Demand destruction leading to non OPEC oil glut on horizon

Rembrandt at Oil Drum Eurpe has his usual excellent roundup of world oil/liquids production demand - full report here.

is shows how dmeand destruction has started in a big way - excess capcity now will swell with projects coming on line plannedwhen prices were higher."given reasonable expectations of a slow recovery we face a huge glut of oil with capacity several mbd above the 2008 peak and a fairly significant amount not under OPEC control." comments one reader.

1) Conventional crude production - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 1.02 million b/d from December 2008 to January 2009, = total production of crude oil including lease condensates of 71.69 million barrels per day. The all time high production record of crude oil stands at 74.83 million b/d reached in July 2008.

2) Total liquids production - In March 2009 world production of total liquids decreased by 400,000 barrels per day from February according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). resulting in total world liquids production of 83.35 million b/d.

Average global production in 2009 for the first three months of 2009 was 83.9 million b/d. In 2008 and 2007, the averages were 86.59 and 85.41 million b/d respectively. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in their International Petroleum Monthly puts average global 2008 production at 85.46 million b/d and average 2007 production at 84.43 million b/d.

3) OPEC Production - Total crude oil production excluding lease condensates of the OPEC cartel decreased by 230,000 b/d to a level of 27.84 million b/d, from February to March 2009, according to the latest available estimate of the IEA. OPEC natural gas liquids production remained stable from February to March at a level at 4.68 million b/d. Average total liquids production in OPEC countries for the three months ended March 2009 was 33.01 million b/d, versus 36.09 million b/d in 2008, and 35.02 million b/d in 2007.

4) Non-OPEC Production - Total crude oil production including lease condensates of non-OPEC increased by 61,000 b/d from December 2008 to January 2009 to a level of 41.66 million b/d, according to the latest available estimate of the EIA. Average crude oil production of non-OPEC in 2008 was 41.31 million b/d, versus 41.80 million b/d in 2007 and 41.87 million b/d in 2006. Total non-OPEC liquids production decreased by 170,000 b/d to a level of 50.83 million b/d from February to March 2009, according to the latest figures of the IEA. Average total liquids production of non-OPEC for the three months ended March 2009 was 50.89 million b/d.

5) OECD liquids demand - In January 2009 OECD, oil consumption declined by 866,000 b/d from December 2008 according to the latest estimate from JODI, resulting in a total consumption level of 45.84 million b/d, representing a year on year decline of 1.87 million b/d. Average consumption in 2008 was 46.16 million b/d, which is 1.52 million b/d lower than consumption in the same period in 2007.

The physical manifestation in Europe are the loaded mega tankers moored in Lyme Bay, Devon , waiting for the market to rise to dash to Rotterdam.