Georgia - Putin and "Mineral Natural Resources In The Development Strategy For The Russian Economy." just another brick in the wall

Keith Johnson at Wall Street Journal Bloggers poses the question today - is the stand off in Georgia a "wake up call" ? Will it wake the dozy people in Washington to "get real" about energy security in a piece today , From Russia With Love: Could Georgia Fight Boost Global Energy Supply?

Conventional wisdom (an idea of JK Galbraith whose son was US Ambassador to Yugolsavia and was a silent but successful proponent of Serbian ethnic cleansing by General Gotovina and then the 79 days of bombing of Belgrade and it's environs by Wesley Clark etc.,) says that Russia's military incursion into Georgia was an extension of their “energy imperialism” - leaving out as everyone armchair generalist seems to, the symbolic capture of the birthplace of the Father of all the Russias ol 'Uncle Joe. Tuesday, November 21, 2006 Russian gas supply problems loom over Europe.... Sunday, November 19, 2006 Gazprom / LUKoil - Russian energy gets to grips with Europe

This conventional wisdom says the Russkis don't like challenges to their energy hegemony. Such as the BTC pipeline . Their muscular response is said to end any Western hopes of expecting other Central Asian countries to stand up to Moscow. see Wednesday, August 15, 2007 Russia / China join in Anti-American Summit and Wargames, Bishkek

Johnson poses the idea that Russian tanks (whom we saw riding roughshod over Georgian Police vehicles blocking their path on the TV news tonight) , their Black Sea gunships, their ballbreaking diplomacy could galvanize the West into seriously getting their act together on a plan for energy security?

Frankly No.

Europe has woken up to a growing dependence on Russian gas. The “Nabucco,” pipeline from the Caspian to Austria is yet another project to be argued over, dithered about, funding sought .....

Italy and Spain and to some extent France get a lot of gas from Algeria where the Russians have effectively won a lot of control and influence ..Looking further to Libya they will find Gazprom is one step ahead , muscling in with long term deals on Tripoli. Putin visited Tripoli in April this year with Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller - Gadaffi got his debt written off, cocked a snook at the Yanquis and has a deal to ship his 1.49 trillion cubic metres of natural gas, lifting up production (and income) from current annual production of just 7 billion cublic metres.. plus lots of other deals, railways and ..er... arms modernization and new weapons programme.. see Kommersant Aug 1st for the cordial relations Putin/Gadaffi ***

Where Gazprom isn't, Vagit Alekperov of LUKoil has been stitching up an empire for Mother Russia (see posts ad nauseum since March 2003 when we marched to Baghdad) see Sunday, March 18, 2007 Russian Roulette in the Middle East - Putin stirs up the hornet's nest

The Georgian conflict could mean redoubling support for Nabucco from Washington stiffening the spine of wavering allies.

As if.

The Putin game plan was no secret, is no secret, it was his Doctorate thesis - "Mineral Natural Resources In The Development Strategy For The Russian Economy." Step by step it has been allowed to take place. see Friday, January 18, 2008 Putin and his gang extend energy interests and ownership . People like Senator Lugar at Riga over 18 months ago gave a wake up call, but he was perhaps not blowing hard enough on his trumpet.

Far from a "wake up call", more of a lullaby for the Pentagon planners.

...get ready Europe, to be paying more for your gas this winter.

If anyone in Washington requires a belated wake up call they can usefully examine a post over 2 1/2 years ago Thursday, February 16, 2006 Putin's team consolidates which ended...

Marx's pamphlet the "Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte" demonstrates how the class struggle in France forced Napoleon to create himself as head of a state run by the security organs and the bureaucracy.

"Bonapartism" has been used to describe a government that forms when a military, police, and state bureaucracy intervenes to establish order.

Putin is forming a Board of Directors composed of friends and work colleagues, who set the agenda for Russian energy policy and in fact control the country's vast energy resources.

Their influence should not be underestimated.

Their activities should be carefully observed in the West. The recent spat over Ukraine gas supplies emphasises that these guys play hardball.

Read it to see how we have got where we are ... how Europe and the West get out of it ... well that is another story.

**** Gazprom also have plans to ship Nigerian gas northward across the Sahara to a port terminal in Algeria, or Libya. Nigeria has an estimated 5 trillion cm in gas reserves, and currently ships by sea to Europe and the US. It might be said by some observers that the seemingly ageless Gadaffi and youthful Putin make a formidable combination with their mailed fist on the tap of southern Europe's gas supply.

UPDATE : 1 .Popular search term used on Putin's interests here
2. NATO Meet today to ...well.. meet .. to er discuss what they might say about the situation in Georgia. ..Daily Telegraph "Condoleezza Rice to hold emergency Nato meeting over Russia's stance on Georgia" ...Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former national security advisor, has described Russia's invasion as "a very sad commentary on eight years of self-delusion in the White House regarding Putin and his regime". John Tusa remembers the "Prague Spring"
3.

Cold wars suddenly got colder - Official .. Re - run those reels won't yah ?

This is a copy of the post made on December 3rd 2006. - we referred to remarks by Senator Lugar in our post on Saturday European Energy security exposed by events in Georgia - and winter is 2/3 months away - UK decades of delay ... A kind visitor remembered this post and suggested it was repeated 20 months later. Oil was then around US$60 a barrel and in the US Regular Unleaded gas was US$2.10 at the pump ... As we remarked then .. he highlighted that we live in a much changed .. and rapidly changing world of energy flows.

Mobile Topol-M ballistic missile
Lord Patel met Senator Richard Lugar , Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations committe at Purdue this summer, whilst his immediate interest was to boondoggle for his home state Indiana's share of ethanol subsidies he made some trenchant remarks about energy security in the modern world.

He is a tough, shrewd, worldly wise politician who is now bowing out from centre stage. Following his summertime remarks in Purdue, he made a chracteristically blunt (but unremarked ) speech at the Marshall Fund conference in Riga, in Latvia in advance of the NATO summit. In the light of Turkmenbashis's death it is worth considering. Full text at US Embassy

NATO he points out is bigger, it is busier than ever. That is not a guarantee however of security in a global world - when NATO was originally forged to deal with the defence of Europe from the Warsaw Pact countries. He dwelt at some length on the role of NATO in Afghanistan ...

"Although the hunt for al-Qaeda terrorists continues, the primary threat to the stability of Afghanistan is Taliban insurgents who are challenging ISAF in greater numbers, sowing dissent among Afghanis, cooperating with the bourgeoning narcotics trade, and complicating security efforts in ways that inhibit the rule of law and reconstruction."

He pointed out that whatever the political will, action was dependent upon expenditure ..

"To overcome these challenges and similar ones, we must reverse the downward spiral of defense budgets. Only a handful of members spend more than 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. Good intentions can only carry a military force so far ..."

He pointed out what many in the US see as the foot dragging of NATO nations ..

"It is imperative that NATO fulfills its commitments to Afghanistan. The Alliance has found it difficult to generate the political will to meet NATO objectives.....Unfortunately, NATO capitals are making the military mission even more difficult by placing national caveats on the use of their forces. These restrictions, coupled with troop shortages, are making ISAF a less cohesive and capable force."

He moved on and marked the " Centrality of Energy" to the NATO mission, to prevent wars and not fight them. He then outlined a key problem which a less than united Europe should consider..

" In the coming decades, the most likely source of armed conflict in the European theater and the surrounding regions will be energy scarcity and manipulation. It would be irresponsible for NATO to decline involvement in energy security, when it is abundantly apparent that the jobs, health, and security of our modern economies and societies depend on the sufficiency and timely availability of diverse energy resources."

" .... our experiences provide little reason to be confident that market rationality will be the governing force behind energy policy and transactions."

He then highlighted that we live in a much changed .. and rapidly changing world of energy flows.

"As recently as four years ago, spare production capacity exceeded world oil consumption by about ten percent. As world demand for oil has rapidly increased in the last few years, spare capacity has declined to two percent or less. Thus, even minor disruptions of oil supply can drive up prices."

He continued, to describe what he was to call geo-strategic blackmail.

"We are used to thinking in terms of conventional warfare between nations, but energy could become the weapon of choice for those who possess it. It may seem to be a less lethal weapon than military force, but a natural gas shutdown to a European country in the middle of winter could cause death and economic loss on the scale of a military attack."

he then warmed to the core of his concerns, which affects NATO and their allies.

"We must move now to address our energy vulnerability. "

"Article Five of the NATO Charter identifies an attack on one member as an attack on all.....We should recognize that there is little ultimate difference between a member being forced to submit to foreign coercion because of an energy cutoff and a member facing a military blockade or other military demonstration on its borders."

Addressing the concerns about Rusia he called for dialogue ..

"I believe that Russia has a long-term interest in achieving a more prosperous stability that comes with greater investment in its energy sector and the development of a reputation as a trusted supplier. But its recent actions to temporarily reduce gas supplies to the West, confiscate some foreign energy investments, and create further barriers to new investment are undermining confidence in Moscow’s reliability. "

Remember ....this was before Gazprom successfully strong armed Shell over Sakhalin and Tblisi gave in on a new price for gas from next week.

He concluded ..

"I understand that adopting energy security as a mission is a major advancement from NATO’s origins. But it represents an historic opportunity to change the circumstances of geopolitics to the benefit of all members".

Meanwhile the first regiment of Topol-M mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) went on active duty in the Ivanovo region in central Russia this month and received a visit from President Vladimir Putin on 14 December 2006. He called the deployment a "significant step forward in improving our defense capabilities".(see exclusive pic)

"Maintaining a strategic balance will mean that our strategic deterrent forces should be able to guarantee the neutralization of any potential aggressor, no matter what modern weapon systems he possesses," Putin said.

The state-of-the-art mobile Topol-M ballistic missile, with a liftoff weight of 47.2 tonnes, a range of more than 10,000 kilometers and capability of carrying a 1,200-kilogram warhead, which is immune to electromagnetic impulses is a valuable reminder of the uncreasingly tough competition between the great powers for unimpeded access to raw materials, including energy resources.

On 15 December 2006 Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander or Russia's Strategic Missile Forces,said "We will begin to equip the Topol-M mobile missile system with multiple re-entry vehicles in a few years."

Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych had a visitor to discuss gas supplies for winter this week. President Putin.

European Energy security exposed by events in Georgia - and winter is 2/3 months away - UK decades of delay ...

Robert Gates the US Secretary of Defence made a speech to NATO about NATO in February this year ... as things start to boil in Georgia it might be worth recalling a few things he said ..

The Alliance must put aside any theology that attempts clearly to divide civilian and military operations. It is unrealistic. We must live in the real world. As we noted as far back as 1991, in the real world, security has economic, political, and social dimensions. And vice versa. The E.U. and NATO need to find ways to work together better, to share certain roles – neither excluding NATO from civilian operations nor barring the E.U. from military missions. In short, I agree entirely with Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer and Minister Morin’s comments yesterday that there must be a “complimentarity” between the E.U. and NATO.

He also recalled the Berlin airlift in 1948 ...

In January of that year, Ernest Bevin, the British foreign secretary, went before parliament to discuss the Soviet Union and other threats to the United Kingdom. Between all the “kindred souls of the West,” he said, “there should be an effective understanding bound together by common ideals for which the Western Powers have twice in one generation shed their blood.”

Less than two months later, President Harry Truman stood in the United States Congress and echoed that sentiment. He said: “The time has come when the free men and women of the world must face the threat to their liberty squarely and courageously . . . Unity of purpose, unity of effort, and unity of spirit are essential to accomplish the task before us.”

That unity held for decades through ups and downs. It held despite divisions and discord, stresses and strains, and through several crises where another war in Europe loomed. Alexis de Tocqueville once warned that democracies, when it comes to foreign affairs, were ill-suited to pursue a “great undertaking” and “follow it [through] with determination.” But the democracies of the West did just that – for more than 40 years. And they can do so once more today.

This was sometime after Aneurin (Nye) Bevan said in a speech at Blackpool..

This island is made mainly of coal and surrounded by fish. Only an organizing genius could produce a shortage of coal and fish at the same time. Daily Herald, 25 May 1945

Yet Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana at Riga gave a keynote speech to the German Marshall Fund conference on Monday, November 27, 2006 in advance of the NATO summit , which it is well worth re-visiting ..

The Centrality of Energy

NATO’s challenges continue to come in new formations. We have to understand not only the military configuration of threats before us, but also the likely basis for future conflict. The NATO alliance has been successful, not because it fought wars, but because it prevented them. If the NATO alliance is to be fully relevant to the security of its members, it must expand beyond the mission of military defense and begin to think about how to prevent the conditions that will lead to war.

In the coming decades, the most likely source of armed conflict in the European theater and the surrounding regions will be energy scarcity and manipulation. It would be irresponsible for NATO to decline involvement in energy security, when it is abundantly apparent that the jobs, health, and security of our modern economies and societies depend on the sufficiency and timely availability of diverse energy resources.

We all hope that the economics of supply and pricing surrounding energy transactions will be rational and transparent. We hope that nations with abundant oil and natural gas will reliably supply these resources in normal market transactions to those who need them. We hope that pipelines, sea lanes, and other means of transmission will be safe. We hope that energy cartels will not be formed to limit available supplies and manipulate markets. We hope that energy rich nations will not exclude or confiscate productive foreign energy investments in the name of nationalism. And we hope that vast energy wealth will not be a source of corruption within nations that desperately ask their governments to develop and deliver the benefits of this wealth broadly to society.

"We hope that energy rich nations will not exclude or confiscate productive foreign energy investments in the name of nationalism" .. well what has happened with TNK-BP .

What is happening to the BTC pipeline as you read this ?

What is happening to European energy security ?

Are we FCUKED ? See The Oil Drum for Forum on events in Georgia and the BTC pipeline - ecellent well informed comments.

Read both of the speeches , go to the Lugar Energy initiative and reflect on what has happened over the last 3 decades in Europe and especially the UK to secure our energy security.

Obama prays with the white middle class and eats with .. well .. different people

St Luke's United Methodist Church @ 86th and Meridian, Indianapolis,IN is in the heart of republican Indy - and counts Republican Senator Dan Lugar as a worshipper amongst it's 6,500 strong communion.

It was some what of a surprise therefore when Illinois Sen. Barack Obama called by on Sunday for the third service at 11.00 when Dr. Linda McCoy was preaching on the theme "Saying yes" , (Obama's campaign slogan is "Yes we can") along with a hustling crowd of bulky men with earphones carefully positioned around him, seven pews back.

Rev. Kent Millard oversees the flock with an annual budget of US$2.4 Mn and his grand daughter Taylor Hall, 7, sat next to Obama for much of the service, while her brother Tre Hall, 18, got a chance to speak to Obama before the service and fill him in on the youth scene in down town Indy.

After leaving St. Luke's, he headed for the bustling Country Kitchen at the corner of College Avenue and 18th Street. These are a chain of low cost diners that appeal to large families and large people who specialise in down home cooking and specials on hominy grits. Expect to see folks reading the bible on a Sunday as they chomp through bacon ,eggs, sausages, hash browns, waffles with strawberries and cream and root beer floats.

He was joined by U.S. Rep. Andre Carson, D-Ind., who is facing his own challenge in the May primary for the 7th District seat, and local Democratic Party officials.

"It's an exciting time to be a Democrat," said City-County Councilman Jose Evans, who was dining with Carson. "This is the most exciting times since the Kennedy days . . . (although) I wasn't alive then."

"Inner-city Indianapolis is a place where people need to be acknowledged," added local educator Evelyn Gearries, who was among a throng of diners surprised as Obama walked in the door. "Obama coming here shows he's doing more than talking about change."

As the candidate made his way around the restaurant, diners broke out into a chant of his campaign's slogan, "Yes, we can."

This morning (Monday) in a couple of hours (8.45am )Bill Clintonan will be making an appearance at Carmel High School (with a superb national and statewide reputation)to wrap up a 2 day whistle stop tour of the state.Shrillary arrives tomorrow for stops in Indianapolis, Hobart and Princeton. On Wednesday, she visits Kokomo, and she will be in Terre Haute on Thursday.

Popeye Pete in a local web Forum says .."I have voted Republican for many, many years. This year it is going to be different. I would rather vote for Hillary, but in either case I will vote the Democrat ticket in the fall. I voted for Bush two times. What a stupid mistake. It's time to get out of Iraq and bring our young people home. I will be voting for Hillary next month. " .. which seems to be an increasingly familiar refrain, especially amongst the older voters.


Sgt Ryan Jopek 20 , Wisconsin memorial from Gannet newspapers official news of death from IED exploding

Go to this website if you want to support Obama in Indiana sport this on your blog, or buy a T shirt.

Indiana for Barack Obama Come show your support for this man!

US launches 2 pronged diplomatic assault on Central Asian republics - Afghanistan poppies and pipelines

Adm. William Fallon, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), has been dashing about the Central European Republics of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and also Pakistan. On the 26th Jan he met Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov in Ashkhabad. It was no coincidence that he had been preceded by Senator Richard Lugar, who also visited Ashkhabad where he tells us that pipelines were high on the agenda. He also made stops in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and finally - on his way home - Ukraine.

In Tashkent, Fallon met President Karimov, fresh from his unexpected success in the December presidential elections (a third term - despite a constitution limiting presidents to two terms in office) as well as the Security Council secretary, defense and foreign ministers and the commander of the border troops and is said to have focussed his meetings on the problems the US have in Afghanistan - although the meetings were wrapped in secrecy.

There has been an apparent change in the official Tashkent stance which has been reciprocated by EU Special Representative for Central Asia Pierre Morel announcing that the EU considers Uzbekistan a reliable partner and wants to promote cooperation with it...on Jan. 17, just one day after Karimov's inauguration.

Brussels partially alleviated the sanctions imposed on Uzbekistan after the Andijan events and to reciprocate , Uzbekistan pardoned several human-rights champions, and has abolished capital punishment , and gave the courts the right to issue sanctions for arrest, thereby demonstrating its interest in normalizing relations with the EU.

Evidently the EU and the US are responding to the real politik that Karimov - unless he magically disappears - is there for another 7 years, sedulously playing Russia, China, Japan against the US and EU energy interests.

Human rights ... well Karimov didn't actually ban capital punishment .. it appears he is having a look at it.

Another Bloody silly conspiracy theory Part 2 - One of their Missiles is missing !!

Quite how or why I woke upon the floor behind a couch in a hospitality lounge at the RCA Dome with Melissa and Tamburlaine, 2 noisy but (very) friendly wannabe Colts cheer Leaders on Wednesday morning 2nd January 3 days after the Tennessee Titans beat the Colts in their last game at the RCA Dome is something best left alone.

Sufficient to say that these two ladies had, with the help of an old Indian remedy that Tamburlaine's dad makes up (out of Wild Turkeys apparently), a sort of deep brown hot choking liquid best washed down with spring water and plenty of ice. Rubbed on it can be very efective too .. and licked off even.

Anyway, it sounded as though a game was still on because we could hear loud cheering - to discover that 3,400 of Hoosier State's finest - the Indiana National Guard’s 76th Infantry

...and Dan Lugar and Mitch Daniels were giving the 3,400 soldiers a rousing send off ... and the 3,400 families, wives, mothers sweethearts many of hwom will not see their loved one again..time to weep.

Well we bump into Dan and Mitch ..."Lord Patel !" exclaims Mitch ..."Why haven't see you since the Seminar in Purdue last year that Dan held (the Richard G. Lugar-Purdue Summit on Energy Security held on on Purdue's campus in West Lafayette, Indiana August 2006) see Post.

Dan shhook my hand and eyed my friends , magically grown by two more who had attached themselves to us.

Well this went down well with the girls and magically a couple more came over and in minutes we were ensconced in some swell apartment where these girls used to do massages for the guy Randall Tobias who Madame Palfrey helped - he wrote the book about cheese and was a big cheese at Lilly.

Well the rest is a blur of newspapers / TV / Radio / quips from Dan and Mitch and may not be in the right order...

It all started when when Tammy was ( only a short girl but "big" in many ways) was easing the old collar bone - or some bone and I was reading ...

US special forces snatch squads are on standby to seize or disable Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in the event of a collapse of government authority or the outbreak of civil war following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

The troops, augmented by volunteer scientists from America's Nuclear Emergency Search Team organisation, are under orders to take control of an estimated 60 warheads dispersed around six to 10 high-security Pakistani military bases.

"Is this right ? " I asked Dan who raised an eybrow - you know the way he does... "well...let's say plans are always in place....." and went back to what looked like sleep.

Well I don't know what happened then but time, as they say had passed. Next minute (?) we were watching Breaking News on CNN - a sombre voiced guy with a beard and popping eyes was saying President Bush would address the nation from the White House at the unprecdented time of 1.00 am EST.

The next minute there was Dubya , in the fierce glare of the Kleig lights.. " Citizens, this is your War President , today US forces took control of the Pakistani Nukular arsenal at Islam is Bad . The world is safe in our ...er...hands .." with this he raised his right hand whih was bearing one of those nifty golf gloves used to correct your swing by inserting weights. He shuffled off grinning whilst the Press Bayed...Mr president FOX is reporting 700 dead ... BBC say 14 sites have been attacked ...The Chinese say B1 bombers from Diego Garcia ....

Tony Lemon stepped forward. "gentleemen there will be no questions".... The mob of reporters howled "NO FUCKING QUESTIONS .... WHY !!!!"

"Because we have no answers" sayd Tony and the lights went out.

Well the rest is a jumble as Dan's phone went , as did he... FOX said the Marines had attacked 3 sites with the newly deployed Osprey 4 out of six which crashed on the way there.. ( having forgotten the one that crashed undertaking an emergency landing the last Sunday in October at at the Highway Draw Bridge, on Highway 70 IS Beaufort, NC 28516 heading for Cherry point Air base... seen by civilians and staff at the National Coat Guard ,Atlantic Beach, NC 28512 - hushed up and hauled away - never to be reported)...

Melissa again with this Wild Turkey thing and I was dreaming ...or was I ... maybe it was "Enchanted" all over again, but I could see spinning Headlines ...

"One of their Missiles is Missing !!!" .... "Paki Nuke Missile lost !!!" ...

Well evidently the shit hit the fan and the TV screen was full of jabbering voices. Did this mean the Taliban had a missile had someone not counted right , were the figures wrong.

Then the pizza guy arrived and seeing this wild trukey stuff decided to join in started teling us of his time in Eye Raq...

The we see a sombre looking Olmerde telling us that the Paki sooper dooper Nuki paki missile had been fired ? Exploded and tracked and maybe aimed ? at the US sixth Fleet and IT COULD HAVE REACHED TEL AVIV !!!

Papers full of pictures of terrist activity globally (see pic)

Obama ...stuttering ..." calm nerves "...clarification "...Hillary " we always said we shoudl move more troops to Iraq".... Dybya "I am a war President" .. Riots in Islam is Bad again and again ... Gordon Brown had a bad head cold. Angela Merkel ahd a bad head cold.

Fred Thompson saying over and over ..."This is why we needed to keep Gitmo open" .. and his poll numbers jumped.

Step forward the cheese eating surrender monkeys.

Headlines agian ...was this Saturday already ? Constitution suspended. President for Life ...was that Dubya or Mushariff ... or even Sarkozy ?

Anyway the next thing I know is the ER and someone looking with a pencil torch thing and muttering about rebel yell.

Was it all a dream ... Maybe it was. Tom Brady q'backing for the Patriots against the Giants all over again . he plays a 55 yard running pass, Moss Fumbles ... the crowd gasps. The clock is ticking.

Brady stands cool.

HE PLAYS THE SAME GODDAM PLAY

AND THIS TIME IT GODDAM WORKS AND RANDY MOSS TOUCHES DOWN AND THE GIANTS WEEP

That beats Jerry Rice's TD passes of the San Francisco 49ers in 12 games in 1987, a strike season and Brady edges out Payton Manning for TD passes.

Funny thing they blew up the WTC once ...didn't work ...they tried again.That time it worked.

Saddam's missiles disappearded in mysterious circumstances. So did one of Mushariff's

Hatf VI (Shaheen II), with a range of 1,555 miles, can carry "nuclear and conventional warheads with high accuracy," a Pakistan military statement said after a test firing April 28th last year - whilst everyone watched.

Talk of the Draft...the Winds of War

Not a word of the above is (or could possibly be true). Quite simply these things just do not happen.

Do they.

To be continued ....

Senator Lugar on Iraq - "An awesome problem"

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, considered the new report written by David M. Walker, comptroller general of the United States, by the Government Accountability office on the performance of the Iraqi Government. It shows that virtually no political progress by the Iraqi government as the latest evidence that the president’s military strategy was failing.

It found that 3 of 18 benchmarks set by Congress had been met and 4 others have been "partly met" - whatever the fuck that means.

"Have you washed your hands, Johnny" ?

"WEll I've washed ONE of them" ...

It was written by David M. Walker, comptroller general of the United States, who testified at the hearing.

“Do Iraqis want to be Iraqis?” the shrewd Indiana Republican ranking member Mr. Lugar asked. “Is there a sense of those 25 million people that they want to be one nation, as opposed to some Iraqis wanting to dominate the whole lot?” He added, “If the answer to that question is that, fundamentally, Iraqis have not come to the conclusion they want to be Iraqis, then we have an awesome problem.” (See NYT)

Now if they are so dumb that they cannot answer that question , they are dumb enough to be confounded what to do next ... and as for the oil laws ... forget it.

No doubt there is a nice build up of Turkish forces just North of the Iraqi border.

Cold wars suddenly got colder - Official

Mobile Topol-M ballistic missile
Lord Patel met Senator Richard Lugar , Chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations committe at Purdue this summer, whilst his immediate interest was to boondoggle for his home state Indiana's share of ethanol subsidies he made some trenchant remarks about energy security in the modern world.

He is a tough, shrewd, worldly wise politician who is now bowing out from centre stage. Following his summertime remarks in Purdue, he made a chracteristically blunt (but unremarked ) speech at the Marshall Fund conference in Riga, in Latvia in advance of the NATO summit. In the light of Turkmenbashis's death it is worth considering. Full text at US Embassy

NATO he points out is bigger, it is busier than ever. That is not a guarantee however of security in a global world - when NATO was originally forged to deal with the defence of Europe from the Warsaw Pact countries. He dwelt at some length on the role of NATO in Afghanistan ...

"Although the hunt for al-Qaeda terrorists continues, the primary threat to the stability of Afghanistan is Taliban insurgents who are challenging ISAF in greater numbers, sowing dissent among Afghanis, cooperating with the bourgeoning narcotics trade, and complicating security efforts in ways that inhibit the rule of law and reconstruction."

He pointed out that whatever the political will, action was dependent upon expenditure ..

"To overcome these challenges and similar ones, we must reverse the downward spiral of defense budgets. Only a handful of members spend more than 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. Good intentions can only carry a military force so far ..."

He pointed out what many in the US see as the foot dragging of NATO nations ..

"It is imperative that NATO fulfills its commitments to Afghanistan. The Alliance has found it difficult to generate the political will to meet NATO objectives.....Unfortunately, NATO capitals are making the military mission even more difficult by placing national caveats on the use of their forces. These restrictions, coupled with troop shortages, are making ISAF a less cohesive and capable force."

He moved on and marked the " Centrality of Energy" to the NATO mission, to prevent wars and not fight them. He then outlined a key problem which a less than united Europe should consider..

" In the coming decades, the most likely source of armed conflict in the European theater and the surrounding regions will be energy scarcity and manipulation. It would be irresponsible for NATO to decline involvement in energy security, when it is abundantly apparent that the jobs, health, and security of our modern economies and societies depend on the sufficiency and timely availability of diverse energy resources."

" .... our experiences provide little reason to be confident that market rationality will be the governing force behind energy policy and transactions."

He then highlighted that we live in a much changed .. and rapidly changing world of energy flows.

"As recently as four years ago, spare production capacity exceeded world oil consumption by about ten percent. As world demand for oil has rapidly increased in the last few years, spare capacity has declined to two percent or less. Thus, even minor disruptions of oil supply can drive up prices."

He continued, to describe what he was to call geo-strategic blackmail.

"We are used to thinking in terms of conventional warfare between nations, but energy could become the weapon of choice for those who possess it. It may seem to be a less lethal weapon than military force, but a natural gas shutdown to a European country in the middle of winter could cause death and economic loss on the scale of a military attack."

he then warmed to the core of his concerns, which affects NATO and their allies.

"We must move now to address our energy vulnerability. "

"Article Five of the NATO Charter identifies an attack on one member as an attack on all.....We should recognize that there is little ultimate difference between a member being forced to submit to foreign coercion because of an energy cutoff and a member facing a military blockade or other military demonstration on its borders."

Addressing the concerns about Rusia he called for dialogue ..

"I believe that Russia has a long-term interest in achieving a more prosperous stability that comes with greater investment in its energy sector and the development of a reputation as a trusted supplier. But its recent actions to temporarily reduce gas supplies to the West, confiscate some foreign energy investments, and create further barriers to new investment are undermining confidence in Moscow’s reliability. "

Remember ....this was before Gazprom successfully strong armed Shell over Sakhalin and Tblisi gave in on a new price for gas from next week.

He concluded ..

"I understand that adopting energy security as a mission is a major advancement from NATO’s origins. But it represents an historic opportunity to change the circumstances of geopolitics to the benefit of all members".

Meanwhile the first regiment of Topol-M mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) went on active duty in the Ivanovo region in central Russia this month and received a visit from President Vladimir Putin on 14 December 2006. He called the deployment a "significant step forward in improving our defense capabilities".(see exclusive pic)

"Maintaining a strategic balance will mean that our strategic deterrent forces should be able to guarantee the neutralization of any potential aggressor, no matter what modern weapon systems he possesses," Putin said.

The state-of-the-art mobile Topol-M ballistic missile, with a liftoff weight of 47.2 tonnes, a range of more than 10,000 kilometers and capability of carrying a 1,200-kilogram warhead, which is immune to electromagnetic impulses is a valuable reminder of the uncreasingly tough competition between the great powers for unimpeded access to raw materials, including energy resources.

On 15 December 2006 Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander or Russia's Strategic Missile Forces,said "We will begin to equip the Topol-M mobile missile system with multiple re-entry vehicles in a few years."


Ukraine's Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych had a visitor to discuss gas supplies for winter this week. President Putin.

Bio fuels / Coal liquids - an important meeting

An important meeting scheduled for August 29, when the Richard G. Lugar-Purdue Summit on Energy Security will be held on on Purdue's campus in West Lafayette, Indiana. This will " focus on prospects for other sources of liquid fuels" a matter of great interest and importance to the corn growers of the mid -west and the car drivers of the US.

National leaders from government, business, academia, and various energy-related fields will participate in the invitation-only event, which will cover national security and economic policies, biomass and coal-based fuels, and suggest business and government strategies.

The Agenda is available here and includes

Talks by Indiana Governer Mitch Daniels, Senator Luger, Bob Malone Chairman of BP America (BP PLC is effectively a US company).

The afternoon technical discusions look extremely interesting

Bio-fuels and Coal Liquids
Moderator: Otto Doering, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

Barriers and Opportunities Relating to Production of Coal Liquids and Environmental Issues
Ari Geertsema, Professor
Center for Applied Energy Research, University of Kentucky

An Apollo Program for Biomass Liquids
Michael Ladisch, Distinguished Professor of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University

Agronomic/Economic Issues Related to Bio-energy Sustainability
Daniel De La Torre Ugarte, Associate Director
Agricultural Policy Analysis Center, University of Tennessee

Alternative Policy Mechanisms for Stimulating Bio-fuels and Coal Liquids Production
Wallace Tyner, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

Contact
Joseph Bennett
Vice President of University Relations
Purdue University
(765) 494-2082
jlbennett@purdue.edu