"“We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.” "

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao 12th March 2009

""We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."

Timothy Geithner US Secretary of the Treasury, previously President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.1/3/2009

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Peak Oil/Credit Crunch/Housing Bubble Burst/Dollar Dives/ Fed panics - a simple explanation - with graphs and charts

There is a fascinating (and excellent article) posted on the Oil Drum on August 20th by Stuart Sandiford. US Peak Oil Adaptation: Prognosis in a Credit Crunch.

A unique and thoughtful analysis in which he combines current global and especially North American oil production and consumption and examines the possibility that the emerging current financial/credit crisis could cause a near-term collapse in demand for energy, energy prices, and investment in energy infrastructure.

Chart prepared by Stuart Sandiford showing Average daily production of crude oil from 2 industry sources of data - Oil and Gas Journal (red), and crude plus condensate from te US Energy Information Administration (EIA) (teal) - which produces the official Official Energy Statistics from the US Government. These are presented with with 13 month centered moving averages of each line, recursed once. Graph is not zero scaled to better show changes, click to enlarge. Source: Oil and Gas Journal, and EIA International Petroleum Monthly Table 1.1d. (Now do you think Peak Oil is a load of bollocks?)

For the US he shows that Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) has consistently grown each year until late 2005, when VMT flattened out and began to decline slightly which is broadly coincident with the plateauing of global oil supply. .... He suggested in 2005 that this drop in VMT growth would presage a drop in economic growth, and refined this at the start of 2006 to a prediction that the US economy would enter recession in 2007 (a prediction which was also based upon the widely forecast bursting of the housing market bubble - which he shared). He writes ..."I may have gotten the timing at bit wrong, but basically that still looks close, and we may get there by the end of 2007."

This is a highly original and stimulating paper which requires careful study and consideration .. go there NOW.

Meanwhile ...

US light, sweet crude settled $1.65 lower at $69.47 while Brent fell $1.16 to $68.69. The DOW ended down 30 at 13090. Realty Trac report a 93% jump in filings for repossessions on the same month a year ago in the US , and a 9% rise on June's figure.

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