FCUKED - an emerging problem

The BBC reports that energy trader Inenco says the UK could face power blackouts "within weeks" if a sudden cold snap or unplanned power outage occurs. (Read "The Generation Gap" pdf)

Here at Forthcoming UK Energy Deficit (FCUKED) we have been pursuing this line persistently and consistently since 1999.

Discussed on the Staurday Today programme these fears have been focussed this week since the National Grid published their latest forecast of power supply and demand for the coming winter. Ideally these are based on a "cushion" of capacity but they reveal that cusion will drop to less than 800MW in November.

BBC Online report that David Hunter, of energy consultants McKinnon and Clarke, said there was "real concern" that there could "a lack of enough power available for short periods".

After the National grid report was published the price of electricity rose above £121/MWh, (British Energy sell at approx £45 MWh to the National Grid on fixed contracts) and prices for November delivery rose 7% in a matter of hours.

Removing his head from ahole in the sand a National Grid spokesman (unnamed) said to the BBC "It is nonsense to suggest that the UK is at high risk of blackouts." ... forgetting that faced with the EU directive to pahse out coal fired plant operators have been running plants at maximum output on totally amortised plant - with resultant likelihood of running problems ... we also have nuclear fleet (whover owns them) with persistent problems of sustainability.

We suggest you have a supply of candles, wood, coal, generator depending upon your needs and circumstances.

We mustn't upset the servants or the children

Allan Asher, chief executive of consumer watchdog Energywatch, told the BBC there were several periods this winter when "it's going to be very tight".

He blamed an "appalling lack of future planning and cavalier regulation", but said: "I just don't think it's wise to alarm people about this.

"Both at a regulatory and planning level a huge amount needs to be done, but that shouldn't be done with dire threats which overstate the concern now."

"What's definitely true is that margins are tighter than they've been for a long time and not very much has to go wrong to turn that towards brownouts or blackouts."

Fortunately we are facing such a massive downturn in the UK economy that electricity demand will fall substantially - maybe that was the plan all along.