Bombing North Korea - Choices and Decisions .. and maybe timely celebrations ?

Yesterday Lord Patel updated his series of comments about the chances of a pre-emptive strike against the alleged launch of the alleged missile in North Korea.

Debate in the MSM is very limited but the blogospshere is alive with comment , gossip and a great deal of misinformed and ill informed lunacy.

A good starting point is the Slate(owned by WAPO) review "Nuclear Summer" by Michael Weiss, which concentrates on comment on the WAPO piece by Carter and Perry.

For more comment on that article trawl the blogs using search engine of choice such as Technorati which shows 186 links to the WAPO piece with 20 of them today.

The level of discussion is generally well informed, international, thoughtful and rational. Lord Patel has felt for a long time ... since the very genesis of Iran, Iraq and North Korea as the Axis of Evil in the POTUS's State of the Union address January 29th 2002 that something was afoot.

Bush as ever has boxed himself (not without help) into a corner, Iraq falling apart, Afghanistan exploding in violence, poll numbers sagging, in some places quickly reaching freezing point. He wants some action. Just as the Falklands invasion saved Maggie (how exactly do you, with modern technology, overlook a mass invasion ?) a pop at DPRK could boost Bush ... some think.

There are 2 basic lines of action

1. Ignore the provocation and hope the alleged missile just doesn't work when they light the blue touch paper - carry on the pointless 50 year old diplomacy.

2. If the blue touch paper ignites and a missile (which is unlikely) soars over Japan again, it wll further compund the international perception of the US weakness. So this forces two subsidiary choices.

a) Use the SDI missiles from Greeley or wherever and shoot it down , which carries the massive risk that it won't work (which the military knows is virtually certain) - although that could probably be concealed and suitable lies about success be floated. Which may fool the public but not the watching Chinese and Russians.

b) Smash the launch pads surgically and pre-emptively.

There are many convinced that when Dubya called in all his ex Foreign Secretaries (incl Perry) in January to the White House to ostensibly discuss Iraq this is what he sought their advice on.

Doing nothing, is, for Bush a risky option. Of course smashing up their launch sites is also risky, the concept of Armageddon being launched by Kim il Chung is minute, the population want release from the tyranny of the State and the enjoyments of Western civilisation. (Which is the conclusion of the Lord Patel in house necromancers and crystal gazers)

Doing nothing will hasten the continuing decline of US influence (which many see as a good and inevitable consequence of their imperialism since WWII) - with it will follow a decline in economic importance and strength.

As the Presidential Prayer Team reminds us, it is the POTUS's 60th Birthday on July 6th, 2 days after a National Holiday .... what a present a victory over the evil hordes would be for the nation and it's leader.

Westhawk has shrewd and useful analysis