear evidence of any secret CIA detention facilities in Europe.

Suspicions have persisted, however, with declassified Canadian memos...(22/2/06

One note, stamped secret, says 20 planes with alleged CIA ties have made 74 flights to Canada since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The note adds the Canada Border Services Agency, which compiled the figures, and Nav Canada, the civil aviation regulatory body, "have indicated that proper administrative and operational procedures were followed in relation to those flights."

.... and UK air traffic controllers (Guradian) suggesting that the US did use rendition to transfer suspects through their domestic airspaces. UN Special Rapporteur on Torture Manfred Nowak recently said that he is certain that the United States has secret detention facilities in Europe and has demanded access to them, he has catalogued in a 15-page U.N. report for the UN Council how the systems works and which countries have been involved. AFP has (Eng.) more. Le Monde (Fr.) has local coverage.

Pic (Prison Planet) is of Prestwick Airport from Google Earth, just when Pres. Bush's Galaxy's were unloading his fleet of bomb proof limo's for the G8 Summit. Rendition flights have passed through Prestwick however.More.

Lord Adonis - Plod is on his trail

(DOB 22/2/63)takes his rather luscious title from his Greek Cypriot father (Adonis is from the same semitic root as Adonai, meaning "Lord.") and is currently known by the even more impressive title of Parliamentary Under Secretary of State in the Department for Education and Skills.

Andrew's early life was spent council estate near King's Cross in London. His mother left him and his younger sister and Andrew was was awarded a local education authority grant to go to the private Kingham Hill School in Oxfordshire, near Chipping Norton.

From there he went onto Keble College Oxford taking a First in Modern History and then doctorate in 19th century political history at Christ Church, Oxford in 1988. Finally he became a research fellow and tutor at Nuffield College, Oxford from then until 1991, where he met and tutored his wife Kathryn Davis who after graduating at Jesus eventually went to work for Proctor and Gamble in Germany.

Frome the Groves of Oxford Academe he moved on to the Financial Times where he was a public policy correspondent, industry correspondent, and a public policy editor all at the Financial Times. In 1996, he moved to The Observer.

At oxford he appears to have been a member of the SDP and indeed wrote the official biography of Lord Jenkins of Hillhead - a tome that appears to have sunk without trace.he was for a time a Liberal democrat Councillor in Oxford (87-91) and was for a brief time a prospective Parliamentary candidate for the SDP.

The Labour Party, Andrew rises without trace

It was in 1995 that Andrew joined the Labour Party, his rapid rise within the higher levels of the party appears uncharted but after 1997 he was a member of the No 10 Policy Unit with a special interest in Education and has been seen as a prime mover on educational issues such as Top Up Fees, Fresh Start and Tony's favourite "City Academies".

Opposition to Top Up Fees is widespread (said to have been supported by his SDP mentor Lord jenkins) , The strategy of the "Fresh Start" policy was to close and reopen "failing schools" with new names and new staff which has seen to be an experiment that failed. His "City Academies" programme has attracted strong criticism from educationalists, parents and Labour politicians and now has landed him with an interview with the Met's finest to chat about funding the Academies and peerages.

Outside the charmed circle Andrew seems to have few friends and in In October 2003 Andrew was rumoured in the media to have been heavily involved in the resignation of the then Secretary of State for Education and Skills, Estelle Morris, when they failed to work effectively together.

It was however his elevation to the peerage last year after the election when he was boosted to be the Education Secretary that caused most alarm. Finally he had to accept Parliamentary Under Secretary of State - but Ruth Kelly was said to be "less than thrilled "at his presence in her Ministry.

Roy Hattersley former Deputy Leader of the Labour Party,lifelong advocate of comprehensive schooling, and sometimed a man with a keen phrase, usually assembled when attacking Tony Blair called his elevation "an example of Tony Blair's kamikaze attacks on its the Labour Party's most cherished values" and that the appointment "wins high marks for [its] arrogant insensitivity"

The Lord's eye view of the Lords

Andrew's rapid elevation to the Lords is curious given that he wrote in 1997, "Modernising Britain's Democracy: The Case for Change" on reforming of the House of Lords:

"Lords reform is not just about democratic equality. The present Second Chamber, lacking democratic legitimacy, is incapable of performing the essential functions of a revising assembly…

"Occasionally the Lords has exerted itself: John Major's government, having lost its overall majority, was forced to make concessions over Michael Howard's police and sentencing legislation. But this was in the highly exceptional instance of a government unable to get its own way automatically in the Commons. Governments most in need of a strong revising chamber - those with large majorities in the Commons - are those which find it easiest to ride roughshod over the little "revision" that the existing Lords carries out.

"This critique implies a two-stage reform of the Lords. First, the removal of the hereditary peers. Secondly, a wider reform to give the Second Chamber the democratic credentials which can only come from election, although there is still a case for a nominated element in the Upper House to ensure that distinguished non-party figures retain a voice in Parliament."

The 1911 Parliament Act, which curbed the Lords' powers, included a pledge to replace the hereditary chamber with an elected one. Ninety years later, we are still waiting.

Highly unpopular with the rank and file he was roundly attacked in January this year when the Education Bill was launched and backbenchers called for his removal. Lord Kinnock without naming Andrew referred to a "conniving person" at the heart of government who was pushing Mr Blair much too far down the path of reform.

Andrew wrote an article when at the Observer in December 1996, in which he saw education as the prime policy for the new Labour Government and urged Tony Blair to take two posts in the new Labour government: prime minister – and Education Secretary.

The article also articulated his concern about the widening gap between state and private education: ‘Britain’s private-sector, private-educated elite is separating from the rest of society at an alarming rate as we breed a strain of plutocratic meritocracy unique to the western world.’ Andrew's proposed solution was to break up the state system as we knew it, using ‘public-private partnership, higher expectations of teachers, the setting and selection of pupils by aptitude, vocational education, and decisive intervention to revive failing schools’.

Academy Schools. Which Tony promised us 200 and we now have 27.... and a reeking smell of power, patronage and influence.

Tony puts his best foot forward

The Daily Telegraph reports today "A senior Downing Street aide to Mr Blair, speaking with his full authority, said Number 10 was now "ready to go on the front foot" on the issue.

"We are very positive about people who have given their money and expertise and time being recommended for seats in the House of Lords," said the aide, adding that the honours system should operate in exactly that way.

"We want these people to be in the House of Lords and take the Labour whip. It is something we are prepared to celebrate."

Plods take an interest in the Baron

Sir Cyril Taylor of the Specialist Schools and Academies Trust (SSAT) is quoted in the Sunday Herald that Andrew, when he was Blair’s education adviser before he became a minister, had met with potential academy sponsors. Taylor said: “If you are putting in a lot of energy and a couple of million pounds, you want some attention.”

Andrew's involvement in talking to sponsors and giving them the “attention” of a senior Downing Street aide with close contact to Blair, will be of keen interest to the Scotland Yard investigation. As the inquiry widens ... and begins to encompass those officials and aides who met with sponsors, Adonis may well need to explain just what “attention” actually meant.

Six of those who delivered the largest level of sponsorship finance into the city academies programme were officially honoured after pledging cash support. Plus three more who have disapeerages.

Perhaps in 1997 when he wrote about the reform of the Lords ..."although there is still a case for a nominated element in the Upper House to ensure that distinguished non-party figures retain a voice in Parliament." he did, unlike those politicians who go to the trouble of being elected , mean it... and did something about it .... by the well known democratic process of having a word in Tony's ear.(see pic)

Ariel Sharon's legacy - Sabra, Shattila & a Prison of Gaza

Want to know how life is for the Palestinian Princess ... life on the Gaza street, go here NOW
First, Israel stops flour from entering Gaza, and now stops petroleum from the W. Bank. What's next?

Maybe some of you know, well, maybe you don't, but last Sunday, Israel stopped petroleum to the W. Bank, granted it lasted only for a day but it was surely done as a slap on the wrist for us bad Palestinians.....

In Israel the water is controlled by the Department of Agriculture but the water for the W. Bank is controlled by the Department of Defense so I will let you guys ponder that one...

Also go here to the Cutter @ PeacePalestine....
US & EU cut aid to PA - it amounts to a boycott against the Palestinian people

which includes There is no hunger in Gaza By Gideon Levy of Haaretz 09/04/2006

..... "even if they have bags of flour and rice, the living conditions of the Palestinians are chilling. They live in prison. Their daily routine includes humiliation that is no less terrible than malnutrition. Anyone who has to beg for permission to leave his village, to spend hours crowded in line at a checkpoint just to reach his destination, anyone whose bedroom is brutally invaded in the middle of the night by the occupation army, whose time and life is considered valueless, and whose basic human dignity has been trampled into dust, cannot find any consolation in the fact that flour and rice is available....."

and this pic. ...See also the Observer article about Gaza today 16th April 2006

Drugs deliver the profits - new ways to deliver the drugs ?

The FDA approved 81 new medicines in 2005 compared with 113 in 2004. An estimated 18 new molecular entities were amongst them , compared with 36 in 2004. 2 new drugs Nexavar and Levemir are seen by the pharma industry see as "Blockbusters" - US$1Bn sales a year.

Nexavar® a Bayer / Onyx drug is the first FDA-approved drug for renal cell carcinoma in more than a decade. The Swiss Agency for Therapeutic Products approved it for use in Switzerland this week and it is expected to roll out over Europe this year as Bayer have filed for regulatory approval with the European Medicines Agency (EMEA). Trials are currently underway trial studying Nexavar® (sorafenib) tablets administered in combination with the chemotherapeutic agents carboplatin and paclitaxel in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).


Levemir by Novo Nordisk Inc.was approved June 16 for treating adults with diabetes mellitus, type 1 and type 2 and is currently approved in 50 countries worldwide. On October 20th , FDA approved Levemir for use in children. Levemir is a novel, long-acting form of insulin that provides up to a 24-hour duration of action and has been observed in studies with adults to cause little weight change. The company was awarded the prestigious James D. Watson Helix Award for their work on this drug.


Increasingly the pharma industry is assessing new methods of drug delivery as the novel products line diminishes. At the BIO 2006 conference in Chicago, on April 9-12, 2006, Do-Coop Technologies introduced Neowater (TM) - introduced Nano Neowater a product which is described as a Solubilization Enhancer that enables or increases the solubility of hydrophobic, insoluble molecules and drugs.

Neowater is based on the novel techniques of water-based nanotechnology. Unlike dry nanotechnology, which is directed to manufacturing a nanoparticle end product, Neowater builds upon the unique properties of nanoparticles to modify the physical properties of water molecules around them.

Each nanoparticle within Neowater, with its huge surface, creates a "surface effect," and in turn organizes the water molecules surrounding it. It is claimed this resembles the surface effect of organelles within living cells. Both the organelles and the nanoparticles use this mechanism to create "intracellular" water. While the former is within cells and organs and cannot be harnessed nor used in a lab bench, the latter type, which is branded as Neowater, can.

Based in Israel, the company produces a water based product whose physical properties mimic that of intracellular water using inorganic, insoluble crystals introduced in water in a patented process. Neowater, with its stable system of largely hydrated nano-particles, like non-ionic detergent derived micelles, reduces the entropy of aqueous solutions. In addition, by design, it exhibits both hydrophilic and hydrophobic properties.

About Neowater(TM) - Solubilization Enhancer

Eran Gabbai, is the founder, President and CTO of Do-Coop Technologies, and the inventor and patentee of Neowater technology, he points out that Biotech and Pharma companies have libraries or portfolios of what are considered to be significant compounds which have been proven effective in vitro, yet they are very insoluble and thus (currently) unusable. Neowater technology he claims could dramatically enhance the solubility of those compounds that are difficult-to-solvate, or that are used with common solvents but exhibit poor pharmacokinetics.

Biotech and Pharma companies using these products can solubilize such compounds, which may enhance both their stability and bio-availability, extending and protecting their intellectual property. (They may not of course)

Neowater replaces polar solvents such as detergents and surfactants, alcohols such as ethanol and other broadly used ( but widely criticised) solvents like Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO)

However before you get too excited read more about it here
or go to the history of Polywater here

Forgotten victims

No Child Left Behind Newsweek
More than 1,200 U.S. kids have lost a parent in Iraq or Afghanistan.

"The Army has never been very good at talking about death—especially when it comes to children. But with a fighting force that is increasingly made up of parents—43.5 percent of all service people have children—the U.S. military is realizing it needs to offer more to grieving families than a folded flag and a package of death benefits. "

"The children have often been the forgotten mourners," explains Vicki Jay, executive director of Rays of Hope, a children's grief center in Texas.... 

The Easter Rising ?

Exporting 'Democracy' – Importing Trouble
Why we ought to mind our own business

Justin Raimondo

The text of a speech delivered to the Yale Political Union on April 13th. On this occasion, the Union debated the topic: "Resolved: America should not use force to export democracy."

.."The neoconservative foreign policy project – succinctly summed up by the President as the goal of "ending tyranny in our world" – is closer, in theory and in practice, to the spirit of Marxism than to anything vaguely resembling conservatism, or, indeed, any ideology born on American soil. That is entirely appropriate, of course, since the leftist roots of neoconservatism are well known, and it is clear that, as much as they talk about patriotism and "pro-Americanism," their real roots spring from a bulb planted not by Jefferson, but by Trotsky."...

Read this, if this does not convince you of the utter folly of the Iraqi and Afghan adventures - and possible Iranian manouevres in the dark, nothing will.

Meanwhile the Generals (Rtd.) revolt against their Commander in Chief ...... McArthur and Truman Redux ?

Climate changes, Pm's change, attitudes don't

The UK Government’s chief scientist Professor Sir David King has been ever present on TV news this Easter saying that even by the most optimistic assessments carbon dioxide levels were set to rise to double what they were at the time of the industrial revolution - leading to a 3C rise in temperature resulting in all sorts of dire predictions being made and TV news going ape over library shots of flood, melting ice, snow, hurricanes …..

60 scientists attached their names to a letter to the Canadian prime Minister last week which was published in the National Post… read it, here are some brief extracts.

Dear Prime Minister,

As accredited experts in climate and related scientific disciplines, we write to propose that balanced, comprehensive public-consultations be held to examine the scientific foundation of the federal government's climate-change plans. This would be entirely consistent with your recent commitment to conduct a review of the Kyoto Protocol. Although many of us made the same suggestion to then-prime ministers Martin and Chretien, neither responded, and, to date, no formal, independent climate-science review has been conducted in Canada. Much of the billions of dollars earmarked for implementation of the protocol in Canada will be squandered without a proper assessment of recent developments in climate science.

Observational evidence does not support today's computer climate models, so there is little reason to trust model predictions of the future.

Yet this is precisely what the United Nations did in creating and promoting Kyoto ……

While the confident pronouncements of scientifically unqualified environmental groups may provide for sensational headlines, they are no basis for mature policy formulation.

The study of global climate change is, as you have said, an "emerging science," one that is perhaps the most complex ever tackled. …

"Climate change is real" is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause. Neither of these fears is justified. Global climate changes all the time due to natural causes and the human impact still remains impossible to distinguish from this natural "noise." …..

….the science continued to evolve, and still does, even though so many choose to ignore it when it does not fit with predetermined political agendas.

CC:The Honourable Rona Ambrose, Minister of the Environment, and the Honourable Gary Lunn, Minister of Natural Resources

NEWS UPDATE

Here is an interesting rebuttal / comment from a leading Tree Physiologist

Deaths and Departures at Easter, on a slow news day.

Egyptian Muhsin Musa Matwalli Atwah, 45, who was on the FBI's list of most-wanted terrorists, suspected of being an Al Qaeda member is reported killed with 2 children and 6 militants in an attack led by helicopter gunships late Wednesday in the remote North Waziristan village of Naghar Kalai, near the Afghan border. (pic FBI)

After the aerial attacks ground forces arrived and took away 7 bodies said local residents.

It is also reported that alleged al-Qaeda explosives expert Abdul Rahman al-Masri was also killed.

Residents of Naghar, a town four miles from Miram Shah, North Waziristan's principal town, said a man in their village who appeared to be of Arab descent was "known to be commanding insurgents in the area".

Pakistan's information minister, Rashid Ahmed, told Reuters Atwah was among the dead, but Pakistani sources would not confirm that.

Atwah is alleged to have had a role in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Those blasts killed more than 200 people, including 12 Americans, and Washington has a US$ 5 Mn bounty on his head.

Atwah was indicted by a federal grand jury in New York along with 21 other al-Qaida members, including Osama bin Laden, in connection with the attacks on the embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

A senior military officer Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan, the top Pakistan army spokesmansaid information about the suspects came from 19 fighters who surrendered in North Waziristan this month.

Google News search Muhsin Musa Matwalli Atwah result = 495 items

8 year old Hadel Ghabeen, (Hadil Ghaban) whose home in Beit Lahiya, Gaza, was hit by two shells on Monday, was the 15th Palestinian to be killed in Gaza since Friday in shell and air attacks. Israel has been firing about 300 shells a day at Gaza at an estimated cost of more than £125,000 a day, according to the Israeli media.

Yesterday, hundreds of mourners attended a funeral for 8 year old Hadel.

Seven other members of her family were also wounded Rawan Ghaban (18 months); Rana Ghaban (3); Munir Ghaban (4); Amneh Ghaban (9); Ghassan Ghaban (11); Bassam Ghaban (15) and Tahrir Ghaban (17).

The young girl's badly injured body was wrapped in a yellow flag of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah faction and covered in olive branches as it was carried through the town to the local cemetery.

Google News search Hadel Ghabeen result = 1 item

Good News for Easter

Gerald Kaufman, Labour Party MP for Gorton who has been frequently criticized for his views on the Israeli state on BBC Radio 4 called for trials in Britain or before an international tribunal for those accused of killing peace activist Tom Hurndall and filmmaker James Miller in 2003.

"If the Israelis don't agree to either of those then I think we have got to consider economic sanctions against Israel."

But Andrew Dismore, vice chairman of the Labour Friends of Israel group in Parliament, Labour MP for Hendon said such action would achieve little.Curiously Dismore is quoted in the Daily Telegraph 9th April in response to an academics (Prof Ron Geaves) strange notions about how Muslims would view the 7/7 bombings.

"For me, the definition of terrorism is when an innocent human life is lost. These bombings were an act of criminality and terrorism because that loss occurred.

"No motive can justify an act of terrorism. I think this kind of speculation is unhelpful because it is taken seriously by some sections of the community who want to demonise Muslims."

This voice of reason in the Labour Party ( and Friends of Israel etc.,) , who would never wish to demonise Mulsims ..... is also quoted in today's SUN on the news that " MAD mullah Omar Bakri Mohammed's family are leaving Britain to join him" ... "

“This is the news everyone is waiting to hear, so what do they want, flowers on the way out?”

Holocaust Memorial Day takes place every year on January 27th. It's origins lay in Gedenktag für die Opfer des Nationalsozialismus (Anniversary for the Victims of National Socialism) in Germany. Such a day was proposed by Andrew Dismore after a visit he made to Auschwitz and was taken up by Tony Blair in 2000 and adopted by the UN in 2004. Celebrations were originally organised by the Home Office but now are organised by the Holocaust Memorial Day Trust, who are now organising for 2007.

Pic (c) Edgweware Times of the multi ethnic A. Dismore MP (2nd from left) at a Hindu temple in (of all places) Golders Green, He is NOT the man on the right with his shopping.

94 years ago today ... we are now re-arranging the deck chairs Mr Bush

More here

LUKoil gets Investment Grade status

Vagit Alekperov's LUKoil became the 2nd nonstate Russian company to receive an investment-grade debt rating from Fitch Ratings, joining mining company Norilsk Nickel.

Fitch rated LUKoil's long-term debt BBB-, the lowest investment grade, Fitch said in a statement Thursday the same as Norilsk and one step below the government and state-run Russian Railways, or RZD.

Inside story today in the Times today how Conoco got 7.5% interest in LUKoil.

Nuking Iran - why it's not such a good idea Mr Bush

Union of Concerned Scientists Flash presentation here - watch then follow the links.

Mengistu / Murambatsvina / Zanu PF and his extradition ?

The Zimbabwe government on Tuesday said it would discuss the case of former Ethiopian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam with Addis Ababa only, rejecting calls by the opposition and civic groups to hand him back to his country for trial. (Pic Mengistu in his Ethiopian heyday)

Tichaona Jokonya Minister of Information and government spokesperson says, "We have an embassy of Ethiopia here ... we will respond when the embassy raises it [Mengistu's extradition]."

Jokonya spoke after the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party and the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) civic alliance on Tuesday urged President Robert Mugabe to follow the example of Nigerian leader Olusegun Obasanjo -- who handed over former Liberian dictator Charles Taylor for trial -- by extraditing Mengistu to Ethiopia.

Speaking separately, the spokesperson of the main faction of the MDC, Nelson Chamisa, said Mengistu should be taken back to Ethiopia not only so he could face trial for human rights abuses there, but also to stop him from imparting some of his crude methods to Mugabe and his government.

"What Nigeria did to Taylor is what Zimbabwe should do to Mengistu," said Chamisa.

He added: "What is even disturbing [in Zimbabwe's case] is the fact that he [Mengistu] is the mastermind of Operation Murambatsvina which displaced millions of Zimbabweans."

However Ambassador Vickie Huddleston, Charge’ d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa is unlikely to register a US change of heart having been responsible for getting him out of town in 1991. Dictator Melese is safe for a bit longer

There is no difference between Mengistu and Melese when it comes to its opponents. Both kill and believe in terrorizing people to stay in power.

Ethiopians will held both dictators acountable and sending Mengistu to Melese is like sending a thief who is disarmed to another armed thief.

Is a comment on an Ethiopian expat website which seems to be a common theme, the only difference meles kills in hundreds not thousands.

Despite calls by the international community, lead by the United States, for an arms embargo on the region, Russia has sold Su-27 fighters and Mi-24 attack helicopters to Ethiopia and MiG-29 to Eritrea, Bulgaria has shipped 100 or more surplus T55 tanks and China, Multiple Rocket Launchers to Ethiopia, while Eritrea has scoured the arms markets for new equipment. An impoverished Ethiopian economy has been further raided to provide the Ethiopian armed forces with arms worth over $300 million in the last two years.

In Harare, Ex President of Ethiopia Mengistu lives in the lap of luxury in the Gunhill suburb, with 24-hour security from the police VIP protection unit and the CIO at the Zimbabwean taxpayers' expense.

The Mugabe government has allocated Mengistu two large farms, one in Mazowe and another in Norton. Mengistu owns a separate home in Bluffhill.

He drives at least six luxury cars, including a Mercedes Benz, a Toyota Prado, a Toyota Avensis, a BMW and a twin-cab truck. Mengistu enjoys a special fuel scheme from the state's National Oil Company of Zimbabwe for personal use and for his farms, and his vehicles are serviced free of charge at the central mechanical equipment department.

In 1995, Mengistu survived an attempt on his life when an Eritrean, Solomon Ghebre Haile Michael, and Abraham Goletom Joseph tried to assassinate him at his Gunhill residence. The two were arrested and subsequently sentenced to 10 and five years' imprisonment respectively.

Mengistu was said to be concerned when the MDC nearly won the 2000 parliamentary elections and the 2002 presidential elections. Mengistu is said to have then made plans to relocate to either China or North Korea, but he knew very well that he would not get the same comforts as he did in Harare.

It is therefore in his interest that Zanu-PF rules forever.

Mengistu and Operation Murambatsvina

Sources claimed to be withing Zimbabwe's feared Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) say that Mengistu, now acts as President Robert Mugabe's security adviser, warned the Zimbabwean leader that the swelling slum and backyard population in Zimbabwe was creating a fertile ground for a mass uprising.

Called very extravagantlyOperation Murambatsvina, the controversial home-demolition exercise left at least 700 000 people homeless and affected another 2,4-million people, according to a report by United Nations special envoy Anna Tibaijuka.

first suggested the slum clearance idea to Mugabe in February, at one of the regular meetings he holds with the president and other senior security chiefs from the army, the CIO and the police.

After Mugabe accepted the idea, it was followed by several weeks of meticulous planning. Operation Murambatsvina began in May, a few weeks after the ruling Zanu-PF party trounced the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in a controversial parliamentary election.

Planning Operation Murambatsvina

The first meeting to plan the logistics of the operation was chaired by Mengistu himself at CIO headquarters in Harare, and was attended by defence forces commander General Constantine Chiwenga, Zimbabwe National Army Commander Philip Valerio Sibanda, Air Force of Zimbabwe Commander Air Marshal Perence Shiri, CIO director general Happyton Bonyongwe, his deputy, Menard Muzariri, and director of prisons Brigadier Zimondi. The police were represented by Deputy Commissioner Godwin Matanga.

Mengistu chaired other meetings , during which video clippings of Zimbabwe's 1998 food riots, with footage of mass uprisings in the Ukraine, Yugoslavia and Ethiopia, were shown to the group, which called itself Operation Murambatsvina's "high command".

After a series of meetings of the "high command", the group later met government ministers, mayors and administrators sympathetic to the government, such as Harare Commission chairperson Sekesai Makwavarara and Bindura mayor Martin Dinha, who endorsed the operation.

Mengistu then prepared a final document on the operation, which he submitted to Mugabe. The president endorsed it. Operation Murambatsvina, according to the plan, was to be implemented in phases, starting with flea markets suspected of fuelling economic crimes, mainly illegal foreign-currency trade

Operation Garikai / Hlalani Kuhle

A project to rebuild homes after Operation Murambatsvina was envisaged in Mengistu's plan, though the main objective would be to window-dress the main purpose of the slum-clearance exercise.

This project, later dubbed "Operation Garikai / Hlalani Kuhle ", would naturally not accommodate all the displaced people and would mainly benefit Zanu-PF supporters caught up in the destruction process.

Archbishop Pius Ncube says Garikai / Hlalani Kuhle (Safe and Prosper) is a joke, just lip service. He said the few houses built so far are tiny structures meant for government forces and not families. The archbishop also told us that pastors who had been looking for families which were dumped outside Bulawayo by the government a month ago had found them 130 kilometres away. They had been left in the middle of nowhere with no shelter and no water.

The Minister of State for Policy Implementation in the Office of the President and Cabinet, Cde Webster Shamu, said on 13th April 2006 Operation Garikai/Hlalani Kuhle was irreversible despite challenges facing the programme.

Here is a website with recordings of an interview in Zimbabwe with Mengistu in October 2005

The UK Embassy in Harare tells the reader that Trade has declined from UK exports of £78 million in 1998 to £34 million in 2002, while exports from Zimbabwe have declined from £123 million in 1998 to £86 million in 2002. Elsewhere on the site it says a number of Chevening scholarships are offered to Zimbabweans every year. "We are now inviting applications for the 2004/5 academic year."

150 years of synthetic dyes

It seems remarkable when Airbus have launched an aircraft that can seat 800 people and fly them 8,000 miles and the bearded loony Branson will take you to the edge of space, that synthetic dyestuffs were discovered only 150 years ago.

William H Perkins was a student at the Royal College of Chemistry under A.W.Hoffman (himself a student of Justin Leibig) . Just 18 he spent his Easter holiday (Good Friday was 23rd March in 1856) attempting at Hoffman’s suggestion to produce synthetic quinine, a known cure for malaria. (2 months later George Bernard Shaw was born, and James Clark Maxwell became Professor of Philosophy at Aberdeen when he started his revolutionary work on electricity and magnetism and on the kinetic theory of gases.)

Perkin’s first attempt , was to change allyltoluidine, which is an amine produced from coal tar, into quinine by oxidative condensation. On his first attempt he used the sulphate salt of allyltoluidine and potassium dichromate. From this reaction he obtained a reddish brown sludge.

On his second attempt he used the salt of aniline, after oxidative condensation, Perkin had obtained a black sludge.

Perkin started to inspect this black sludge that he had created and he found that when he dissolved this black precipitated in ethanol (or methanol depending who tells the story) it gave a rich purple colour. Perkin soon realised that he had synthesized a solution that had the properties of a dye, he called this product mauvine. A name derived from the Mallow flower or Malva. ( the molecular structure of mauveine was not known with certainty until 1994. It is a mixture of 2 closely related compounds, mauveine A, and mauveine B, which has one additional methyl group.)

History tells that strips from his sister’s silk dress became the first fabric to be died using this exciting new product – history also records she was none too pleased about it.

After obtaining a Patent, Perkins opened the factory Perkins & Sons that was built at Greenford Green near Harrow. Despite numerous of initial problems such as aniline not being readily available (although it was a waste product of the coal tar business) and therefore it had to be synthesized at the factory from benzene. But by the end of 1857 the factory was mass-producing mauvine, the first synthetic dye.

When both Queen Victoria and Empress Eugenie graced their wardrobes with mauvine, or mauve as it became known, the rest of the fashion world followed, confirming a demand of aniline dyes. It was however (PR , advertsing copywriters and marketing departments thriving then as now) called “Tyrrenhian Purple as the famed Tyrian purple of Regal imperial purple of Rome (as every fule kno) from as early as 1600 BC obtained exclusively from a gland of the Murex brandaris, a marine mollusk.)

In 1862 Queen Victoria (pic) appeared at the Royal Exhibition in a mauve silk gown – a very powerful product placement and endorsement. (However Perkin waited until 1895 to be knighted TB not being around then)

It is worth recording that when Condileezza Rice graced Blackburn recently the gutter press referred to her elegant trouser suit on day one of her Garnd Tour as “Mauve” – the BBC fashionistas were happy however to assure us all it was “dusky plum”.

At the ago of 35, Perkin sold his factory and then retired as a wealthy man. He then devoted the rest of his life to research in pure science.

Many new aniline dyes were introduced over the next few decades, including methyl violet (1861) and methylene blue (1876), paving the way for the introduction of copying pencils in the late 1870's Methyl violet was the most common aniline dye used in copying pencils, though methylene blue and the other soluble blue anilines were also common. (Remington makers of guns and sewing machines didn't produce the first commercial typwriter until 1873 and copy presses were used until well into the 1930's)

Elswhere, on the continent the there was rapid growth of the German dye industry CIBA 1860 & 1884, Chemische Industrie Basel (Swiss),Friedrich Bayer & Cie. 1861,Hoechst 1862,BASF 1865, Badische Analin- und- Soda- Fabrik, Aktien Gesellschaft für Analin Fabrikation AGFA 1867. In 1869. Graebe & Lieberman of BASF synthesized alizarin, a red dye to compete with natural "madder. " Perkin tried, but failed and then BASDF in 1880 produced synthetic indigo , mainstay now of the global jeans industry.

It also had an enormous impact on the Indian agricultural indigo industry which declined from. 1896 - 641,000 hectares to 1909 - 114,000 hectares. A loss of a cash crop worth US$13 MN a year. (qv polypropylene taking over from Sisal grown in Africa in 1960’s onwards).

There were of course spinoffs, mainly the development of synthetic drugs of which the greatest success was in 1899 when Bayer produced (acetylsalacylic acid) marketed very aggressively as Aspirin. In a special celebration at the World Cup this summer a 20 tonne, 10 metre circular Aspirin oberlisk will be displayed as part of a display of German inventions. . ( Aspirin =Acetyl + Spirsäure ( Spiraea Ulmaria -the plant they derived the salicylic acid from)

Aspirin was first sold as a powder. In 1915, the first Aspirin tablets were made. Interestingly, Aspirin ® and Heroin ® were once trademarks belonging to Bayer. After Germany lost World War I, Bayer was forced to give up both trademarks as part of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919.

This organic research also led to other spinoffs, . Alfred Nobel, Swedish chemist, inventeda "safe" form of TNT (Tri-Nitro-Toluene) called dynamite. Nobel convinced his inventions made war so dangerous no sane person would undertake it. When proved wrong, established Nobel Peace Prize. (qv MAD)


The giant 20 tonne , 10metre high sculpture entitled “Milestones in Medicine” on the Friedrich-Ebert-Platz in Berlin (near the Reichstag building) is one of 6 sculptures symbolising the richness of ideas and the spirit of invention which characterise Germany’s composers, writers, scientists, engineers and perfectionist and welcomes visitors to the World Cup 2006.

Haber-Bosch (hydrogenation) was invented by Fritz Haber and Karl Bosch who developed a successfully commercial process to Hydrogenate atmospheric nitrogen to make ammonia, then convert to nitrates needed to make explosives. A direct result from that was the Bergius process in 1916 to Hydrogenate carbon chains enabling the manufacture of margarine (Ugh!) and synthetic gasoline.

Bosch headed Interessengemeinschaft Farbenindustrie (IG Farben) which was a wartime consortium of BASF, AGFA. Bosch was personally anti-Nazi, but Hitler's economic policies were hugely beneficial to IG Farben. (Synthetic gasoline to fuel German tanks. ) After Bosch's retirement. IG provided Hitler with necessary technology for war, such as tetraethyl lead additives for aviation fuel, synthetic rubber, foodstuffs.

In it’s turn this resulted in IG Auschwitz a joint project with SS. Plan to work inmates to near death in synthetic rubber plant an estimated 300,000 Jews enslaved.

Centaura nigra L., Black Knapweed, Danish Sorthoved-Knopurt German Schwarze Flockenblume Swedish Svartklint Norwegian Svartknoppurt Finnish Mustakaunokki
Czech Chaber czarny Spanish Centaura negra

Black Good Friday ?

Has the market hit the top ? Should you, as the old saw has it, "Sell in May and go away" ? Yes, but if Uncle George decides to bomb Iran and we see US$100 a barrel oil which means US$850 an ounce gold ..... ? Just consider this exchange when Condi was on the Tim Russert show March 26th ...

RICE: Well, no one ever takes anything off the table, but I believe we're a long way from, from that...there are a lot of options once you're in the Security Council. .....

RUSSERT: Do you believe if the president chose to embark on military action with Iran, he would go to Congress for authorization first?

RICE: I'm not going to speculate on that. The president is clear that he keeps all of his options on the table.

Time for Pearl Harbour Pt.III ..dirty bomb in the Panama?

At the moment in the real world, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have risen above 5pc for the first time since 2002 on heavy selling by big institutions, sending tremors through the US mortgage and corporate credit markets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped 17/32 to 95-25/32, with the yield, moving opposite to its price, rising to 5.053 percent, its highest yield since June 2002, from 4.98 percent on Wednesday.

The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond ended off 25/32 at 90-22/32, with the yield at 5.11 percent, its highest yield since August 2004.

Euro zone government debt prices also fell in the global bonds sell-off. Yields on 10-year euro zone bonds jumped to an 18-month high of 3.96 percent.

Crude for May delivery (near month) finished up 1% 1 percent, at US$69.32 a barrel, previous record close was Aug. 30 of $69.81 as the effects of Katrina became apparent. COMEX June delivery gold settled at US$600.10 an ounce, Copper closed up 4.4 cents at $2.8155 a pound, after setting a fresh record of $2.819 a pound. The contract has gained 6.6% on the week. May silver futures closed up 19.2 cents at $12.855 an ounce. It ended last week at $12.07.

May unleaded gasoline in the US climbed 1.68 cents to close at $2.1079 a gallon -- up 6.6% from the end of last week. The US retail gas price has been climbing, with the average price per gallon last at $2.717, up more than 35 cents from a month ago and 20% above the year-ago level, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

In the Far East Taiwan's benchmark TAIEX up 0.69 percent at 6,855.74 to a 2 year high. The index got a boost from tourism and construction shares as Taiwan's government in a surprise move for conciliation with the mainland said it may lift a ban on visits by Chinese tourists to the island.

"We've started seeing a lot of money being repatriated into the Japanese equities market," said Matthew Smith, a manager at Smith Affiliated Capital. J-apanese holdings of foreign bonds has fallen by $70bn so far this year, according to data from Japan's fin-ance ministry.

Analysts said the surge in bond yields may have been accelerated by panic selling of Treasuries by hedge funds and US investment banks.

JP Morgan Chase is forecasting a 13pc fall in Amer-ica's S&P 500 stock index, and 12pc fall in the FTSE 100. "Our big concern is the combination of rising bond yields, sustained high energy prices and weakness in US housing," said Abhijit Chakrabortti, the global equity chief.

Rex Nutting Washington bureau chief at Market Watch pointed out at the end of March

"Profits surge to 40-year high - When will corporations spend some of their hoard?"

"U.S. corporate profits have increased 21.3% in the past year and now account for the largest share of national income in 40 years, the Commerce Department said Thursday.Strong productivity gains and subdued wage growth boosted before-tax profits to 11.6% of national income in the fourth quarter of 2005, the biggest share since the summer of 1966.

For all of 2005, before-tax profits totaled $1.35 trillion, up from $1.16 trillion in 2004 and just $767 billion in 2001. Meanwhile, the share of national income going to wage and salary workers has fallen to 56.9%. Except for a brief period in 1997, that's the lowest share for labor income since 1966.

Profits have been so high because almost all of the benefits from productivity improvements are flowing to the owners of capital rather than to the workers. While profits are up 21.3% in the past year, labor compensation is up just 5.5%. After adjusting for inflation, population growth and taxes, real disposable per capita incomes are up just 0.5% in the past year.

Signs of the times ? .. and for a Happy Easter go read Nur al Cubicle

Mengistu / Mugabe and the Falashah and President Bush Snr.

Operation Promise, is a US$160 Mn initiative of United Jewish Communities and the Jewish Federations of North America, and will help bring remaining Ethiopian Jews to Israel and help mainstream the entire Ethiopian-Israeli community. Israel organised the airlifting of 20,000 Ethiopian Jews to Israel in 1984 and another 15,000 members of the community in 1991.

In Ethiopia, 20,000 or more wait to make aliyah Many in the northern Gondar region of the the Falasha Mura, (Falashas—the alien ones, the invaders) many of whom were forced to convert to Christianity.many of whom have been forced to convert to Christianity.

The first modern contact with the now oppressed community came in 1769, when Scottish explorer James Bruce stumbled upon them while searching for the source of the Nile River.

After Selassie was replaced Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, whose Marxist-Leninist dictatorship increased the threat to the Beta Israel. During the weeks surrounding Mengistu's coup, an estimated 2,500 Jews were killed and 7,000 became homeless.

After taking office in 1977, Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin was eager to facilitate the rescue of Ethiopia's Jews, and so Israel entered into a period of selling arms to the Mariam government in hopes that Ethiopia would allow Jews to leave for Israel. In 1977, Begin asked President Mengistu to allow 200 Ethiopian Jews to leave for Israel aboard an Israeli military jet that had emptied its military cargo and was returning to Israel.

Under a news blackout for security reasons, Operation Moses began on November 18, 1984, and ended six weeks later on January 5, 1985. In that time, almost 8,000 Jews were rescued and brought to Israel.

In 1985, then Vice President George Bush arranged a CIA-sponsored follow-up mission to Operation Moses. Operation Joshua brought an additional 800 Beta Israel from Sudan to Israel.

In November 1990, Ethiopia and Israel agreed to allow Ethiopian Jews to move to Israel under the context of "family reunification." It soon became clear, however, that Mengistu was willing to allow Ethiopian Jews to leave outside of the guise of reunification. November and December, 1990, showed increased numbers of Ethiopians leaving for Israel.

In early 1991, Eritrean and Tigrean rebels began a concerted attack on Mengistu forces, meeting with surprising success for the first time since the civil war began in 1975. With the rebel armies advancing each day, Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam fled his country in early May. (The Americans through the offices of the US Ambassador found him a refuge in Zimbabwe where he lives to this day in considerable splendour under the protection of Robert Mugabe)

Operation Solomon was undertaken by the Likud government of Yitzhak Shamir and authorized a special permit for the Israeli airline, El Al, to fly on the Jewish Sabbath. On Friday, May 24, and continuing non-stop for 36 hours, a total of 34 El Al jumbo jets and Hercules C-130s—seats removed to accommodate the maximum number of Ethiopians.

A total of 14,324 Ethiopian Jews were rescued and resettled in Israel, a modern exodus of the grandest design.

Meanwhile in Israel, 100,000 Ethiopians struggle to find their way. Most are illiterate, both in Hebrew and in their native Amharic. Most face the challenge of shifting from an agrarian livelihood to an urban workforce. Families break down as the traditional elder-centered power structure is upended, and younger generations acclimate and leave behind parents and grandparents. Among the larger Israeli community, there is resentment over the support they receive. (The Israeli government may spend as much as $100,000 for services to each Ethiopian over his or her lifetime.) And sadly, racism has emerged.

Melkeinech Avera, 95, was the Leader of his village in Ethiopia. Melkeinech Avera, 95, was the was wealthy by any standard. A large and loving family and a big farm, crops and animals .... coming to Jerusalem was his dream. He would do anything – and leave everything – to make that dream come true for himself and his family. He was in his 60s when the trip began; and the walk through the Sudanese desert and the refugee camps took their toll. Melkeinech got them to Israel. He hasn’t worked since they arrived, and he’s had great difficulty learning Hebrew, Melkeinech is satisfied that he got his family to Israel.

Matti Elias is the elder statesman of the Ethiopian community in Israel. He arrived in 1956, with 14 other high school students. They were brought for a year; and Mr. Elias stayed, married a kibbutznik and still lives on the kibbutz.

He says , "“Our community – the Madele family, and the other nearly 100,000 Ethiopians now living in Israel – need education, employment and leadership. We are a strong, determined people, and with help from North American Jews and our family here in Israel, we will find our place in this society.”

Meanwhile Mengistu enjoys the sun. Read more here

China / US Trade - it swings both ways

When Dubya was in China last November Boeing announced an order for 150 single aisle 737 airliners.Chinese airlines confirmed orders for 50 of them in December and a further 20 at the end of January.In advance of the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States next week (April 18 to 22) have confirmed the remaining 80 single aisle aircraft.

This is part of 27 contracts that have been sealed with a total of US$16.2 Bn to be to coincide with his visit by 200 Chinese businessmen representing 110 enterprises.

These contracts include (as well as the Boeing deal) US$1 Bn with electronics service provider Flextronics (HQ in Singapore, Software Div. was Hughes Software 60% of Flextronics' Asian operations are located in China.) and a software contract of US$ 300 Mn with Qualcomm Inc.,(leading developer and innovator of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA)) US$ 560 with telecommunications giant Motorola and a US$ 350 Mn contract with General Electrics (named "World's Most Admired" Company in FORTUNE magazine's annual poll of executives), for power equipment and other machinery.

Major US car manufacturers were also awarded contracts including one worth 300 million dollars for General Motors and a 110-million-dollar deal with Ford Motor, the report said.

It must be remembered of course that whilst this is heralded as a big hi tech deal a great deal of the composites fabrication of the forthcoming twin engined Boeing 787 Dreamliner will be made in China to be shipped to Everett to join parts from a worldwide supply chain, including leading edge French and Japanese In Flight entertainment systems.Chengdu Aircraft Industrial (Group) Co. Ltd will provide rudders Today, more than 3,400 Boeing airplanes -- one third of Boeing's world fleet -- have major parts and assemblies built in China. Examples of major parts and assemblies built for Boeing by Chinese industry include the 737 horizontal stabilizer from Shanghai Aircraft Corp., 737 vertical fin from Xian Aircraft Corp., 737 tail section modules from Shenyang Aircraft Corp., and 757 empennage and aft fuselage section from Chengdu Aircraft Corp. All are AVIC I affiliates.

Danish wind turbine company Vestas have decided to double the size of their new Tienjin factory by the middle of 2007, will double the original factory’s annual production capacity from approximately 600 blades to approximately 1,200 blades and increase staff from 240 to 400 employees.Total investment will be Euros 13 Mn.

In the US 2006 is expected to be an even bigger year for wind energy installations (now in 30 states) thanks to the extension by Congress of the wind energy production credit before it expired for the first time in the credit’s history. Installations will exceed 3,000MW. The final tally of 2,431MW boosted the cumulative US installed wind power fleet by over 35%, bringing the industry’s total generating capacity to 9,149MW.

As a result, Vestas who have a huge share of the US market (they continue to lose money however, year on year) will be shipping many of those blades (and turbine nacelles) to the US from China

So Hi tech transfer goes both ways.... so long as the tax credits bear up for Salomon Bros one of the US' biggest wind energy investors.


China / US Exports Imports Balance Millions of US$

January / Feb 2006 Exports 7,581.1 Imports 39,331.5 Net Balance -31,750.4
January / Feb 2005 Exports 5,691.4 Imports 35,790.0 Net Balance -29,100.4

Total 2005 Exports 41,836.5 Imports 43,462.3 Total -201,625.8

Iran - Armchair generals disagree - more confusion

Anton Le Guardia in an article in the Daily Telegraph 12th August 2005 "Has Iran reached nuclear point of no return?" quotes Mark Fitzpatrick, a counter-proliferation specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), saying that even if Iran can operate a basic unit of 164 machines efficiently and for a sustained period of time, it would take 11 years for it to make enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb.

Which is curious because the BBC report " Iran urged to stop nuclear work" of the same date says " Iran could be in a position to produce enough fissile nuclear material to make a nuclear bomb within 3-5 years, according to the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies."

It is even more curious because in a BBC report of 12th Jan 2006 by Sarah Buckley and Paul Rincon "Iran 'years' from nuclear bomb'"

The IISS (presumably the same Mark Fitzpatrick who is quoted elsewhere in the article) says "So given these limitations, the IISS believes it would take Iran at least a decade to produce enough HEU for a single nuclear weapon.

Frank Barnaby, consultant for the UK security think tank the Oxford Research Group is also quoted as saying""The CIA says 10 years to a bomb using highly enriched uranium and that is a reasonable and realistic figure in my opinion," he said.

This curious discrepancy was taken up by eagle eyed Gabriele Zamparini at the Cat's Dream with Dear Steve Herrmann, Editor, BBC News Online, the result of which was (indirectly) an e-mail from the crystal ball gazing Mark Fitzpatrick

Dear Ms. (! sic) Zamparini,
Thank you for noting this and alerting me. I have just spoken to a reporter at reporter at BBC who undertook to have the discrepancy corrected.

A detailed IISS report last September concluded that if Iran threw caution to the wind and ignored international reactions, it could produce enough HEU for one weapon by the end of the decade at the earliest. The clock on that five-year timeline began ticking in January when Iran resumed the enrichment, although it actually resumed enrichment-related work in August. In the past couple weeks, more than one reputable organization has concluded that three years is the shortest timeline. Given the speed at which Iran is moving, it is hard to dispute the three year figure. But these timeline estimates are all a bit of a crapshoot. I have been saying that estimates of 3, 5 and even 10 years are all within the margin of error, because it is unknowable, especially if IAEA inspectors cannot have greater access than they have right now.

The 11-year figure I gave the Guardian was if the Iranians stopped at 164 centrifuges. They plan to go far beyond that.

Regards,
Mark Fitzpatrick

Mark Fitzpatrick
Senior Fellow for Non-Proliferation
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Arundel House, 13-15 Arundel Street
Temple Place, London WC2R 3DX

Switchboard: +44(020) 7379 7676
Fax: + 44(0)20 7836 31 08
E-mail: Fitzpatrick@iiss.org
web site: www.iiss.org

There then follows copies of a protracted correspondence which also resulted inthe original BBC story changing the time Iran would need to produce a weapon from 3 years to 3-5 years.

It is also interesting to see the same Mark Fitzpatrick is quoted in How Close Is Iran to the Bomb? Jan 23, 2006 ("Student Movement Coordination Committee for Democracy in Iran" (SMCCDI))"How quickly can Iran complete the complex at Natanz, planned to house 50,000 centrifuges in vast underground halls? Allows Mark Fitzpatrick of IISS, "Estimating timelines can be a trap." Interestingly this article can also be found (with the same quote) on the IISS website here.

Then lo and behold Bloomberg Germany reports late yesterday !!!!!

Iran Could Produce Nuclear Bomb in 16 Days, U.S. Says

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Iran, defying United Nations Security Council demands to halt its nuclear program, may be capable of making a nuclear bomb within 16 days, a U.S. State Department official said.

Iran will move to ``industrial scale'' uranium enrichment involving 54,000 centrifuges at its Natanz plant, the Associated Press quoted deputy nuclear chief Mohammad Saeedi as telling state-run television today.

``Using those 50,000 centrifuges they could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in 16 days,'' Stephen Rademaker, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, told reporters today in Moscow.

So there you have it, 16 days, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years.Someone obviously thinks it's true hereand
here

Now the next question is, "How long will it take the combined forces of Israel and the US to strike at the nuclear resources of Iran and with what weapons ?" 16 days ? 3 years, 5 years , 10 years ?

The Foreign Policy Centre issued a Press release in which Hugh Barnes , Director of Democracy and Conflict at The Foreign Policy Centre and co-author of ‘Understanding Iran’, today said:
“A plan to attack Iran with nuclear weapons smacks not just of a deranged strategic miscalculation but of sheer hypocrisy and idiocy.

The author believe that there remain a large number of diplomatic options that would be acceptable to Iran, the United States and the EU to resolve the current crisis. Military action would be a highly dangerous move that could damage regional security, not prevent nuclear proliferation, encourage acts of terrorism and would of course result in civilian deaths."

"Both sides of this dispute are in danger of talking themselves into a war - they need to take a deep breath and calm down."

US has Con-Fusion bomb. Iran has no bomb

Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb
U.S. Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements

By Dafna Linzer Washington Post Tuesday, August 2, 2005

"A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis.

The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House.

The NIE, ordered by the National Intelligence Council in January, is the first major review since 2001 of what is known and what is unknown about Iran

Until recently, Iran was judged, according to February testimony by Vice Adm. Lowell E. Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, to be within five years of the capability to make a nuclear weapon.

Last month, U.S. officials shared some data on the missile program with U.N. nuclear inspectors, based on drawings obtained last November. The documents include design modifications for Iran's Shahab-3 missile to make the room required for a nuclear warhead, U.S. and foreign officials said." ........ (That was the "exclusive information" about retrofitting nuclear warheads "revealed" in the Daily Telegraph by Con Coughlin this week !!!)

Well that's a relief, so Tony won't be telling us that missiles will be landing in Horse Guards parade in 45 minutes ... Phew... put your pens away Daily Telegraph leader writers ....

USAF Fairford B-2 bombers have arrived

Two Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit Stealth Bombers and two B-1B multi-role bombers have been spotted at the Fairford RAF base over the last week (Green Party). The base, in rural Gloucestershire, last saw action in 2003 when B-52 bombers flew from there to bomb Iraq. It is the largest USAF bomber base in Europe and the only one with maintenance facilities for the B-2. These B-2 and B1 -B bombers are also based at Whiteman AFB Miss. Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and Guam in the Pacific.

You can see plenty of photographs, especially the sinister B-2 at the unofficial Fairdford Base site here taken in the last few days.

The Wilts and Glos Standard (6/04/06) reports that defence chiefs have denied the visit of top-secret bombers to RAF Fairford last week have anything to do with a future operation in Iran. A spokesperson said: "That is complete rubbish. Fairford is not being used for that purpose." However no-one from US Air Force was available for comment on future deployment of the bombers.

The Countdown to War Paul Rogers openDemocracy

He quotes Joseph Cirincione, Director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in an article "Fool me Twice" on 27 March 2006, notes the way in which the US administration is increasingly presenting Iran as the key threat to the region can no longer be dismissed as posturing, but may rather "be a coordinated campaign to prepare the way for a military strike on Iran".

Rogers notes that a few days after Cirincione's piece was published, the Sunday Telegraph reported ("A direct strike might be a necessary last resort.") that British military chiefs were meeting to consider the consequences of a US strike on Iran. The paper presented a detailed assessment, including striking graphics, of what an attack would entail.

He also details how In the approach to the Iraq war, USAF's's 457th air expeditionary wing was based at Fairford; fourteen B-52s flew in from Minot (North Dakota) and deployed there for 7 weeks while conducting more than a hundred bombing sorties over Iraq.

It is likely that the first such exercise in preparation for action over Iran took place last week when three B-2s flew into Fairford within a few days in what appears to be the first orchestrated deployment of this kind. This may well be an indicator of training now underway.

The second signal he says will be a sudden increase in base security at Fairford, including the policing of an extended cordon and closure of local roads to minimise any external observation of activities there.

Pic Ranunculus ficaria common UK spring flower of the buttercup family, now well in flower much nicer to contemplate than bombing Iran.