"“We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.” "

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao 12th March 2009

""We have a financial system that is run by private shareholders, managed by private institutions, and we'd like to do our best to preserve that system."

Timothy Geithner US Secretary of the Treasury, previously President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.1/3/2009

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Climate change - another perspective on the historical temperature record

Climate is the continuation of the oceans by other means
Arnd Bernaerts 1992 ***

Watts up with that blog has a first rate analysis by Bill Illis - Adjusting Temperatures for the ENSO and the AMO which he describes ....

" People have noted for a long time that the effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) should be accounted for and adjusted for in analyzing temperature trends. The same point has been raised for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ( not to be confused with not be confused with the North Atlantic Oscillation.) (AMO). Until now, there has not been a robust method of doing so.

This post will outline a simple least squares regression solution to adjusting monthly temperatures for the impact of the ENSO and AMO There is no smoothing of the data, no plugging of the data; this is a simple mathematical calculation."
Basically, a highly successful attempt to account for global temperature records after adjusting for the ocean oscillations ENSO and AMO. His statisticalanalysis which is lengthy and detailed, requires considerable efffort and knowledge to follow, but it clearly shows that after adjusting for the temperature variation caused by ocean oscillations, there is very little "climate change" signature left.

Al Fin who claims to float between North America and Afghanistan provides a perfect, clear and simple explanation of Illis's paper / essay.

The sun drives the ocean oscillations. Ocean oscillations plus water vapour/cloud effects then drive Earth's climate. CO2 has only a marginal effect. The Earth is currently undergoing a cooling phase.

A David L Hagen comments "Can the effects of the Urban Heat Island effect be quantitatively separated from CO2 forcing on temperature trends?" ... which highlights, if nothing else the paucity (or even non-existence) of study / research into another 20th century phenomenom, a further direct effect of burning fossil fuels which seems to have eluded the crazed IPCC bunch of scientists with a political agenda and hungry for research grants.

Capt. Dr. Arnd Bernaerts Postfach 730462 22124 Hamburg, Germany Phone: +49-40-67580714 E-Mail: arnd1939@yahoo.com

A trained seaman and a master mariner, he was a shipmaster before he became
a lawyer and a doctor of law in the 1970s, with a law office in Hamburg, and an international consultant since the 1980s. see here

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