Short-sighted energy planning threatens bleak future

A History lesson.

The Institution of Civil Engineers is the pre-eminent engineering institution in the world. Established as a learned society in 1818, it has 80,000 members and provides a voice for civil engineering, continuing professional development and promoting best practice throughout the industry.

A report published 3 years ago by the ICE revealed that, within a generation, Britain will become completely reliant upon energy sources supplied via pipelines from politically unstable countries thousands of miles away. The ‘State of the Nation 2003’ report highlights a potential 80% shortfall in meeting the country’s energy demands from current supplies by 2020, and points to the possibly cataclysmic effects of becoming reliant upon unsecured, imported fuel supplies.

Tom Foulkes, ICE Director General, introduced the report The ‘State of the Nation 2003’ three years ago (01/07/2003) which the Press Release said, "Britain will become completely reliant upon energy sources supplied via pipelines from politically unstable countries thousands of miles away. The ‘State of the Nation 2003’ report highlights a potential 80% shortfall in meeting the country’s energy demands from current supplies by 2020, and points to the possibly cataclysmic effects of becoming reliant upon unsecured, imported fuel supplies."

Tom Foulkes said, inter alia , ( but it is best to read the whole thing) said:

“This country has been largely self sufficient in electricity generation for the past 100 years. We have been able to ride through a succession of energy crises, such as oil in 1973, coal in the early 1980s and the self-inflicted petrol crisis of 2000. All of these had the potential to inflict serious economic damage, but this was largely avoided by the fuel mix and diversity available at the time. This is about to change dramatically”. Currently our generation mix for electricity is approximately 32% coal, 23% nuclear, 38% gas, 4% oil with 3% others and renewables. Emission constraints mean that the UK’s coal-powered generating plants will close shortly after 2016 and only one nuclear power station will remain operational beyond 2020, due to the Government’s failure to invest in maintaining and upgrading Britain’s nuclear power programme. At present, renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and wave can only provide a fraction of the total requirement.

Under current Government planning, the outstanding balance will have to be replaced by gas-fired power stations, importing 90 per cent of their fuel, no later than 2020. Initially, some supplies will come from Norway, but as demand across Europe exhausts supplies during the 2020s, Britain will be forced to source gas supplies from West Africa, the Middle East and the former Soviet Republics. "

David Anderson, chair of ICE’s Energy Board, says: “The Government simply isn’t taking on board the generation mix that will be needed beyond 2020 if security of supply and meeting our environmental commitments are both to be achieved. A return to the blackouts that marked the ‘Winter of Discontent’ and the country grinding to a halt are very real possibilities in less than 20 years time.

“As well as increasing investment in the full range of available fuels, the country needs far greater capability to store long-term energy reserves to see us through any future crisis. Major gas users such as Germany, France and Italy all have a gas storage capability of over 20% of annual consumption, or over 70 days worth." etc., etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.,

28 June 2006, @ a No 10 meeting Magazine Editors, - Tony Blair said

" ....there is a simple stark fact that I would just like to put in front of people, which is we are going to go over the next 15 or 20 years to a situation where: one, the 20% that we get of our electricity from nuclear is going to decline to virtually zero; and two, where we are going to go from being 80 or 90% self-sufficient in oil and gas, to 80 or 90% importing it."

Yes that's right, it took 3 years for him to get it... which is better than any of the Energy Ministers who went through the revolving door at the DTI marked energy.

The headings provide pithy and quotable statements ..

The biggest waste at the moment is the waste of precious time.

Can we be sure the lights will stay on ?

Environmental and social aspects are being addressed but economic issues are being fudged.

POSTSCRIPT

One of the issues raised, (and raised in subsequent ICE reports) was the supply of engineering skills within the UK to meet the needs of new nuclear plants and power engineering. It is therefore if interest to note what has just been reported from Finland ..

The new Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor(Finlands 5th) at Pori in SW Finland, was due to commence operations in 2009, Teollisuuden Voima (TVO), the nonprofit electricity generator that commissioned the plant, has admitted this week that construction is one year behind schedule. The 1,630-megawatt reactor is the first third-generation European Pressurized Water Reactor - designed for greater safety and higher thermal efficiency.(see Pic from TVO)

Finland's Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK) says the builders , the French reva SA and German Siemens AG consortium ,have mismanaged the project because they selected subcontractors with no prior experience in nuclear power plant construction to implement the project.All in all more than 1100 subcontracts have been concluded so far half of them with Finnish companies.

"These subcontractors have not received sufficient guidance and supervision to ensure smooth progress of their work."

STUK identified several problems of project management leading to delays, though they stated that none undermines or compromise nuclear safety on the site.

TVO said, "Generation, review and approval of detailed design, manufacturing and construction solutions have taken more time than expected. The schedule has also been affected by the fact that such an intensive and demanding project has not been carried out for many years". or as they say "Asennustyöt reaktorilaitoksella ovat alkaneet. Suojarakennuksen hätäjäähdytysjärjestelmän putkistoasennukset ovat meneillään. Teräsvuorauksen sisällä raudoitustyöt jatkuvat. Reaktorirakennuksen isojen valutöiden aloitus on ajoitettu loppukesään. Turpiinilaitoksen puolella pilareiden ja seinien valut jatkuvat."

The total manpower on the construction site of Olkiluoto 3 is 730, with more than twenty different nationalities represented on the site. Finnish workers account for more than half of the manpower. The number of German and French employees is ca. 250 at present.

So before our Dear Leader starts planning on a "fleet of replacement reactors" perhaps we should start checking on the engineering, manpower resources available for the task. ( A letter from an engineering recruitment agency in the Daily Torygraph today takes up this point)

FCUKED official policy is that this task should be organised on the lines of the Manhattan project run by general Groves .. such is the importance to the economic future of the country , its economy and social well being.