Pervez purveys an uncomrfortable Truth

You'll be brought down to your knees if Pakistan doesn't co-operate with you. That is all that I would like to say. Pakistan is the main ally. If we were not with you, you won't manage anything.
Pervez Musharraf

Whichever way you cut it, Military Dictator Pervez Musharraf is a key to the success of the US/EU/NATO/Coalition in Central Asia.

He is also, along with his fellow officers, nuclear scientists, military secret services allied in a variety of loose associations with various Islamic / Taliban / al Quaeda forces. He also has to juggle with historic, complex, tribal fealties on Pakistani northern regions and borders with Afghanistan.

Increasingly, as the Bush administration is increasingly aware, the survival of this cocky little man, with his curiously dyed hair, who personally packs a Glock sidearm wherever he goes (even the White House) , is critical to their success in Afghanistan - and by association with their presence elsewhere in the Muslim world.

Musharraf, who is daily reminded of the lethal nature of his opposition, domestic and regional is in retreat.

Lord Patel wrote recently about the deal that Musharraff cut with the lords and masters of Waziristan and the consequences of the murder of the aged Baluchistan leader on August 26 Nawab Akbar Bugti.

Waziristan ( population approx 1 Mn.) a stopping off station for mujahadeen on their way to Kabul is the burial ground of 3,000 Pakistani troops. Under pressure from the Army, Pakistan has ceded the tribal areas of Waziristan to what is effectively pro-Taliban local rule. Weapons will be returned, military outposts will be abandoned, and substantial compensation (bribe) will be paid. A reversion to the policy of the Raj in the region.

Whilst the exact details of any deal made with Mullah Oman remain unknown, it is clear that some form of ceasefire has been agreed and a more leisurely approach to hunting down the Taliban / al Quaeda in Pakistan been adopted. So far the US/NATO agreement not to go in "hot" pursuit when suspect guerillas crossing the border into Pakistan holds, but is the cause of much angst in Washington and the focus of much of President's Karzai's public criticism of Pakistan last week.

Against these formal agreements, alliances and "understandings" Pakistan has been gradually releasing up to 2,500 Taliban and al Qaeda militants from Pakistani jails - allegedly on the basis that they leave Pakistan.

These changes have been forced on Musharaff, who is increasingly in survival gear - he hopes that this will provide him with an umbrella of peace and safety. Fundamental forces are at work however ..

1. The influence of the Musharraf's Military Secret Police ISI have less control as the forces in Afghanistan , Patahn irregulars, Taliban , al Quaeda now have a lucrative and massive source of financing in the burgeoning opium trade.

2. NATO, it's political leaders, it's military top brass, it's forces , supposedly the leader in the counter-insurgency war in Afghanistan - quite distinct from the USSR before it will not mount, and are not prepared to mount a serious effort......

The Nato mission in Afghanistan was "absolutely critical for global security" and was backed by a UN resolution, Tony Blair said today ,when meeting Finnish Prime Minister, Matti Vanhanen, curently chairman of the EU, as NATO's ISAF took charge of the country's eastern provinces to add to their responsibilies in the rest of the country.

In a discussion on British Forces TV and Radio today Blair defended the role of the UK forces and NATO, "What our troops are doing in Afghanistan is of fundamental importance not just to the security of our country but [to] global security" BBC

He added, "

If we let Afghanistan be used again as a training ground for the export of terrorism, it turns up on our streets - it harms British citizens."

Responding to widespread press comment about poorly equiped troops he said,

"Let me just make one thing clear: if the commanders on the ground want more equipment, armoured vehicles for example, more helicopters, that will be provided".

He also somewhat mysteriously referred to a "package" the government was expected to announce "in the next few weeks" for troops fighting abroad - which has been widely "guessed" (with assistance from spin doctors ?) to mean a cash bonus.

The graph above (from the BBC) highlights the exiguous NATO effort in the country compared with the US - leading many to wonder how long the Alliance can survive. re,eber the Societs used (frutilessly) 150,000 ground troops and a massive air attack before deciding to leave.

3. It is evident that the Taliban and al Qaeda are successfully importing / utilising methods / strategy / tactics and weapons of insurgency developed in Iraq to central Asia. Such tactics and organizational approaches will work better in fertile and fissiparous Islamic Pakistan, due to its level of development, societal complexity and urbanization, than in Afghanistan.
Attempts on Musharaff will continue, on the apparatus of the state but increasingly we will see the process of state fragmentation being stepped up. For example on 24th of September 2006, when a disruption of power ( "a major technical fault in 500kW transmission line from Tarbela dam (Pic aerial view) led to the nationwide blackout" from the Tarbela dam on the Indus shut down electricity across 75% of Pakistan.

In a statement familiar to students of official lying, cloaking either incompetence or inconvenient truths, Shafqat Jalil, a spokesman for the state-run Water and Power Development Authority said, "There is no chance of sabotage because had it been so, it would have been reported to us by now".

The power failure spread in a matter of minutes, and rumors of a government change and dissolution of assemblies were rife and even resulted in Minister for Water and Power Liaquat Ali Jatoi, in Dubai on his way to Sri Lanka for an official visit,rushed back to Islamabad to review the situation.

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz Sunday called for an enquiry and it is now said that the outage was "due to power surge during the routine maintenance of 500 Kv transmission line from Ghazi Barotha to Rewat and Ghatti." Yes.

Of course , Parvez has written his memoirs and no doubt has a healthy balance in several bank accounts scattered across the world, and the odd bolthole - hoping to evade the nemesis which attends previously the more democratic holders of his position - including the brother of Lord Patel's doctor.

Whether he stays or goes, does not remove the problem facing the US both in it's War on Terror - in which Parvez was rather blunt in pointing out the bleeding obvious and in maintaining their world hegemony and the cohesion of the Western alliance where Anti-Americanism is taking a vicious hold.

The pic at the head of this posting is from Ap and bears this interesting explanation.

A Pakistani bomb disposal expert 2R holds a rocket found in front of the Presidency in Islamabad, October 05. Pakistani authorities have found two rockets aimed at the headquarters of the country's elite intelligence agency, two days after rockets were defused near President Pervez Musharraf's official residence.(AFP JOURNAL INTERNET)