Boeing 787 Dreamliner faces fourth (and final ?) delivery date, extended production dates, financing problems

The Wall Street Journal report today that Boeing (currently they are "reviewing schedules" ) will delay first deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner by at least six months. The current schedule is for initial deliveries to commence Q3 2009 but it faces many niggling production problems not least of which is the weight but also man and time absorbing software glitches and shoddy work from their many overseas and US based suppliers.

Boeing officials are expected to announce later this month that first deliveries may not occur until summer 2010, more than two years after the jet was originally scheduled to enter service.

Another delay would mark the fourth time that Boeing would have to tell the customers holding orders for almost 900 of the planes that it will be late. Each time, Boeing officials have made nice noises and assured customers and investors that the new schedule would be reliable, only to be subsequently surprised by new problems.

Dreamliner delays have also impacted the update to the 747 jumbo jet and serious problems of faulty fasteners on the 737 production line have caused huge problems, delays and lost production time.

In a recent interview, Virgin Atlantic Airways Chief Executive Steve Ridgeway voiced customers' growing frustration. "We're pretty fed up," he said. "We've got no clarity from Boeing."

Virgin was originally due to receive its first Dreamliner in 2011, but "we don't know how long the delay is now," Mr. Ridgeway said. He referred to the Dreamliner as "the world's rarest airplane."
There is a serious risk for Boeing that a further delay will also seriously upset customer airlines, leading to deferrals of orders or outright cancellations. The airlines most affected are those at the front of the line for 787 deliveries, Japan's All Nippon Airways , their rival Japan Airlines Corp and U.S. airlines Northwest, now part of Delta Air Lines Inc, and Continental Airlines Inc.

Expect a company jet to visit Washington real soon now and Boeing executives to demand plead for Federal funds as the recession hits air travel and the capacity of their customers to fund new planes .

Meanwhile here is a picture Toni Fabuloso took on board Lord Patel's personal Airbus 380 on our way to the opening of the Atlantis Hotel in Dubai ...

Jim Cramers stock picks Boeing (BA): "Boeing is the most worrisome stock in the Dow right now. I think they have nothing cooking over there, I say sell, sell, sell."

Boeing will cut outsourcing on 787 and on future projects - More Airbus 380's delivered

Boeing vice president for engineering Mike Denton has confirmed the company will scale back outsourced engineering on the next 787 variant (787 - 9) and reduce participation by outside partners on all future commercial aircraft programmes.

His remarks were aimed at the Boeing members of the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA), a union now entering the final month of negotiations on a new labour contract.

They also indicate how big a mistake the 787's once-heralded production system relying on six major partners in three countries to make vast financial, engineering and production contributions to the Dreamliner.

Boeing mistakenly judged that its partners were capable of participating beyond build-to-print work, and then compounded that error by failing to track their progress he says. "Our engineers and production workers are basically correcting the problems that should have never come to us in the first place -- problems that are the result of the partners really not being done."

In a major volte face he went on in a company podcast today ... "We will probably do more of the design and even some of the major production for the next new airplanes ourselves as opposed to having it all out with the partners."

"We see that as building on lessons of the 787, taking advantage of the parts that were really good, but doing some course corrections so that we can not relive some of the harder lessons that we have experienced recently."

SPEEA, however, appears still far part with Boeing management on the issues. A mid-afternoon electroic message by Goforth on 30 October read: "SPEEA ends today's meeting early citing Boeing intransigence."

When will Dreamliner fly ? ScuttleBut says late '09 and if it works, enter service late 2010.

Airbus deliveries continue

Quantas have started using their first Airbus 380 on the Melbourne-Los Angeles services and from 24th October will operate the aircraft on some of its Sydney-Los Angeles services and from January will use it for some of its services to London via Singapore - wher it will compete with Singapore Airlines.

Emirates have taken delivery of their 2nd Airbus 380 for use on its Dubai-New York route which started operating on Wednesday 27 th October providing a daily service .

Two more 380's are scheduled for delivery to Emirates by the end of 2008.

Air Wars hots up as Emirates launches Airbus 380 NY / JFK - Dubai route

Emirates start their Dubai - New York JFK round trip 3 times weekly flights in 2 weeks, of their spanking brand new Airbus 380's and join Singapore Airlines, now perating twice daily London/Singapore in operating these massive air cruisers. (Singapore are offering flights from Singapore to the Olympics from 2-8th August)

In a media blitz they will be operating a series of 2 hour round trip “familiarisation” flights out of San Francisco and Los Angeles for invited guests - the hot ticket in town - Lord Patel has had to demur as he will be busy watching TV that day.

The San Francisco familiarisation flight is scheduled for August 4, with the Los Angeles event set for the following day. The guests will be encouraged to tour the aircraft and take a close look at its three-class configuration - 14 first-class suites, 76 business seats and 399 economy – and a likely array of amenities that has the industry on tenterhooks.

Details released so far include showers in first-class and an all-premium upper deck but the the wraps are firmly on the aircraft being prepared in Hamburg.

Emirates will receive a total of five A380s in its current financial year, all in three-class, 489-seat ultra-long-haul configuration. After New York, these aircraft will operate on Emirates’ routes from Dubai to London Heathrow and Sydney-Auckland. The airline also plans to take delivery of numbers of A380s with three-class/517-seat and two-class/604-seat layouts.

Meanwhile gossip continues that George Bush (President United States) will bow out having ordered at least one Airbus 380 for Air Force One to repace the ageing White House 747 fleet.

Boeings Dreamliner is going to be very much on the back foot as the space and extra facilities cannot be offered - and the fuel cost savings have no or litle impact on ticket prices - especially to a market led by people who don't even look at the ticket price.

Boeing 787 plans for Dash 3 and Dash 10 variants overweight and delayed and Japanese (back at Changi) look at Airbus 350XWB at Singapore Airshow

Boeing initialy planned to produce 3 versions of the Dreamliner the 787-8(60 metres wspan 15,200) and a stretched 787-9 (63 metres wspan 15,750Km) (currently a total of 824 orders ) and the 787-3 (59 metres wspan 5,650Km) ere wingspan range which is a shorthaul version due for service in 2010 and for which Japan Airlines Corp. and All Nippon Airways Co. Ltd. have ordered 43 planes.

Now Boeing Co. has suspended some work on the 787-3 and some employees have been shifted to other tasks, "including work on improving the 787-8 and meeting nearer-term schedule requirements, on the twice-delayed 787 Dreamliner

Lori Gunter says Boeing but remains "absolutely committed" to producing the 787-3 model for the Japanese airlines that have ordered them and said Boeing is focused now on getting the first 787-8 to fly, and said it's too early to talk about the very stretched 787-10 being stalled.
Randy Tinseth, Boeing's chief marketing officer, told Bloomberg News on Monday "The 787-3 today is still part of our plan for the program and still being offered." and “We have a commitment to ANA and JAL to build that airplane.”

The Flightblogger.com who is reporting to Lord Patel from the Singapore Airshow said that the scuttlebutt was that Boeing was considering suspending the short-haul version in a move that might be a precursor to cancelling it.

The Seattle Times spoke to Stephen Udvar-Hazy who said the short-range variant of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner, the 787-3, is too heavy to make sense in any market outside Japan and in conversation with Jon Ostrower Hazy also discussed "weight creep" on the current 787 models.(which the alert bankers prattled on about inthe early December Carson/Shanahan raodshow=webcast).

Hazy insists the initial Dreamliner models are overweight, causing Boeing to trim their range capabilities.(Louis Gunter confirmed that Boeing cut its range forecast for the initial Dreamliners about a year ago because of increased weight). Hazy said flight tests beginning this summer should reveal the extent to which Boeing can cut out some of the excess weight.

In the meantime, Hazy said, Boeing's development of the next major Dreamliner derivative — the bigger 787-10 planned with 300 seats — has slowed down because the extra weight on the base airplane means the bigger derivative will need engines with more thrust than originally planned, as well as stronger landing gear.Tuesday. He said flight tests beginning this summer should reveal the extent to which Boeing can cut out some of the excess weight. March 28, 2006 Boeing to "supersize" 787 "Dreamliner"

Steven Udvar-Hazy told ATWOnline on the sidelines of the ALTA Airline Leaders Forum in Cancun on November 8th that the 787-9 is around 14,000 lb. over budget on its operating empty weight. In addition to the challenge this presents for the -9, it creates a problem for the proposed 787-10 because the additional weight on the already heavier platform could mean a heavier landing gear as well as higher-thrust engines, changes that would cause it to lose a lot of commonality with the smaller -8 and -9 variants, he said.

JAL are quoted saying - “We have been informed that there is a possibility of a delay to the 787-3, ...and we have not received a new delivery schedule since the delays to the programme were announced. Obviously the 787-3 is important to our plans. It has a shorter wingspan, which is important at key airports in Japan.” (Apparently Japanese are smaller - or at least their airports are)

Reuters report that 2 company sources say Japan Airlines Corp is looking at buying some Airbus' mid-sized A350 XWB (extra wide body) planes after production delays for Boeing Co's 787 planes But then as lead buyer there must be some hard bargaining going on for compensation for the delays or even cancellation of the 787-3.

JAL is overhauling its fleet to cope with skyrocketing fuel costs. Just this week it said it planned to raise its fuel surcharge on international routes.'Fuel efficiency is a crucial factor for all aircraft, and that is one of the reasons why we chose (the) 787,' JAL spokesman Stephen Pearlman said.

Japanese heavy industrial firms (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries and Fuji Heavy Industries) are contributing 35% of the construction of the Dreamliner and 70% at least of the carbon Toray Industries Inc*** (April 2006) announced orders from Boeing for PAN carbon Fibre worth US$3 Bn.billion for the Boeing 787 Dreamliner passenger jet. Toray now hold about 32% of global supply which they want to boost to 39% by 2010 to 13,900 tons per annum and to 24,000 tons by 2010.)

We have probably seen the last of the 20% fuel savings claims as well..... and the -3 and -10 variants look way, way down the track ... and the whole Dreamliner project looking very flaky as the compensation claims start mounting.

*** 20th Feb 2008 Toray Industries, Inc. announced that it will expand its capacity to produce the PAN-based carbon fiber TORAYCA*. The company will add to its Ehime Plant an additional carbonization facility for special thin carbon fibers for industrial use having an annual production capacity of 1,000 tons. This new facility is scheduled to begin operation in July 2009. The company’s recently adopted capacity-expansion plan involves a total investment of approximately ¥16 billion (US$1.5Bn.)

The worldwide demand in 2007 for PAN-based carbon fibers is estimated to have been about 35,000 tons, and the demand is expected to expand at an annual rate of 15% or more in the years ahead and to reach close to 53,000 tons per annum in 2010 by which time Toray will be producing 25,000 tons.

Pic Airbus Sigapore Airshow Brochure