Nielsen puts US TV channel owners in a sweat

The Wall Street Journal (subscription only) has an article today by Brian Steinberg about the decision by Nielsen Media Research to reveal on November 18th the formal ratings for commercial breaks - i.e how many folks watch the ads rather than the programs.

Savvy media buyers expect falls of 5-10% at break time, but expect higher falls with some channels.

The more viewers lost the harder the buyers will demand discounts ...and get them.

Some cable-channel executives are said to agree that some fillum channels ,are vulnerable to major declines in viewers because of the large number of ads they run in a break - allowing the viewer time to pee, make coffee, ... love.

Cable executives met with Nielsen executives on Thursday, ata meeting attended attended by about 40 people, including representatives of numerous TV channels. It was convened by NBC Universal and Mediaedge:cia, a WPP Group media-buying firm. A major problem is ratings are meant to cover only the minutes of commercial time sold to national advertisers and not the portion of commercial time available to local advertisers, which will give confusing results.

TV executives came away from the meeting more convinced than ever that the ratings need to be evaluated (i.e we have been caught with our pants down, for god's sake give us time) before they can be used in any ad-sales negotiations.

Commercial prices have long been based on ratings for a particular program, not on ratings for ad breaks or the ads contained within them. Advertisers want to know about the ratings performance of individual commercials, amid heightened concerns about the effects digital-video recorders / TIVO etc., are having on viewing habits.

One thing is certain, and the effect is clear with ITV in the UK, and the press worldwide, the media are going to have to look for more and more diverse revenue channels. The days when a TV comercial license was a license to print money is over.