Demand destruction leading to non OPEC oil glut on horizon

Rembrandt at Oil Drum Eurpe has his usual excellent roundup of world oil/liquids production demand - full report here.

is shows how dmeand destruction has started in a big way - excess capcity now will swell with projects coming on line plannedwhen prices were higher."given reasonable expectations of a slow recovery we face a huge glut of oil with capacity several mbd above the 2008 peak and a fairly significant amount not under OPEC control." comments one reader.

1) Conventional crude production - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 1.02 million b/d from December 2008 to January 2009, = total production of crude oil including lease condensates of 71.69 million barrels per day. The all time high production record of crude oil stands at 74.83 million b/d reached in July 2008.

2) Total liquids production - In March 2009 world production of total liquids decreased by 400,000 barrels per day from February according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). resulting in total world liquids production of 83.35 million b/d.

Average global production in 2009 for the first three months of 2009 was 83.9 million b/d. In 2008 and 2007, the averages were 86.59 and 85.41 million b/d respectively. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in their International Petroleum Monthly puts average global 2008 production at 85.46 million b/d and average 2007 production at 84.43 million b/d.

3) OPEC Production - Total crude oil production excluding lease condensates of the OPEC cartel decreased by 230,000 b/d to a level of 27.84 million b/d, from February to March 2009, according to the latest available estimate of the IEA. OPEC natural gas liquids production remained stable from February to March at a level at 4.68 million b/d. Average total liquids production in OPEC countries for the three months ended March 2009 was 33.01 million b/d, versus 36.09 million b/d in 2008, and 35.02 million b/d in 2007.

4) Non-OPEC Production - Total crude oil production including lease condensates of non-OPEC increased by 61,000 b/d from December 2008 to January 2009 to a level of 41.66 million b/d, according to the latest available estimate of the EIA. Average crude oil production of non-OPEC in 2008 was 41.31 million b/d, versus 41.80 million b/d in 2007 and 41.87 million b/d in 2006. Total non-OPEC liquids production decreased by 170,000 b/d to a level of 50.83 million b/d from February to March 2009, according to the latest figures of the IEA. Average total liquids production of non-OPEC for the three months ended March 2009 was 50.89 million b/d.

5) OECD liquids demand - In January 2009 OECD, oil consumption declined by 866,000 b/d from December 2008 according to the latest estimate from JODI, resulting in a total consumption level of 45.84 million b/d, representing a year on year decline of 1.87 million b/d. Average consumption in 2008 was 46.16 million b/d, which is 1.52 million b/d lower than consumption in the same period in 2007.

The physical manifestation in Europe are the loaded mega tankers moored in Lyme Bay, Devon , waiting for the market to rise to dash to Rotterdam.

UK Gilts auction fails - ther IS a limit to what the market will buy .....

Storms can be presaged by the blowing of straw in the wind"of . Well the market landed a hefty bale of the stuff on Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling's desk today.

Today, in the normal way of things the Treasury Debt Management Office - auctioned £1.75bn of a 40 year bond ( of interest principally to annuity issuers - insueres pensions etc.,).

The market picked up 93% or only £163 Mn. of the issue.

The Debt Management Office has a Herculean task of borrowing at least £147.9bn of gilts in the next 12 months - there are many who say uncontrolled public expenditure might mean they could be looking for £200Bn.

There must be some sweaty palms in the Treasury this evening.

Pig Sick - Our Pigs, Our Food, Our Health - MRSA ST398 - the new community health problem ?

'Sick as a pig' is a campaigning film produced and filmed in Holland and commissioned by the Soil Association in conjunction with Compassion in World Farming. This exposes the rise of a new strain of MRSA in pigs (called ST398), and links its with the overuse of antibiotics on intensive pig farms throughout Europe. (Press release)

Amongst other claims the producers say 40% of Dutch pigs and up to 50% of Dutch pig farmers are now carrying this new and virulent strain which is spreading into the wider population. First detected in Holland in 2003 it now causes almost one in three cases of MRSA treated in Dutch hospitals, the programme makers said. In Dutch hospitals farmers are no longer permitted in general wards without prior screening.

The widespread use of antibiotics in intensive pig farming is claimed to be the cause for rapid spread of farm-animal MRSA.The Soil association claim some 60-70% of British farmers regularly use large doses of antibiotics in pig production. Organic standards, prohibit the routine use of antibiotics.

A spokesman for British Pig Exporters (BPEX) said: "MRSA has not been detected in farmed livestock in the UK and there is no current evidence that food producing animals form a reservoir in the UK.

Sixty percent of the pork meat the UK consumes is imported. 87% of imported bacon comes from the Netherlands or Denmark. 63% of imported pork and 57% of imported processed pig meat comes from Denmark, the Netherlands or Germany.

"The European Food Safety Authority is undertaking studies, looking at the issue of MRSA in food-producing animals and considering what surveillance and other actions would be most appropriate for monitoring use of antibiotics - which the UK are helping with.

The UK has decided not to publish any British results from the EU survey of pigs for MRSA before November 2009.(Perhaps the problem will disappear if it is ignored - like Blue Tongue in cattle)

The first concete evidence that pigs could infect people with MRSA came in the Netherlands in 2004, when a young woman tested positive for a new strain of MRSA, called ST398. The family lived on a farm, public health authorities moved in in — and found that three family members, three co-workers and 8 of 10 pigs tested all carried MRSA. See Pigs to humans: alert over new MRSA strain Guradian 25th June 2007

A small Dutch study found pig farmers there were 760 times more likely than the general population to carry MRSA (without necessarily showing symptoms), and Scientific American reports that this strain of MRSA has turned up in 12 percent of Dutch retail pork samples.Now this same strain of MRSA has also been found in the United States. A new study by Tara Smith, a University of Iowa epidemiologist, found that 45 % of pig farmers she sampled carried MRSA, as did 49 % of the hogs tested.

Farming UK has a story 2 weeks ago that (MRSA) has been found at several farms in Switzerland by the the Swiss federal veterinary office (BVET).

The bacteria was found in one pig and two cows on farms in the West of Switzerland. In addition, three producers have been contaminated.

The infections were discovered through research by the University of Lausanne and the Institute Galli-Valerio, that investigated over 100 farms on MRSA. They discovered the prevalence of the MRSA strain ST398.

The report says that MRSA in pigs has also recently been established in the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Canada and the USA.

To arrive at some understanding of the scale ofthe problem - The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 94,000 Americans get serious, invasive MRSA infections each year and nearly 19,000 die. Treatment costs between $3 and $4 billion a year, according to an estimate by Dr. Larry Liu of Pfizer Inc. One study(2006 Morbidity and cost burden of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in early onset ventilator-associated pneumonia) shows Attributable excess costs ) of MRSA amounted to approximately US$8000 per case after controlling for case mix and severity.

Note : 'Sick as a pig' can be viewed online at http://www.theecologist.org/etv/
and http://www.green.tv/ecologist_sick_as_a_pig1 (from 13.30, 20 th March)
It is a new documentary made by the Ecologist Film Unit based on an investigation by Ecostorm for the Soil Association / Compassion in World Farming and the Soil Association report, 'MRSA in farm animals and meat: a new threat to human health'

Chinese increase Amsterdam port facilities

Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), is a wholly owned a subsidiary of the Hong Kong (China) ultinational conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa Limited (HWL), They have interest in 50 ports, including Rotterdam and Felixstowe and in 26 countries throughout Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, the Americas and Australasia (see complete list). HPH also owns a number of transportation-related service companies. In 2007, the HPH Group handled a combined throughput of 66.3 million (20 fooe container equivalent) TEU's worldwide. Last year trade rose 4 per cent in the first half to 32.8 million TEU, increasing revenue by 10 % more revenue to hit HK$19.5 billion. (US$2.13 Bn.)

Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) have signed an agreement with Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK) in a share swap and HPH will become the majority shareholder of Amsterdam-based Ceres Container Terminals Europe B.V. (CTE) in the Netherlands. In exchange for the majority stake in CTE, NYK will have a minority stake in Europe Container Terminals (ECT) in Rotterdam.

Commenting on the agreement, John Meredith, Group Managing Director of HPH, said, "The investment in CTE will help strengthen HPH's presence in Northern Europe through the addition of extra container-handling capacity. CTE's strategic location allows it to attract deep-sea and feeder traffic as well as inland traffic."

CTE consist of 2 wholly owned subsidiaries, Ceres Paragon Terminals (CPT)(see pic) and Ceres Amsterdam Marine Terminals (CAMT).

CAMT is a Ro-Ro terminal that performs stevedoring activities for automobile carriers and has a number of warehouses for the storage of cocoa.

UK : Number of vehicles up , new ones down

The total number of motor vehicles licensed at the end of 2006 was 1.4 % up on the end of 2005 at 33.4 million.

The number of vehicles registered for the first time during 2006 was 3.6 % down on 2005 (cars of all types -4.2%)

With the exception of taxis there were decreases in first time registrations for all body types. Full DVLA annual statistics