What is Hekmatyar up to?

There is one major paradox in Iran's policy on Afghanistan: the "release" of the notorious warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in February 2002. Iran wants a stable Afghanistan to deal with vital issues such as drug trafficking and the refugee problem, but also to nurture the booming trade between Mashhad and Herat, where there are regional plans to integrate Central Asia, Pakistan and India; the routes of the ancient Silk Road. So why did Iran unleash Hekmatyar, one of the most destructive and destabilizing factors in modern Afghan history?

Perhaps the reason for Iran to let Hekmatyar go was security, not for Afghanistan, but for Iran. The Islamic Republic's main concern is to be squeezed in between two US armies, stationed right on its western and eastern borders (Iraq and Afghanistan), with the option to strike at the whim of hardliners in Washington.

To promote instability in Afghanistan eases their worries.

Hekmatyar could not have left Iran safely,crossed to eastern Afghanistan, without assistance from Iran's government. It was Iran's Supreme National Security Council that took the decision to expel Hekmatyar from his Iranian exile and too many Iranian ministers were involved on the issue for Hekmatyar to "disappear" unnoticed. Hekmatyar may have lived low profile in his villa in northern Tehran, but one can be sure that he was under strict surveillance by Vevak - Iranian intelligence.

So what is Hekmatyar up to?

It is evident that there are an increasing number of incidents in Waziristan and now, as the NATO forces start to arrive in Helmund, Kabul.

Hekmatyr made a call to the faithful in January, he has been active for some time now.

So what is Hekmatyar up to?

Pic of H when he was exiled qietly in N Tehran.