London to flood like NOLA ?

The London Assembly's Environment Committee says 5% of east London flood defences are “poor” or “very poor” in a new report. The report empasises the web of bodies producing planning policies and strategies in the Thames Gateway growth leaving engineers, developers and architects uncertain about standards for new building.

Chairman Darren Johnson, says:

"We are extremely concerned about development plans for East London and the building of 120,000 new homes (= to 5% of current housing stock in GLC) in Thames Gateway by 2016. "These plans are simply not taking the flood risk issue seriously enough. Structured responsibility for control of new developments is essential in this area."

1.25 million people are already at risk from flooding by the Thames and a major flood in the Thames Gateway could cost as much as £12 billion. Munich Re in January 2005 put London into the Megarisk category because if it's risk of serious flooding.

16 opportunity and intensification areas are discussed in the East London Sub-regional Development Framework. These areas are expected to site 40 – 45 per cent of the housing and 85 per cent of new jobs planned until 2016 for the sub-region. Of these sites only 2 are considered to have no need for defences against flooding risk. 12 are at risk of tidal flooding and 2 more are at risk from fluvial flooding.

‘Initial calculations suggested that a major flood in the Gateway could cost between £12-16 billion, with about £4-5 billion coming from the new developments if precautions are not taken in the new developments.’

Says the Association of British Insurers, which observation precedes the introduction of increased insurance premiums for all.

In early 2004, we were told by the Environment agency that 19 kms of the 223 kms of tidal flood defences ‘are in less-than-satisfactory condition’ = 8% of the defences. ‘there are parts where the condition of the defences is poor or very poor, and that affects the chance that the defence could breach under an extreme flood. It is about five per cent of the defences …

Now where have we heard this sort of thing before ? ... New Orleans ?

Maybe in the anxiety to grab the prestige of running the Olympics in 2012 someone has made assumptions which cannot be substantiated. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in a 156 page report said that if the government provided only the legal minimum flood protection risk over the next 20 years, flood plains could become "ghettos" of unsellable homes, where there would be "more potential for loss of life"

Recent blogs on same topic here