Why Saddam smiles

"There is laughter like the fountains in that face of all men feared,
It stirs the forest darkness, the darkness of his beard;
It curls the blood-red crescent, the crescent of his lips; "

Lepanto : G K Chesterton

It is not a mystery, nor is it a secret that the illegal invasion of Iraq was prompted by the overweeing idea and belief that military force is an effective tool for ensuring control over foreign sources of oil.

FD Roosevelt, in February 1945, promised King Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia that the United States would establish a military protectorate over his country in return for privileged access to Saudi oil . Eventually this rigid belief in the use of military force to secure supplies of ME oil led to the invasion of Iraq.

Now, 30 mnths after that invasion, the huge and growing Iraqi quagmire has demonstrated that the application of military force can (and does) have the very opposite effect: It can diminish - rather than enhance - America's access to foreign oil.

Two factors affected the US decision, blithely supported by the gormless Blair whose grasp of global real politik was as shallow and short term as any other policy he has pursued in power.

One was access to ME oil protected by Western military might.

The other was the need to prevent the spread of the sale of oil in anything other than US Dollars. Saddam’s approval to sell oil in Euros for the Oil for Food Program by UN and banking the Euro60Bn proceeds at Paribas Bank in Paris. The effect of which was to lead to a decline in the global oil/dollar hegemony allowing the US to run massive trade deficits and shower the world with IOU’s enabking the US consumer access to low cost products from the wage slaves of the Far east. This decision by Saddam immediately Bush took office is the secret and never mentioned trigger that set the whole military farrago in motion, with it’s self-seeking lies, global dishonesty and curious blinkering by world leaders – even when Kofi Annan declared the invasion as illegal. (Since then there has been a 30% (ish) decline of the US $ against the Euro)

Vice President Dick Cheney said , in an August 2002 speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, the US needed to retain control over Persian Gulf oil supplies when listing various reasons for toppling Saddam Hussein.

In the New York Times in February 2003 just before they let slip the dogs of war an oil executive was quoted, "For any oil company being in Iraq is like being a kid in FAO Schwarz." Many more saw invasion as the key to unlock the oil and reduce the evil influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and also smash the power of the Muslim Arab states facing Israel.

For the Tony Sopranos on the Beltway, this was an opportunity to show the Bush Doctrine “preventive war is a practical and legitimate response to possible weapons-of-mass-destruction ambitions on the part of potential adversaries”, and when occupied by American and Allied forces, Iraq would pump ever increasing amounts of petroleum from its vast and prolific reserves. Luvvly jubbly.

This sleepwalk to disaster was constantly re-enforced by the cheerleaders of the cause. The Department of Energy (DoE), stated with cocksure confidence in late 2002 that, given the investment (presumably by US oil co’s), Iraq could quickly double its production from the then-daily level of 2.5 million barrels to 5 million barrels or more.

At the State Department, the Future of Iraq Project set up a Working Group on Oil and Energy , aided by the oleaginous and plainly untrustworthy Iraqi exile, mohair suited and elegantly shod and heavily pomaded, Ahmed Chalabi (boosted by such as Judith Miller in the NYT) to plan the privatisation of Iraqi oil assets and the rapid introduction of Western capital and expertise into the local industry. The wannabe banker, wanted on embezzlement charges of US$600MN in Jordan, stated with confidence in September 2002. "American companies will have a big shot at Iraqi oil."

Oil would not only flow, so would the money – enough to pay for the trouble of getting there to steal it. "We can afford it," White House economic adviser Larry Lindsey said of the planned US invasion, because rising Iraqi oil output would invigorate the US economy.

He told the Wall Street Journal in September 2002 "When there is regime change in Iraq, you could add 3 to 5 million barrels [per day] of production to world supply."

"Successful prosecution of the war would be good for the economy," said the then deputy secretary of Defence Paul Wolfowitz to a congressional panel, "Iraq oil revenues could bring between $50 billion and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three years. We're dealing with a country that could really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon." That such a masterly exponent of business economics is now in charge of the World Bank must be a great comfort to some – well maybe his mother.

As a result the invasion plans focussed establishing early control of Iraqi oil fields and installations during the first days of the war and the important Oil Ministry in Baghdad and it’s essential records.. some probably to be destroyed rather quickly.

"Navy Seals seized two Iraqi oil terminals in bold raids that ended early this morning, overwhelming lightly armed Iraqi guards and claiming a bloodless victory in the battle for Iraq's vast oil empire." Said an excited reporter – terminals that were later the first to be raided by suicide bombing insurgents, who later successfully stopped the flow of oil for 24 hours.

Rumsfeld’s vision as a master military planner, his “Baghdad Lite” master plan exposed very rapidly the shortage of force to protect what they had seized – a signal for the unyoked delirious and desperate Iraqis, freed from Sddam’s jackboot to go on a looting spree that damaged the nascent authority of the military occupation and the US-backed interim government of expatriate freebooters and carpet baggers.

Of course the US military emphasis on controlling the oil, fed, if it was necessary the belief that this was not liberation from tyranny but merely a substitution of tyrants anxious to steal their birthright. The Bush administration, and it’s military commanders haven’t recovered from this disastrous chain of events.

The association between the Coalition invasion and the attempted rape of the State’s oil is clearly central to the various insurgents' conflicting and hazy ideologies. "The insurgents used these plans of oil privatisation ," says Falah Alijbury an Iraqi consultant to foment the struggle… describing it.. "Look, you're losing your country, you're losing your resources to a bunch of wealthy billionaires who want to take you over and make your life miserable."

The many, varied, well funded insurgencies, each with disparate religious or even criminal agendas are aware of Washington's intent to finance its war and occupation through sales of Iraqi petroleum. From the off they have expended a great deal of manpower, resource, and blackmail to sabotage Iraq's pipelines, pumping stations, and loading terminals, this was their primary strategic objective, preparing to sacrifice income now for future benefits.

Iraqi Pipeline Watch have a complete and up to date daily listing of each attack , atotal of over 900 events at least.

At present, efforts are concentrated on the Kirkuk-to-Ceyhan export pipeline (Task Force Shield ) in the north, near Iraq's border with Turkey; and offshore loading terminals in the south, on the edge of the Persian Gulf.

Despite the cost in men and materiel, the overwhelming military force, mastery both on land and in the air ,shipments and therefore income are declining. Current estimates of production are now 1.6 MN bpd against the pre-war 2.3 Mn. Bpd.

Damage is not only physical but pervasive, corruption in the Oil Ministry (headed by the ever present Ahmed Chelabi , who like the solid pieces at the sewage farm consistently appears to rise to the surface) and severe differences between the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Shi'ites(themselves with schismatic clan splits) over the future allocation of oil revenues.

Corruption, black-market transactions, straight theft, at all levels from the dishonest tanker driver to leaders and parliamentary members continues unrelentingly. Typically, it suits those involved to blame these losses on wild insurgents.

Furthermore Iraqi oil executives are recklessly using faulty pumping methods, permanently damaging underground reservoirs. In Iraq's main Rumailia oilfield, one of the world's largest, even though water injection systems (used to maintain underground pressure) have failed; they continue to pump – when electricity is available – which is less than before the invasion. Oil engineers expect this will inevitably lead to a permanent decline in production. Effectivel killing the goos that lays the golden eggs.

Of course the referendum has highlighted the seismic shifts in the three ethnic / religious blocs, which the referendum has only quantified the extent of the divisions within the nation and will inevitability lead to partition (results, unscrutinised by external bodies, are still awaited). Which will suit both the oil rich Kurds and the Shia leaving the relatively impoverished but warlike Sunni’s with some grievance to fight for as well as control over Baghdad.

Even in world clamouring for oil, production in Iraq will be depressed for years, regardless of the blood spilt, the wars raged, the dollars spent. American military action will not bring democracy, only division with an Iranian dominated Shia South, a happy isolated and self contained, defensive and well armed militaristic Kurdish North, and a dispossessed Baghdad and Sunni regions. The use of massive military force to procure Iraqi oil, did not achieve its aim and has made the situation worse.

There is one bright point for the Lunatics of the Beltway, and the neaderthal armchair warriors of the haunts of NY Zionism, the flows of world oil are still regulated in US dollars, the Iraqi state funds transferred from paris to New York under the watchful eye of Morgan Stanley where it is silently being squandered on pointless and seemingly endless military endeavour.

There is now a slow realisation that the US is now in the hands of its oil refiners – plain for many years, for those who would look and evaluate – and who have every intention of exploiting their monopoly powers.This has been made worse by nature. Katrina struck a blow to the US's domestic oil industry, reliance on imports will grow from about 53% of total consumption in 2002 to 66% by 2025 even if Alaska is laid waste.

The Gulf of Mexico – made more productive by Selim Zilkha who cleverly massaged elderly data in combination with computer simulations to revive the Gulf oil and gas Industry. Soaring insurance premiums will deter re-investment because even with oil at US$60 per barrel investors simply wont risk billions of dollars to install new platforms ready for sinking in Natures next outburst of malign force.

So Uncle Sam needs to turn to the unstable countries of central Asia – where he is being kicked out by Karimov, and efforts in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgistan and the route of the trans Afghan pipeline become even more problematic.

Without hegemony in the Middle East – and notwithstanding the Iranian threat to set up their own oil bourse this month ,trading oil in Euros, and with increasingly fragile supplies from the Middle East, Uncle Sam must turn to South America and Africa.

Where he has to negotiate with president Hugo Chavez, who started the whole roiling mess off in 2001 as President of OPEC and encouraged Saddam to sell his oil in Euros.

If past experience is any indication, US policymakers will respond to the dilemma of the growing dependence by the US on unstable foreign providers by sending more and more American military forces to these areas. It is evident that their efforts have also turned to Africa – where China has of course been establishing relation for may years with Uganda, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Sudan, Nigeria and Ghana.

Mired with his problems with his Supreme Court nomination , the warrant for arrest of Tom Delay, Bill Frists bad memory, Libby and Rove’s (and maybe Cheney’s) forthcoming indictments over Plame gate, Abramoff's dishonesty and murky deals, Gannon, Mclellans persistent lies, and the whole fast crumbling PR circus, you may be certain that the remnants of the neo con gang will maintain their blind faith in the efficacy of military force as a tool for securing access to foreign sources of petroleum. They also maintain a breathy silence as Likud's expansionist agenda, and erection of Palestinian Bantustans marooned on the Zionist West Bank, rolls merrily along, whilst the world , in the "fog of war" is distracted. And silent.

The US policy of overwhelming military might , is clearly, delusional.

A lot of this Administration’s overseas policies have been and remain so.

They will however, for want of any other, and better ideas, persist in risking the lives of young Americans, Blair will risk British lives with their blinkered adherence to a false, failed and frightening Hobbesian strategy.

Meanwhile oil future hold steady above US$60 a barrel, three times the price before Dubya’s gang of Beltway conspirators fucked over the UN and set in motion the Juggernaut of American military power in the Middle East.

Mr Saddam could afford a wry smile in the dock yesterday … wily Aziz, who has evidently cut a deal for compliance with his “liberators”, will no doubt join his old boss in smiling, relaxing in greater comfort in the leafy purlieus of Amman.

"They gather and they wonder and give worship to Mahound.
And he saith, "Break up the mountains where the hermit-folk can hide,
And sift the red and silver sands lest bone of saint abide,
And chase the Giaours flying night and day, not giving rest,
For that which was our trouble comes again out of the west. "

Lepanto


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