Putin wins Byelorussian / European oil war

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko has had a friendly telephone chat with President Putin and appear to have resolved the 3 day freeze on the 1.5 Mn barrels a day of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline. (Reuters) It appears that some understanding has been reached about a disputed 80,000 barrels of oil which the Russians claim was stolen from their onward European customers and Belarus said was taken as payment for the "transit tax" they had imposed unilaterally.(see map of Russian/European oil pipelines)

Reuters reported comments from Yaroslav Lissovolik from Deutsche UFG (part of Deutsche Bank) who said "The disruption in oil supplies has yet again undermined Russia's efforts to establish itself as a reliable source of supplies to Europe." (See map of German oil sources)

"The cut in oil supplies from Russia is unacceptable...This raises a problem, a real problem of credibility. We would like to guarantee that this does not happen in the future," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said.(more comments from Chancellor Angela Merkel and Barroso here)

Claude Mandil, chief of the International Energy Agency (IEA) hat advises industrialised nations, said the disruption had shaken confidence in Russia as affected countries in Europe had to tap their strategic reserves and added that "Oil is not scarce, it can be imported from many places on the international market."

André Ballin has an interesting insight into Semyon Vainshtok, the clever and self-confident head of the pipeline group Transneft who he describes as "Russia's Pipeline Czar is Putin's 'Soldier' in Spiegel online.

"I'm a soldier, the president is commander-in-chief," said Vainshtok, who apparently is always anxious to stress his loyalty to Putin. "Orders aren't questioned."

In the conflict with Minsk, too, the commander-in-chief has spoken. Again he has won when using Russian energy as a weapon.