The Conservative's Shadow Security Minister Dame Lady Jane Baroness Neville Jones ("Out Pauline") has been missing in the House - she was in sunny Jakarta delivering an excellent speech in the swanky Ritz Hotel , to the World Islamic Economic Forum,1,557 people, including 1,395 delegates, 85 speakers and 70 heads of state from 38 countries were present. The theme was "Food and Energy Security and Stemming the Tide of Global Financial Crisis"
Her JIC analysis of the effects of the current banking / financial / insurance / comodity crisis can be found at Conservative Home. eg and is well worth reading. Text
We could see a reversal of progress on international poverty: “According to the World Bank, from 1981 to 2001, the number of people living on less than $1 a day went down from 1.5 billion to 1 billion. Improvements in global literacy went hand-in-hand with this. This favourable trend could now go into reverse. Just one indicator of what is at stake.”
Private capital flows to emerging economies are set to collapse: “In 2007, net private capital flows to emerging economies were $898 billion… The Institute of International Finance estimates that net private capital flows to emerging and developing countries will be just $165 billion in 2009 – a decline of 82 per cent from 2007.”
Read this along with The Indepedent story yesterday 'Run on UK' sees foreign investors pull $1 trillion out of the City
A silent $1 trillion "Run on Britain" by foreign investors was revealed yesterday in the latest statistical releases from the Bank of England. The external liabilities of banks operating in the UK – that is monies held in the UK on behalf of foreign investors – fell by $1 trillion (£700bn) between the spring and the end of 2008, representing a huge loss of funds and of confidence in the City of London.
Some more headings .
Some $597.5bn was lost to the banks in the last quarter of last year alone, after a modest positive inflow in the summer, but a massive $682.5bn haemorrhaged in the second quarter of 2008 – a record. About 15 per cent of the monies held by foreigners in the UK were withdrawn over the period, leaving about $6 trillion. This is by far the largest withdrawal of foreign funds from the UK in recent decades – about 10 times what might flow out during a "normal" quarter.
The early stages of the world recession have already caused low level political instability:
One third of the world’s nations may struggle to cope with the economic challenge:
Under-pressure governments may become repressive and protectionist:
Extremists and terrorists may exploit the economic downturn:
The importance of increasing food supply in the years ahead: Food prices are likely to be driven up by autarky.” In response PNJ suggests reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, a greater proportion of aid spending to be devoted to food security and, possibly, “a more internationally organized system of storage for certain basic food stuffs.”
In the speech Dame Lady Jane warns against cartelisation of the energy market and against protectionism. She says that the G20 may now be a more appropriately diverse group of nations to manage the scale of international economic challenges we face:
“My protected market is your closed factory and angry workforce… Maintaining the open system – requires possibly unpopular decisions about keeping markets open and thus putting some local jobs at risk and is a much bigger immediate challenge to political leaderships."