Another Balkan tragedy in the making

The Daily Telegraph report on the Serbian Presidential elections ;

Serbs are flocking to polling stations to vote in a knife-edge presidential election that has effectively become a referendum on whether the country should choose the European Union or Russia as its closest ally.

Which is total bollocks. resident Boris Tadic, and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica have thrown in their lot with the Russians with the South Stream agreement and vice versa.

Tomislav Nikolic, the leader of the nationalist Serbian Radical Party, may want much closer links with Moscow. Moscow is not anxious to have such a maverick, militaristic war monger as an ally.

Neither do the vast bulk of Serbians, who whatever their grievances are fed up with war and see no benefits with alliance with the West, EU, NATO who spent 79 days bombing the shit out of them from 20,000 feet.

Tadic will win. (UPDATE Monday He did by 51%) Which is what both Russia and EU / NATO / USUK want. The result will be very close and the SRS will hit the streets complaining of vote rigging. theer will be claim and counterclaim.

If after this the Western allies and the EU allow the Kosovan Albanians to declare independence and the EU / NATO / USUK send in troops to hold the ring, we will find another continuing bitter, bloody struggle which will soak up men , material and treasure in which Srpska radikalna stranka, (SRS), Српска радикална странка will foment ethnic conflict which will undoubtedly spread. We may even catch fleeting glimpses of Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic again as they rally their bloodthirsty soldiery, funded from god knows where.

To send in their troops EU / NATO / USUK must obtain a UN Security Council resolution - although they didn't bother when they held Milosevic at Rambouillet and failed to force him to sign his death warrant.

Russia (and it's placemen in NY) have however played their energy cards very shrewdly and there is little chance of an early or satisfactory resolution. Ditto Iran.

UPDATE Monday : See der Spiegel article "Kostunica is in coalition with Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) yet he refused to back Tadic in the presidential election, and he has insisted that if Kosovo declares independence, and this is recognized by the EU, then Belgrade should abandon its bid for EU membership."...".some analysts predicting that a snap election will be called as soon as Kosovo declares independence."