DPRK - Fireworks ......The Charade continues.

There has been much organised claptrap about the DPRK firing their second multi stage unguided rocket (so called Taepodong) vaguely East of and over Japan.

Lord Patel has visited North Korea, he has contacts with severalacademic,diplomatic and commercial sources with experinece and personal knowledge.

It is a complete fictrion that DPRK has any nuclear weapons technology of any significance. They don't have the skills, the industrial base, the financial resource or the knowledge.

The alleged rockets to deliver these alleged weapons are of WWII technology and aren't even eqivalent to the Jupiter and Saturn rockets of the 60's that the US used to set fire to their launch pads in the 60's.

1. Rockets

The Taepodong 2 missile ( name invented by outside observers) has 2 stages.The primary stage is probably a liquid liquid propellant (TM-185 fuel and AK-27I oxidizer) driven engine and the second stage likely utilises the so called Nodong short-range missile (The Nodong missile was test fired once in May 1993).

Of the 2 missiles fired so far (The first was in July 2006) the splashdown phase gives a rnge of some 1,400 Km - payload capcity is said to be (and this is highly unlikely) ,up to 700–1,000 kg at short range. Some fanciful reports says this makes it suitable for conventional weapons payloads, NBC payloads as well as Earth orbit satellite delivery. Fancifully US news reports claim these missiles have " a range of more than 6,700 kilometers, putting it within striking distance of Alaska, Hawaii and most of East Asia.This nonsense is repated by BBC Online

There is no evidence whatever of an ability to seperate a payload , provide any sort of guidance or control in flight with any accuracy.

An earlier and more primitve single stage Taepodong-1 was test fired in August 1998, firing a missile over northern Japan.

2. Weapons

On October 6th 2006 an explosion occurred deep witin a mountain at Musadan-ri in Hwadae-kun, near the city of Kilchu, in North Hamgyŏng province on the northeast coast.

Most reports from informed sources of the seismic event suggess a yield of some 1 Kiloton. An effect acheivable with easily obtainable and relatively inexpensive explosives - eg ammonium nitrate and diesel, primed with Semtex or such.

The only reports of radioactive residue were ina "preliminary report" (never followed up from the office of Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte.

U.S. intelligence officials estimate that the explosion was less than a kiloton, according to the statement.

What is in it for DPRK ?

You must understand these guys are isolated crazies, certifiable at least. The have some resident and indigenous software skills and have been duped by enldess emigres from the Soviet states selling them unuseable ex Soviet technology.

It is highly likely that they have some launch staff recruited from Kazaksthan rocket ranges and maybe some help (but very unlikley) from the Pakistan nuclear circus (now you se it, now you don't)

What is in it for US

The military and civil telecomms networks in DPRK are totally compromised (and have been for years) - something that the UK have helped with.

They want to maintain their military role in the region and must have an enemy to protect Japan and South Korea from to justify their inceasingly unpopular presence in the area.

What is in it for China ?

The last thing China wants is a unified peninsula on their doorstep. They supply 80% of food and fuel to maintain their grip on the North. In cahoots with Russia they manage to keep the UN tied down to what is effectively inaction.

The alleged threat to the West of nuclear wepons from DPRK is a wet dream of souls like John Bolton ......

Now Pakistan ..... Israel ....