Iraq, the natives are getting restless

Images that Lord Patel has had access to from the Israeli EROS B of Baghdad, suggest that concentrations of "Coalition" troops and defence for the Green Zone have recently reached a peak. (More helicopters needed to prevent another Saigon is prime mover for Embassy planners of all nations)

No doubt the Israeli analysts are chafing at the bit, as the Ofeq 5 images they rely on are being affected by cloud cover which the TechSAR satellite ( with synthetic aperture radar (SAR)) when launched (imminenent ?) will provide a new generation and new level of precision and accuracy under all conditions.

EROS B is heliosynchronous so is always able to collect images in full sunshine but fails to reveal nocturnal military activity.

There is increased tension which became apparent when Brig Gen Qassim Mussawi, the Iraqi prime minister's military spokesman, denied that there was a danger of a military takeover. This coincided (curiously enough) with a total daylight curfew that lasted for 36 hours.

Mr Adnan al-Dulaimi, the leader of the main Sunni political bloc who is suspected of fomenting trouble is under suspicion. The US claim they foiled a plot for a suicide attack on the Green Zone.

US squads descended on Adnan al-Dulaimi's house and compound and arrested a gurad they said had al-Quaeda links whom they accused of planning car bomb attacks.

Mr al-Dulaimi said he expected the man to be released.

Gossip (which cannot possibly be relied upon) from afar, points a finger at ex - General al – Khazraji's family and his old army pals, Wafiq Al-Samarrai the ex ( and feared) Head of Military Intelligence under Saddam and Najib Al-Salhi the hammer of the Sh’ites …

Meanwhile way down South, in Basra the Governor Mohammed al-Waeli has just narrowly survived an ambush on his motorcade in which three bodyguards were wounded.

"Gunmen in police uniform and others in civilian clothes tried to assassinate me," he said. "I know who they are and am going to go after them legally. They are a group of officers in the major crimes department."

Apparently Mr Waeli has some historic dispute with the Basra police chief which resulted in the Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki demanding that a State of Emergency be declared.

The complicated truth is that the UK began to lose political control of Basra when SCIRI lost control of the Basra Provincial Council to the “Islamic Virtue Party” (Fadhila) and it's coalition with other factions in early 2005.

Mr Al-Waeli, and Fadhila are also supported by the populist Ayatollah Mohammed al-Yacoubi. Yacoubi and Moqtada al-Sadr, (whose Mahdi Army militiamen captured the 2 "SAS" soldiers) both vied to take over the leadership after a-Sadrs father was assassinated in 1999, but have formed a sort of (un)holy alliance.

al-Yacoubi has also been very outspoken about US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, and his apparent support of the Sunni.

Of course, Basra is in the middle of the oil rich south, and the port from where it flows out and money flows in and "regional autonomy" is in the air. The row simmers away because Maliki in forming his Government appointed the oil ministry to Sistani-aligned Hussein al-Shahristani who is attempting to develop national policies.

These moves have been factored in by other players, Kellogg, Brown Root (Halliburton oil support systems company) moved the centre of operations to Basra (and nearer Kuwait)last year.

This is what the Special Inspector General's (SIGIR 06-038) report for Iraq reconstruction dated 27th September 2006 said on Page 5.

"....we estimate that January 2004 to March 2006, ....Iraq lost a potential US$16 Bn in revenue from oil exports....in addition Iraq ids paying billions of dollars to import refined petroleum products..."

It is no wonder that the authorities in Basra fret whilst they see the potential riches slip away... this is compounded by the machinations of big oil. Hussain al-Shahristani said in August that the final competition for developing Iraq's oil fields will be wide open . A key provision in the new law is a commitment to using production sharing agreements (PSAs), which will lock the government into a long-term commitment (up to 50 years) to sharing oil revenues, and restrict its right to introduce any new laws that might affect the companies' profitability.

PSAs are specifically constructed to favor private (and non-Iraqi) companies at the expense of exporting governments, which is why none of the top oil producing countries in the Middle East use them.

There said to be 80 known oil fields of which only 20 have been developed, if Iraq's government commits to signing the PSAs, it could cost the country up to nearly $200 billion in lost revenues.
Meanwhile the IMF is demanding that the Iraqi parliament adopt the new oil law by the end of the year as part of "conditionalities" imposed under the new debt relief agreement. The cancellation of 80% Debt to the Paris club (in 2004) built up by Saddam, came with obligations which will now steadily bite.

It is clear that the secondment of their senior staff to the CPA Philip Carroll (Shell U.S., Fluor), Rob McKee (ConocoPhillips and Halliburton) and Norm Szydlowski (ChevronTexaco) will soon start paying off...unless the natives get restless.

Which is why all eyes are glued on those images from 524 kilometres up in space, of the Green Zone.

Lo! thy dread empire Chaos is restor'd,
Light dies before thy uncreating word;
Thy hand, great Anarch, lets the curtain fall,
And universal darkness buries all."
Alexander Pope, The Dunciad, Book iv, Line 649