BBBBBRRRRrrrrrrrrrr!! Winter drawers on ...

Those of us considering the energy (in)security of the UK will be anxiously looking at the supply/demand ratios in the coming months - with a close eye on the weather ..

Ian Brown provides the Netweather forecast and says that after the UK's warmest ever May to October he believes that the coming winter will be close to or below the long term average temperature .

The principal factors to consider for the winter forecast in my view are :

* ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation)
* NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)
* AO (Arctic Oscillation)
* SSTAs (Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies)
* Solar Activity

The other factors that influence my thoughts (he says) are recent trends both in terms of general synoptic patterns and of course the overall general warming.

The key statistics and how I expect the synoptics to develop over the winter months are :

* Precipitation slightly below normal
* Temperatures slightly below normal. I would expect the overall CET to be around 3.5C making it the coldest winter since 1995/6
* The mildest and wettest conditions to be in the second half of December and early January.
* The possibility that February will be the coldest since 1991

You can read more about his explanation here.

Lord Patel has just received his handy £200 (tax free) heating bonus from all the UK taxpayers - many thanks. Looks as though it will be necessary.

PS Netweather have just started on their "Weather for Christmas" report here
....." it's a pretty positive one - a white Christmas looks a reasonable possibility this year." - get down the bookies !

Or ...

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* The most fully featured UK and Europe 15 minute radar available on the net - including weather type detection to show whether rain, sleet or snow s falling.
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* Access to the CFS - 9 month seasonal charts
* 16 day in depth forecasts - including a standalone snow risk forecast
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