The War of Unintended Consequences has kicked off

1. The BAE "slush fund" does not give the Saudi Royal Familty the slightest concern - nobody in their fair Kingdom are ever going to read anything about it - and the movers and Sheikhers are all in on it anyway.

2. The story about it being an impediment to signing the "Typhoon" deal is bollocks made up by the increasingly desperate and embarassed Directors ( and heavily re-shiffled) Directors of BAE.

3. The Saudis are now putting money behind the Sunnis in Anbar, big style, still upset about the demise of their star pupil Hariri.

4. On Saturday November 24th ( 2 days after 250 Shi-ites were killed in Sadr City) US Vice President Dick Cheney held talks (well THEY talked to him) with King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz and other top Saudi leaders during a brief visit to Saudi Arabia prior to President George W. Bush meeting (now you see me, now you don't) Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Amman.

US sources said Cheney was expected to ask Abdullah to use his influence to help foster reconciliation in Iraq, which is reeling from an explosion of tit-for-tat sectarian violence between the ruling majority Shiites and the Sunni Arab former elite.

The Riyadh talks were also expected to cover the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the situation in Lebanon, a diplomatic source in the Saudi capital said.

On Monday Saudi Arabia warned against upsetting the "social balance" in Iraq and urged US-led forces to stop outside influences, in an apparent reference to the growing influence of Shiite Iran.

Immediately the points had been made and Cheney had been given a lesson in Arabic history, real politik and enlightenment he left the meeting and the country very quickly.

4a. King Abdullah gave dire warnings that three wars could easily erupt in the region.

5. Evidence is the downing of a USAF F-16 jet fighter with Strela rockets after it dropped cluster bombs on Resistance positions near al-Fallujah midday Monday 27th November 2006. Strela is a generic NATO title for a family of highly mobile, short-range, low altitude infra-red guided surface-to-air missile systems.

Mafkarat al-Islam reported an Iraqi journalist as telling al-Jazeera satellite TV that according to eyewitnesses the American airplane was flying at low altitude in the area when the Resistance ambushed it from the ground and struck it with a missile, bringing it down immediately.

An American statement said that there had been only one pilot aboard the craft. The Mafkarat al-Islam correspondent noted that the airplane had been dropping cluster bombs on Resistance fighters in the area just before it was shot down.

It was later reported that The Mafkarat al-Islam correspondent in Abu Ghurayb reported that more than 100 US armored vehicles, mine sweepers, and Marine troop transports, under a heavy escort of helicopter gun ships and F-16 warplanes flying at low altitudes was making its way west into al-Anbar.

The Mafkarat al-Islam correspondent in al-Karmah, east of al-Fallujah, reported that roads had been closed in that area and an order had been given over loudspeakers banning traffic on the highway.

6. The French as ever, are happy to take over the role of arms supplier to the Saudis and have been in talks ever since the Airshow in Dubai last November - they have also been talking to Mig about their new vector thrust powered Mig 35's.

Increasingly the "Typhoon" which is in use at RAF Scampton is proving to have many, many software problems - when it works it is light , agile acrobatic, superbly fast in climb. It has a very limited range, negligible payload and no close defence.

The talk in Riyadh is of the Rafaele (as it is in Singapore), especially it's stealth characteristics, which the Typhoon simply does not have.

7. The Green light for Trident was staged by our Dear Leader to bolster up the BAE share price in advance of it's sale to Boeing when the Airbus shares have been off loaded. The US are supplying the emisiles they might as well build the boats - an idea that has already been floated.

A major re-alignment of the Saudi / Bahreini / Gulf Alliance is underway. Massive ME tectonic plates are grinding. The War of Unintended Consequences is on it's way. also Pat Buchanan in 2003 May

Mr Bin Laden has lit the blue touch paper in the Saudi Kingdom.

This is not the total picture - updates will follow.

POSTSCRIPT - the delightful and disarmingly beautiful and well spoken Lise Doucet of the BBC reminded Kofi Annan yesterday when he was leaving the UN of what he said in 2003 ...."You must in some way feel sadly vindicated - in 2003, in March, you said that: "A war can lead to unintended consequences, producing new threats and new dangers."