UK Manufacturing output slumps 4.9% year on year - Trade gap widens in October - MITC fraud still an unknown quantity

The seasonally adjusted volume index for the output of the production industries fell by an astonishing and unprecedented 1.8 % cent compared with the previous three months. (Base 2003 =100) Output has fallen for 8 straight months even though the pound has continually weakened and has fallen 4.9% year-on-year .

Between September and October output of UK manufacturing industries fell by 1.4 %. There were widespread falls in manufacturing the most significant decreases in output were 3.6 % in the paper,printing and publishing industries, 4.2 % in the basic metals and metal products industries and 2.8 % in the transport equipment industries - last week figures for new car sales in November were 37% down on a year ago.

The chemicals and man-made fibres industries grew by 1.6% .

Mining and quarrying output decreased by 0.7 % and output of the electricity, gas and water supply industries decreased by 0.5 % compared with the previous three months.

In the last 3 months , output of the consumer durable goods industries fell by 3.6 % compared with the previous three months and was 8.1 % lower than the same period a year ago.




In the last 3 months, output of the capital goods industries fell by 2.7 % compared with the previous three months and was 4.4 % lower than the same period a year ago.


Following this news the pound fell against the euro and the dollar dropping by over 1% to US $1.4742. The euro rose to 87.25p, near its recent record high of 87.38p.


The goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened slightly to £7.8bn in October, (£7.4 billion in September) mainly due to a drop in oil exports because of North Sea production problems. The balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £0.4 billion, compared with a surplus of less than £0.1 billion in September.

In October, total exports of goods fell by 3.5% to £21.2 billion and total imports of goods fell by 1% to £28.9 billion.

The ONS add this cautionary note without further explanation - Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC (carousel) fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of
caution. (ie : we haven't a **** clue what the level of fraud is, where it happens and .. well ... er.. that's it)

The UK's surplus on trade in services was £3.9 billion, unchanged from September and in the last 3 months , the surplus on trade in services was £11.7 billion, compared with £10.9 billion in the previous three months. (Exports £40.3 Bn. - Imports £28.6 Bn. )