Met Office Summer Forecast - Maybe Hot /Cold, Wet / Dry

The Met Office have today issued their Forecast for Summer 2007 - this is it ...

Temperature

"There is a high probability (at least 70%) that mean summer temperatures will be above the 1971-2000 long-term average over much of western Europe, including the UK. Indications for this year suggest the odds for a particularly hot summer, similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 across the UK, are around 1 in 8."

Precipitation

"Prospects for rainfall are uncertain. However, there are currently no indications of an increased risk of either a particularly dry or a particularly wet summer." ENDS

Apparently this garbage is "derived using global forecasting models and statistical methods."

It is employees of this outfit that can tell us what the climate will be in 50/100 years but boiled down there is a 12.5% chance of a hot summer (if you want the Bayesian analysis) and it probably won't be very dry or very wet.

They helpfully add that "The summer forecast will next be updated at 10 a.m. 1 May 2007." Peer reviewed scientists my arse.