DTI continue to whistle in the dark over North Sea Oil production

The DTI Oil production figures for Q2 2006 have been made available as an Excel spreadsheet here.

The headline information appears to have escaped the attention of the Financial press and media generally - the picture it presents is deeply worrying for UK energy consumers (see pic). The scenarios so long forecast by "Forthcoming UK Energy Deficit" (FCUKED) seem to be coming perilously close.

OIL & OIL PRODUCTS 26th October 2006
Table 3.10 Indigenous production, refinery receipts, imports and exports
Oil production in the period June 2006 to August 2006 was 12.1 per cent lower than a year ago.
In 2005 Total Crude oil imports 52,211 thousand tonnes Exports 52,106
In 1st Qtr 2006 Imports 13,668 Exports 12,426
In 2nd Qtr 2006 Imports 13,187 Exports 10,469

In 2005 Total Crude Production 84,721 thousand tonnes
In 1st Qtr 19,795
In 2nd Qtr 17.391

The Government's Energy Review of July stated the UK would not be a net importer until 2010.

These figures show however the U.K. was a net oil importer of 1.6 million tons in the second quarter of 2006 compared with being a net oil exporter by 1.1 million tons in the same period in 2005.

In a remarkable report at cattlenetwork in early October a DTI spokesman (Nick Turton - no Press Statement appears to have been issued) ) said this was partly due to a fire last August at the Schiehallion oil field in the North Sea which knocked out 120,000 barrels a day for most of the month, and several other factors which helped push the U.K.'s oil output to its lowest level for 16 years.

DTI spokesman Nick Turton is quoted saying.

"The DTI expects the U.K. to return to being a net exporter in 2007 before becoming a permanent net importer in 2010."

He added the new Buzzard oil field should offset any losses from declining North Sea oil output from older fields between 2007 and 2010. The field is estimated to produce 200,000 bpd when it comes online.

According to DTI data, U.K. North Sea oil production declined 218,000 b/d in 2003. Since 2004, the depletion rate has remained mostly steady at 230,000 b/d. Now we find in the last Quarter it declined by an unprecedented 12.1%.

Yeah! Yeah! Whatever.

Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts?

Posted by Cry Wolf at the Oil Drum provides a fine detailed and well informed review of this excesive optimism (which is reflected by their Norwegian counterparts as he relates).

The DTI review also shows the lower forecast range for production in 2006 is around 1.5 mmbpd . But the Actual figures for production in August shows indigenous production of oil as 4.730 million tonnes along 0.483 million tonnes of NGL. Using the DTI conversion figures of 1 tonne = 7.5 bbls for crude oil and 1 tonne = 11.5 bbls for NGL this comes out as a mere 1.323 million barrels/day.

Whist these may appear the sort of blips one expects from a large industry with many competing factors, including the weather, threatened strikes by divers etc., the lower expectations have a massive impact on the Balance of Trade / Balnce of Payments.

Cry Wolf points out that The UK and the EU are very vulnerable, as the EU is already recording rising energy imports - much of it reliant on gas imports from Russia who are once again playing fast and loose with customers , this time Georgia.

Identifying the time lag that bad news always takes time to surface he says it is only a matter of time before news of oil imports giving rise to a deteriorating UK trade balance hits the news headlines in the UK.

It is difficult , he says to tell whether UK and EU parliaments are aware of the energy peril that faces them. The official pictures painted by UK authorities are optimistic whilst the reality for the EU is increasing competition for oil in a shrinking international oil export market.

EU wide energy outages overnight only serves to highlight the increasing perilous energy security situation the UK and the EU by years of inattention, supreme optimism. Sleepwalking.

Sleepwalk, talk
Faster and faster
One of these talking birds
Sleepwalk away from disasters
Like they never occured.

Too much devotion
Keeps me apart

Sleepwalk outta my heart

LYRICS © John Cooper Clarke.

On Sunday evening the BBC Panoram programme had a lengthy report about the reliance of Europe on the pipelines from Rissia though Ukraine and and an explanation of the events last New Year.