Georgia - Putin and "Mineral Natural Resources In The Development Strategy For The Russian Economy." just another brick in the wall
Keith Johnson at Wall Street Journal Bloggers poses the question today - is the stand off in Georgia a "wake up call" ? Will it wake the dozy people in Washington to "get real" about energy security in a piece today , From Russia With Love: Could Georgia Fight Boost Global Energy Supply?
Conventional wisdom (an idea of JK Galbraith whose son was US Ambassador to Yugolsavia and was a silent but successful proponent of Serbian ethnic cleansing by General Gotovina and then the 79 days of bombing of Belgrade and it's environs by Wesley Clark etc.,) says that Russia's military incursion into Georgia was an extension of their “energy imperialism” - leaving out as everyone armchair generalist seems to, the symbolic capture of the birthplace of the Father of all the Russias ol 'Uncle Joe. Tuesday, November 21, 2006 Russian gas supply problems loom over Europe.... Sunday, November 19, 2006 Gazprom / LUKoil - Russian energy gets to grips with Europe
This conventional wisdom says the Russkis don't like challenges to their energy hegemony. Such as the BTC pipeline . Their muscular response is said to end any Western hopes of expecting other Central Asian countries to stand up to Moscow. see Wednesday, August 15, 2007 Russia / China join in Anti-American Summit and Wargames, Bishkek
Johnson poses the idea that Russian tanks (whom we saw riding roughshod over Georgian Police vehicles blocking their path on the TV news tonight) , their Black Sea gunships, their ballbreaking diplomacy could galvanize the West into seriously getting their act together on a plan for energy security?
Frankly No.
Europe has woken up to a growing dependence on Russian gas. The “Nabucco,” pipeline from the Caspian to Austria is yet another project to be argued over, dithered about, funding sought .....
Italy and Spain and to some extent France get a lot of gas from Algeria where the Russians have effectively won a lot of control and influence ..Looking further to Libya they will find Gazprom is one step ahead , muscling in with long term deals on Tripoli. Putin visited Tripoli in April this year with Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller - Gadaffi got his debt written off, cocked a snook at the Yanquis and has a deal to ship his 1.49 trillion cubic metres of natural gas, lifting up production (and income) from current annual production of just 7 billion cublic metres.. plus lots of other deals, railways and ..er... arms modernization and new weapons programme.. see Kommersant Aug 1st for the cordial relations Putin/Gadaffi ***
Where Gazprom isn't, Vagit Alekperov of LUKoil has been stitching up an empire for Mother Russia (see posts ad nauseum since March 2003 when we marched to Baghdad) see Sunday, March 18, 2007 Russian Roulette in the Middle East - Putin stirs up the hornet's nest
The Georgian conflict could mean redoubling support for Nabucco from Washington stiffening the spine of wavering allies.
As if.
The Putin game plan was no secret, is no secret, it was his Doctorate thesis - "Mineral Natural Resources In The Development Strategy For The Russian Economy." Step by step it has been allowed to take place. see Friday, January 18, 2008 Putin and his gang extend energy interests and ownership . People like Senator Lugar at Riga over 18 months ago gave a wake up call, but he was perhaps not blowing hard enough on his trumpet.
Far from a "wake up call", more of a lullaby for the Pentagon planners.
...get ready Europe, to be paying more for your gas this winter.
If anyone in Washington requires a belated wake up call they can usefully examine a post over 2 1/2 years ago Thursday, February 16, 2006 Putin's team consolidates which ended...
Marx's pamphlet the "Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte" demonstrates how the class struggle in France forced Napoleon to create himself as head of a state run by the security organs and the bureaucracy.Read it to see how we have got where we are ... how Europe and the West get out of it ... well that is another story.
"Bonapartism" has been used to describe a government that forms when a military, police, and state bureaucracy intervenes to establish order.
Putin is forming a Board of Directors composed of friends and work colleagues, who set the agenda for Russian energy policy and in fact control the country's vast energy resources.
Their influence should not be underestimated.
Their activities should be carefully observed in the West. The recent spat over Ukraine gas supplies emphasises that these guys play hardball.
**** Gazprom also have plans to ship Nigerian gas northward across the Sahara to a port terminal in Algeria, or Libya. Nigeria has an estimated 5 trillion cm in gas reserves, and currently ships by sea to Europe and the US. It might be said by some observers that the seemingly ageless Gadaffi and youthful Putin make a formidable combination with their mailed fist on the tap of southern Europe's gas supply.
UPDATE : 1 .Popular search term used on Putin's interests here
2. NATO Meet today to ...well.. meet .. to er discuss what they might say about the situation in Georgia. ..Daily Telegraph "Condoleezza Rice to hold emergency Nato meeting over Russia's stance on Georgia" ...Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security advisor, has described Russia's invasion as "a very sad commentary on eight years of self-delusion in the White House regarding Putin and his regime". John Tusa remembers the "Prague Spring"
3.
3 comments:
I wonder if this has anything to do with algeria's business dealings?
It almost certainly does - significantly the BBC report said..."Algeria has suffered regular attacks blamed on militants linked to al-Qaeda. "
Readers will know we have been folowing Russian diplomatic / military aid activity in Algeria -
http://postmanpatel.blogspot.com/2006/06/russia-arms-algeria-again.html
and the frequent bombings "blamed on militants linked to al-Qaeda."
March 18th 2007 we reported under the heading Algerian Salafist rebels adopt Al Quaeda role - bombings kill foreign workers
"Mind you, Vagit reminds me , there are problems in dealing in these zones, a Russian engineer, 3 Ukrainians and three Algerians were killed and five other people wounded in the bomb attack on their bus on March 5th at Hayoun, near Ain Defla in southern Algeria.The bus was carrying employees of Stroytransgaz , who were laying gas mains between Ain Defla, in the region of Medea, and Tiaret, 340 kilometers southwest of Algiers.
A post which for some reason we signed off ....
Russia and Algeria, recently signed an agrement to coordinate investment and marketing and the transfer of technology - then they get their buses and workers bombed . No wonder Vagit sighed and headed for the casino.
Look out - the Russkis are back . Back in business.
No bombings to report from the Salafist Sisters of the Continiation Al Quaeda Revolution in Tripoli bombing any foreign workers to date.
In June 2006 we ended the post about Russia arming Algeria ...
Russia, is of course the premier gas exporter to Europe, with about 26% of the market. By coordinating its export policies with number 3 exporter Algeria (about 10% of the European market), Russia may be able (and may wish to) to increase its leverage within Europe, complicate the EU's efforts to diversify its sources of supply, and leverage that improved position into greater participation in and influence over Europe's pipeline projects.
If they do take the chance to look at how the Russian silovaki have parlayed their energy resources they may like to take a peek at what is happening currently in Ukraine.
Remember this was 2006 - and before Gazprom stitched up ENI, South Stream etc.,
"They" in this context was the Joint Energy Security Of Supply Working Group (JESS) - BERR .. who incidentally were obliged to provide reports on "Long Term Security of Energy Supply" the last one was the 7th and Final on ecember 2006
pdf here http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file35989.pdf
See Para 7 Page 7
"22. The aim of the Government’s international energy strategy is to secure a reliable supply of energy into the UK, while reducing the damaging emissions that lead to climate change. This was set out originally in the White Paper “UK International Priorities – a strategy for the FCO” (2 December 2003)."
No explanation has been given (despite asking) why these reports stopped. For texts (pdf) of all the reports issued go here
http://tinyurl.com/5hfc23
1 report 2002 , 2 reports 2003 and 2004, 2005, 2006 Finito benito.
Who knows, maybe they thought at BERR that energy security for the UK has ceased to be a problem ?
Maybe it is because the dumb idle , double first fuckers at the Foreign Office simply could not work out that Russians are very (very, very, very) good at Chess - whilst we can play a mean hand of Monopoly at Christmas.
It also worth noting the significant intersection of prior 'terrorist' activity and the military/intelligence services of Algeria.
http://www.algeria-watch.org/en/aw/gia_sm.htm
"The first disclosures by a former secret service agent appeared in the British newspaper The Observer [3] in 1997, which revealed that since 1992, the Algerian military had adopted a radical strategy for ensuring that the Islamists did not come into power. Captain Hocine Ouguenoune explained that Djamel Zitouni became a key instrument for carrying out the strategy. In 1991, Zitouni was allegedly detained in one of the concentration camps, where after having been discovered in homosexual activities, he was pressured by the head of security for the camp to collaborate with the DRS.
Shortly thereafter, the newspaper Le Monde published the statements of another officer [4], who confirmed the recruitment of Zitouni: "We helped him take over the leadership of the GIA. Zitouni was the one who gave us the most important information in our war against the GIA." He also substantiated Algerian secret service involvement in the attacks in Paris: "I confirm that the attacks in Saint Michel [8 dead and over 130 injured on July 25, 1995] and Maison-Blanche [13 injured on October 6, 1995, on the day of the burial of Khaled Kelkal, chief suspect in the failed attacks on the TGV Paris-Lyon] were instigated by the DRS' Service Action de la Direction Infiltration et Manipulation (DIM), which was led by Mohamed Mediene, more commonly known as 'Toufik,' and General Smain Lamari."
The Russkis shouldn't expect things to go smoothly.
marc b.
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