Chess games in the Soviet republics.....

Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova formed GUAM on October 10, 1997 at the summit of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg. In April 1999, at the meeting of GUAM states in Washington, during the celebration of the 50th anniversary of NATO, Uzbekistan was admitted into the organization, and it was re- named GUUAM.

In June 2002 Uzbekistan stated that it remains within GUUAM as an observer and reserves the right not to participate in some functions. The US in late 2000 the US allocated $45 million to the alliance's five members to be spent as they considered appropriate.

At the GUUAM summit in Chisinau, Moldova on May 5th Moldova assumed the chairmanship of the organization. Uzbekistan’s President lslam Karimov sent a message to Moldova’s president Vladimir Voronin on May 3 announcing about the withdrawal of his country from GUUAM. The explanatory letter claimed that “because of its geographic position Uzbekistan sees no ways for the realization of its interests in the areas of economy and security in the framework of the new initiatives and projects announced by GUUAM.”

The Uzbek leaders have stayed away from the GUUAM summit in Chisinau because, in Tashkent’s opinion, GUUAM has turned into a “political organization.” Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili supported by President Yuschenko of the Ukraine, made a call at the Chisinau summit for “a third wave of revolutions” in the post-Soviet space. The Georgian leader, together with Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus -- who was present at the summit as an observer -- also called for adopting a resolution on the protection of freedom and democracy in Belarus although this was not supported by the Presidents of Azerbaijan, Moldova and Ukraine.

GUUAM's face has changed since this 2002 summit pic, Azerbaijan's Heidar Aliyev (GONE), Georgia's Eduard Shevardnadze (GONE) , Ukraine's Leonid Kuchma (GONE), and Moldova's Vladimir Voronin? Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov has meanwhile been and GONE.

Observers see the move confirming a geo - political turn by Karimov away from the US towards Russia and a way to diminish “revolutionary” pressure on his totalitarian regime. The March “tulip” revolution in Kyrgyzstan, seems to have heightened Karimov’s sense of political insecurity.

The Uzbek decision was not a surprise, in recent years they have consistently ignored GUUAM and after a visit to Tashkent on April 17/18th Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli, told reporters that Uzbekistan would not be participating in the forthcoming GUUAM summit in Moldova.

It must be noted that The Presidents of Lithuania, Romania and Poland, as well as Steven Mann U.S. Department of State senior negotiator for Eurasian conflicts and Caspian energy issues were present as observers at the summit. Many observers see this as a preparatory stage to extending membership of the organisation.

Interestingly, on May 12th the US senate passed without a vote a resolution (S. Res. 139) expressing support for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia and proposed by Republican Senior Se, Frist. Senator Reid (D) summed up the bi-partisan feeling of the House .. ” Georgian sovereignty and independence has been put at some risk recently through the continued basing of Russian troops on Georgian soil. Previous agreements negotiated with the Russian government calling for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops have been ignored. Some 3,000 Russian military personnel still remain in Georgia. It is time for them to go. I am confident that President Bush carried that message to President Putin during his recent visit.”

In Moscow the Head of the State Duma committee on international affairs Konstantin Kosachev is reported (Novosti) that there is no reason to talk of a “velvet revolution” being schemed currently for Uzbekistan.

"Talking of a “velvet revolution” scheme is premature. It is rather a popular reaction to what is going on in Uzbekistan and the adjacent states," Kosachev told journalists, having noted that there were "no grounds" to talk of third countries being involved. However Alexei Makarkin, deputy general director of the Russian Center of Political Technologies said that the blame for the export of "colour revolutions" is traditionally put on the West, Makarkin claims that the situation in Uzbekistan is completely different. The West, including the U.S., will not benefit from destabilization in a country so close to Afghanistan.

Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov are to hold talks about withdrawal of Russian military bases in on the sideline of the Council of Europe Heads of State and Government Summit in warsaw on May 16-17th.

Pissing on their Allies ... an ane old song.

The US hung on to the Shah, to the bitter end, but Noriega, Saddam,(who sold his oil in Euros not US$'s) ceased being “our sonofabitch” – maybe Mr Karimov can see the writing on the wall. It will be interesting to see who ends up in the slammer soonest, Frist or Karimov.

NB Meanwhile in Moscow there are calls for the share of the Euro in the Russian gold and foreign currency reserves to be increased to 50 % which is calculated to have a very unsettling impact on the US Dollar / Euro exchange rate on Monday 16th May.