Beware God's cleared up the Sun's spots - super cool period ahead ?

Sunspot data has been collected since 1749. Now the job is handled by Mount Wilson Observatory, which is part of UCLA - this pic was taken minutes ago.

Sunspot activity on the face of the sun that we can see is cyclical - we are now at the start of Solar Cycle 24 . It is uncommon / rare for no sunspots to be visible but in the whole of August 2008 not a single sunspot has been recorded (last such even June 1913) - this follows 7 months when the average sunspot number has been 3. (NOAA claim a "half/spot" has been seen in August - Mount Wilson disagree.) Also check out monthly report from Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre SIDA part of Royal Belgian Observatory

The 11-year sunspot cycle is not built symmetrically. The ascending part from minimum to maximum is shorter than the declining part from maximum to minimum.

This apparent lack of solar activity has caught astronomers on the hop. However 2 authors based at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson AZ. proposed, in a paper in 2005 , eventually refused publication in the respected journal Science ,that from observed minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes they could reasonably extrapolate that within 10 years sunspots would vanish completely.

In the past millenium there have been 3 such "Maunder Minimum" events Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age".

Whilst agriculture evidently needs heat for crop growth, cooling produces shorter growing seasons , crop yields drop accelerated by autumn frosts.

Therefore the gloomy summers experienced in the last few years in the UK may be explained by the sun's dynamo slowing down . Anthony Watts a meteorologist explains that the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.

Clouds have a hundred times stronger effect on weather and climate than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. H. E. Landsberg has shown that if the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide content doubled, its effect would be cancelled out if the cloud cover expanded by 1%. (Landsberg, H. E.: Man-made climatic changes. In: Proceedings of the symposium on physical and dynamic climatology of the World Meteorological Organization 347 (1974), 262.)

It seems remarkable but the study of clouds, and their origins is imperfectly understood. Physicist Henrik Svensmark, claims to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth.he says this is a more significant factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.

Briefly , when the solar wind is strong and cosmic rays are weak, the global cloud cover shrinks. It extends when cosmic rays are strong because the solar wind is weak. This effect, attributed to cloud seeding by ionized secondary particles, causes a change in cloud cover by more than 3 % within 3 ½ years.

Ilya Usoskin is a solar physicist at the University of Oulu, Finland, says the equation "more rays equals more clouds" is a simplification and points out the effects are not global but are more important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate.

J. E. Hansen who is a renowned cheer leader and protagonist of global warming said in 1998 (Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., Tegen, I., and Matthews, E.: Climate forcings in the industrial era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95 (1998), 12753-12758:

"The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change ... The natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparisons with general circulation models alone."

Nigel Calder pointed out in the Times Feb 11th 2007 The best measurements of global air temperatures come from American weather satellites, and they show wobbles but no overall change since 1999. The silence of the IPCC lobby remains silent on this unpersuasive and inconvenient Truth.

This was immediately prior to his publication of, "The Chilling Stars: The New Theory of Climate Change " by Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder Amazon billed as "Nigel Calder has provided a very readable explanation of how solar activity affects climate change"

Calder attacks the agreed and current consensus on the role of anthropogenic greenhous gases. Of course non scientific , non peer reviewed souls must not upset the IPCC whose real reason is to increase the size and scope of government, and centralizing power. You notice the alarmism, and their call for "something to be done about it," meaning for individuals to give up freedom and conveniences and for government to increase taxes and regulation. We posted about this Friday, March 09, 2007 The climate on the climate change crisis is changing

But thats's another story ... Meanwhile lets just have a look at the sun - naked.

PS SOHO sun images here SIDA sunspot cycles here as Gemma says, to make them bigger simply click on them.

The Apple iPhone - Under the Hood

The Apple iPhone is a remarkable bit of kit., combined, media player, Web browser and mobile phone, it packs an awful lot in a small space....it is the result, like the recently rolled Boeing Dreamliner 787 of global sourcing.

The most evidently critical componenet is the touch screen, used both for display and data entry which is a product of joint German/ Chinese knowhow. Balda, based in the North West town of Bad Oeynhausen has been making bits of mobile phones including Nokia, Sony Ericsson and Motorola but last year cut its German workforce of 2,400 by 70% and made a huge loss.

Simultaneously selling 6 German factories they opened new facilities in China and India and bought a 50% share of TPK Holdings, a Xiamen based company founded by Taiwanese engineer Michael Chiang, (2006 T/O US$180Mn.) who took up 15% of Balda.

In Xiamen TPK Holding has a manufacturing joint venture Optera Technology Xiamen, Ltd. with the US world market leader for high-tech coatings of touch screen glass Optera which is a subsidiary of the Magna Donnelly Group, one of the world’s biggest automotive suppliers.

Balda who say on their website that they refuse to respond to speculation about whether they are iPhone suppliers have, through the TPK technology been able to supply a tough glass-surfaced screen overlay that is more sensitive, thinner, lighter and harder to scratch or smudge than the plastic displays that are widely used in mobile phones.

It is said that the screen offers sharper resolution, and unlike conventional touch screens—which get confused by more than one finger at a time—Balda's displays can sense several human digits simultaneously. The touch screen overlays an LCD display which is probably multiple sourced from Sharp and Sanyo Epson.

It appears that the main microprocessor chip, although stamped with an Apple logo, has a serial number that chimes with a chip that Samsung sells. Samsung also supplied the NAND-type flash memory that stores data on the phone, including songs, video, and pictures.

The core design of Samsung's chip , is based on a core design that is owned by the British chip technology licensing firm ARM Holdings. ARM does not manufacture chips but licenses designs. There is at least one other ARM-based chip, from NXP Semiconductor (previously Philips Electronics) .

All battery driven products need to lengthen battery life and power managment systems are a major featire of iPhone (claimed talk time on the iPhone's battery is eight hours) and include chips from Philips, Texas Instruments and Linear Technology .

The iPhone is exclusively licensed (you sign for 2 years) for use of AT & T voice and data networks *** (who have such a close working relationship with the US Government secret agencies, see here for suggestion NSA have back door into iPhone ) and uses components from Infineon , Skyworks , RF Micro Devices , and Marvell Technology Group(wi-fi chips) . UK based Cambridge Silicon Radio , bred by Sir Ronnie Cohen's Apax Partners amongst whose shareholders you can include Lord Patel, supplied the Bluetooth chips that connect the iPhone to wireless headsets (US$1.20 income for each phone sold).

A neat feature is the way the screen is automatically orientated for the user which is sensed by an accelerometer—a chip that senses motion—from Swiss based STMicroelectronics (confirmed on their website) handling various aspects of the display are chips from National Semiconductor, Broadcom , and NXP. Idaho-based Micron Technology supplied the imaging chip (MT9T111) that is central to the camera enabling higher-quality pictures without motion image blur and with lower power consumption.

Who puts all this together is a mystery,the trademark Apple distinctive aluminum and stainless steel iPhone case is made by a Taiwanese firm, Catcher Technology and the printed circuit boards are supplied by Taiwan's Unimicron Technology Corp so maybe in Taiwan but certainly not Hon Hai who made the iPOd and who have come in for criticism in the UK press (Daily Mail June 26th) about sweatshop conditions in their Foxconn plant in Longhua, China.

Apple sprung into action when these criticisma were raised and went to investigate the complaints about conditions and pay ...as of June 28, .... "We are still investigating the working conditions at Foxconn's manufacturing plant in Longhua"" said Apple spokesman Steve Dowling. "This is a thorough audit, which includes employee working and living conditions, interviews of employees and managers, compliance with overtime and wage regulations, and other areas as necessary to insure adherence to Apple's supplier code of conduct. Apple's supplier code of conduct sets the bar higher than accepted industry standards and we take allegations of noncompliance very seriously."

So far comment is ecstatic about the phone but owners beware ! The iPhone’s battery is apparently soldered on inside the device and cannot be swapped out by the owner as in most cell phones.

Users will need to submit their iPhone to Apple for battery service. The service will cost users $79, plus $6.95 for shipping, and will take three business days.

The procedure is similar to the one it has for the hugely successful iPod players, but because some users will not want to live without their cell phones, Apple is also offering a loaner iPhone for $29 whilst their indispensible gadget is under repair.

*** It is AT & T Company Privacy Policy that the company, not customers, owns customers' private data. ""While your account information may be personal to you, these records constitute business records that are owned by AT&T," the policy states. "As such, AT&T may disclose such records to protect its legitimate business interests, safeguard others, or respond to legal process."

The company also asserts that it has "an obligation to assist law enforcement and other government agencies responsible for protecting the public welfare, whether it be an individual or the security interests of the entire nation." This new policy, adopted in June 2006, dropped a reference stating that the company "does not access, read, upload or store data contained in or derived from private files without the member's authorization."

EU Don't Agree on Global Warming Targets - but do agree on Biofuels.

The EU member states failed this week to agree on goals for reduction in CO2 a Europe-wide goal to dramatically increase their use of green energy.

Of the 27 members, 10 EU states , led by Sweden and Denmark, wanted to approve a proposal that 20 % Europe's energy use should derive from renewable sources like wind energy or biofuels by 2020. Germany has already passed the 20% target into law -- Germany's current share of renewable energy consumption is about 7 % of total energy currently consumed.

The UK and Poland, objected to the 20% target as a result "confusion over the industrial reforms necessary within each nation." ... which translatres as let's buy some time.

The good news (for the tree huggers) was that the legally binding proposal that biofuels should make up 10 % of gasoline and diesel fuels for vehicles by 2020 was agreed -- subject to the weasel words of a proviso that " ... biofuel becomes commercially available."

As the Mexican have had food riots because the price of tortillas made from corn flour have doubled - following the rise in price of US corn , demanded as fuel by massive expansions of biofuel production - there are voices who say food should be fed to animals and people before making fuel for vehicles.

In the US biofuel production flourishes because the government has mandated Ethanol in Fuels, massively subsidized it's production, and protected the corn ethanol producers from the more efficient ( and low cost) Sugar cane ethanol produced in central and South America with high tariffs..

Of course, publicly-traded corn companies like Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM), Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG - see chart) and Corn Products International Inc. (NYSE: CPO) can't and don't mind that much - their profits are soaring (CPO with US$ 2.62 Bn sales, expects EPS to rise from US$1.63 in '06 to US$2.01 in '07 = 23%) A clutch of smaller biofuels companies have also seen their stock prices soar after hitting the market earlier this year.

Big multinationals like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) must be happy too -- higher prices on big-selling staples are always a good thing for stockholders ... but this year "sustainable" Wal-Mart announced programs to reduce packaging across its global supply chain and to sell 100 million energy efficient compact fluorescent light bulbs at its stores by the end of 2007 - that's one per household.

Should Americans care ? Damn well right they should. There are a lot of low income Hispanics who have been hit by rising food prices, Californian frosts have bumped up the price of citrus fruits , lettuce, avocados , soft fruit like strawberries (up from US42.40 a punnet to US$4.00 in Wal Mart) - Coca Cola who own Minute Maid juices and Pepsi who own Tropicana have put OJ prices up 11% . Remember 2 years ago when Hispanic TV stations in downtown LA led the news with soaring milk price rises ?

Should Europeans care ? Damn well right they should - one consequence is that as corn is used up for fuel, food manufactures shift to wheat - which is now in short supply due to a bad season in Australia, Indian prosperity, wheat prices rise, so European bread prices have risen... and on all projections will continue to rise.

Meanwhile in the unreal world, in Washington the "Global Legislators Organization for a Balanced Environment "(GLOBE) forum met to lay out the broad outlines for a replacement to the Kyoto protocol, which is due to expire in 2012.

Delegates, from the G8 as well as China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa informally agreed that developing countries should face targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions alongside rich countries. Which the thrid world will be delighted to hear.

Plunging further into the unreal world that these utopians engage with, they also backed the idea of a global market to cap and trade carbon dioxide emissions.... it won't stop once Kg of coal, gallon of petrol, BTU of gas being burnt - but it will make one hell of a lot of money for the money jugglers of Wall Street and Threadneedle Street.

This GLOBE group (neat Acronym hey ?) has no legal authority, no official remit, in fact no powers at all ,however their ill considered recommendations will be sent to the meeting of G8 world leaders and can (and will) shape a "new Kyoto." State Department Undersecretary for Democracy and Global Affairs Paula J. Dobriansky (in office since March 2001) was there to put the Administration's views and told the forum that ''We share with other countries the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and introducing new, cleaner technologies.'' ... which is well, a sign of a slight change ...well sort of. Judging by her picture you can bet she believes in Mom and apple pie too.

Surprisingly (although they were probably in town anyway) the bipartisan duo of Senators John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) who are co-sponsoring a new piece of American climate legislation,The Climate Stewardship Act, which they first introduced in 2003 turned up hoping to signal a change in the US position on climate change. Their legislation copies the EU "cap and trade" model, (first used to control acid rain) businesses that exceed a federal cap on emissions would be permitted to buy pollution "credits" from companies that cut their output of CO2. "It's an ingenious solution in which polluters are paying pioneers to innovate," says Lieberman.

It will need a fight to get such laws passed, Idaho Republican Sen. Larry Craig (also in town protecting his lobbyists interests - and hiding from gays outing him) told the Forum that many lawmakers, including himself, will not support mandatory caps because they believe the restrictions will harm U.S. businesses.

"I am convinced that we have reached the tipping point and that the Congress of the United States will act, with the agreement of the administration," McCain told the delegates.

Which leaves a clear message to Stateside investors .. pile into climate change stocks, renewable energy and all the other panaceas of the snake oil salesmen of Pennsylvania Avenue. It will need a fight to get such laws passed, Idaho Republican Sen. Larry Craig (also in town protecting his lobbyists interests - and hiding from gays outing him) told the Forum that many lawmakers, including himself, will not support mandatory caps because they believe the restrictions will harm U.S. businesses.

Greed is good. Gordon Gecko is back in town.

Does the global climate possess a stabilizing negative feedback and is the likely candidate for such a feedback cloud cover ?

The excellent whimsical but nonetheless academically highly authoritative, Canadian Spectator draws our attention to an overlooked paper in 2003 in the Geological Society of America Journal Vol13 Issue 7 July 2003.

Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?
by Nir J. Shaviv, Ján Veizer

They examine how the two principal drivers of the global climate ;

1 Atmospheric levels of CO2
2 The galactic cosmic ray flux (CRF)

are and have been linked to climate variability in the context of daily to millennial variations, ands also over geological time scales e.g the Phanerozoic (past 545 m.y.),

It would be pointless to abbreviate the detailed arguments, maths, geological record, hydrogeological and climate records they use to detremine and illustrate their thesis. There conclusion is however, that when considering both forcing effects that ;

We find that with none of the CO2 reconstructions can the doubling effect of CO2 on low-latitude sea temperatures be larger than ~ 1.9 °C, with the expected value being closer to 0.5 °C. These results differ somewhat from the predictions of the general circulation models (GCMs) (IPCC, 2001), which typically imply a CO2 doubling effect of ~ 1.5–5.5 °C global warming, but they are consistent with alternative lower estimates of 0.6–1.6 °C . See ...

Lindzen, R.S., 1997, Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change?Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 948335–8342.).


They claim in their discussion of Potential implications that their approach , based on entirely independent studies from astrophysics and geosciences, yields a surprisingly consistent picture of climate evolution on geological time scales.

They state that the proposition that celestial phenomena are important for understanding the vagaries of the planetary climate is viable . Most intriguing (and of vast important to the current debate if correct) is their claim that one interpretation of their results could be that the global climate possesses a stabilizing negative feedback and a likely candidate for such a feedback is cloud cover (Lindzen, 1997 op cit Ou, H.-W., 2001, Possible bounds on the Earth's surface temperature: From the perspective of conceptual global mean model: Journal of Climate, v. 142976–2988.).

This therefore implies they argue that the water cycle is the thermostat of climate dynamics, acting both as a positive (water vapor) and negative (clouds) feedback, with the carbon cycle “piggybacking” on, and being modified by, the water cycle. See ...

Nemani, R., White, M., Thornton, P., Nishida, K., Reddy, S., Jenkins, J., Running, S., 2002, Recent trends in hydrologic balance have enhanced the terrestrial carbon sink in the United States: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 29106-1–106-4.

Lovett, R.A., 2002, Global warming: Rain might be leading carbon sink factor: Science, v. 2961787.

Lee, D., Veizer, J., 2003, Water and carbon cycles in the Mississippi river basin: potential implications for the northern hemisphere “residual terrestrial sink”: Global Biogeochemical Cyclesv. 17DOI: 10.1029/2002GB001984.

This is they say an aid to understanding the complexities of climate dynamics and ultimately to quantification of its response to potential anthropogenic impact.

Which of course flies in the face of the hysteria which supports the unwelcome, wholesale and erroneous belief that the sole driver of climate change AKA global warming is driven by atmospheric CO2 and that the source of that is anthropogenic.

Anyone seriously interested in educating themselves about the debate would benefit from reading this major but evidently overlooked study....at least look at the graphs which are very convincing.