The Putin Doctrine: Nuclear Threats and Russia's Place in the World - : Part 23

Stratfor published an analysis on January 17th, 2000 -The Putin Doctrine: Nuclear Threats and Russia's Place in the World, which in the light of the Topol firecracker this week is worth re-reading.

No matter how unlikely a Russian first strike is, there is a huge difference between a negligible threat and a non-existent one, particularly at the orders of magnitude involved. During the Cold War, the threat of a Soviet nuclear response was in the back of every policy maker's mind when dealing with issues from Nicaragua to Angola to India. That threat disappeared with Glasnost. Putin intends to resurrect it.

The establishment of a deep militarily backed buffer zone along the Russian / Georgian border can also be seen in a different perspective ..

With some reason, Russians are convinced that outside forces - backed by the United States - are supplying Chechen rebels through neighboring Georgia. The situation in Chechnya reminds many Russian military men of Afghanistan, where a great power created logistical support systems and sanctuaries in a neighboring country, bleeding Moscow's forces. Putin is now reminding the United States that the survival of the Russian Federation - intact - is a fundamental national interest. Therefore, any aid to the Chechens threatens an interest so profound that the use of nuclear weapons might be rational.

Putin was then as now speaking to a domestic audience ...

Putin remembers Afghanistan well. He is not going to be drawn into another Afghanistan, nor is he going to withdraw from Chechnya. In the extreme case, anything is possible. And that is precisely the ambiguous situation Putin wants to create. He wants Russia's antagonists to peer into the abyss and see the worst. He is calculating, quite rightly we think, that this will dramatically increase the caution and respect with which Russia is treated. That will yield an international payoff for Russia - and a massive domestic payoff for Putin.

The moves Putin has made seem to be paying off very well for Putin.

We have a Chancellor of the Exchequer appearing in public to explain like the Treasurer explaining to the Sidesmen that, although the books don't appear to balance, and the Vicar has an excellent record, a little more rattling of the collection plates and a few firm stares might well be in order.

We have the Boy David appearing in Ukraine attempting to appear stern, learned and statesmanlike, but is clearly out of his depth as were the Ukraine's last month in the worst floods for 100 years - floods unreported in the UK and for which we offered zero aid or support .....

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Saltanov is a famed Chess player ...