Human Rights Watch - report on Afghanistan Aerial Bombing to kill civilians and children - Handle with Care

Human Rights Watch have produced and publisheed a report on aerial bombing in Afghanistan , which their Press release headlines - Afghanistan: Civilian Deaths From Airstrikes on the Rise - Airstrikes Cause Public Backlash, Undermine Protection Efforts

The 43-page report, “‘Troops in Contact’: Airstrikes and Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan,” analyzes the use of airstrikes by US and NATO forces and resulting civilian casualties, particularly when used to make up for the lack of ground troops and during emergency situations.


This report ( Cover design by Rafael Jimenez ) is based on research conducted by Michael Shaikh (whose role in reporting the death of Rachael Corrie is rather questionable) and Marc Garlasco, and was written by Marc Garlasco, senior military analyst for the Emergencies Program at Human Rights Watch. Readers will remember how accurate Mr Garlasco has been in examining cluster bombs in Georgia - i.e he got it completely fucking wrong. See Moon of Alabama here and links and post Friday, September 05, 2008 HRW report Cluster bomb use was right - they were used - but by the Georgians not the Russians and they were M85's of Israeli manufacture

There is a however a fancy database which is accessible and to some extent interactive which the user can examine aistrikes by location , tonnage and number. Presumably these figures rely entirely upon the US / NATO forces so great care should be taken in accepting them as accurate or even truthful. We have already pointed out that US Air Power summaries ceased on August 10th.It is of course impossible to check how accurate they were.

It is claimed in the report that planned attacks are very accurate and minimise civilian deaths - pp 33 et seq

Planned attacks allow the US and NATO to use civilian risk mitigation procedures,including formal risk estimates to model and minimize civilian casualties

.....but

"US and NATO forces have been far more likely to cause civilian casualties in unplanned situations, normally when ground troops call in airstrikes as tactical support when under attack from insurgent forces, or to target insurgent forces on the move. The vast majority of known civilian deaths and injuries from airstrikes in Afghanistan come in these situations."

"civilian deaths from US and NATO airstrikes nearly tripled from 2006 to 2007 (from 116 to 321)"pp17.

"So far in 2008 there has been a return of high civilian deaths from airstrikes. This year (2008) at least 173 Afghan civilians have been killed in NATO and US operations. Of these, 119 died during US airstrikes, and 54 from fighting on the ground." pp18

"In close-quarter firefights where friendly soldiers could be wounded if bombs are used, cannon fire and missiles are often the preferred alternative." (Bruce Rolfsen, 'Afghanistan hit by record number of bombs,' Air Force Times, July 18th 2008,

However one views the HRW, this report provides some information which certainly supports the experience that both aerial boming is accelerating and civilian deaths are a major concern - but not to the US forces it seems. The most recent in Azizabad , Herat province 2 weeks ago that has a death toll mounting from 76 to over 90. This was a "planned" airstrike...apparently. Alastair Leithead of the the BBC reported on a previous wedding interrupted by 50 plus guests killed at Nangarhar.

HRW's last report in April - The Human Cost The Consequences of Insurgent Attacks in Afghanistan was designed to show that Insurgents were killing civilians by their policy of bombing and suicide bombing ...it concluded..

"All parties to the current conflict in Afghanistan—government, international forces, and insurgents—have the duty to protect civilians from the effects of the armed conflict. This report details the costs of insurgents’ failure to meet that obligation."

Photographs such as the above were used to identify the harm caused .. something missing from this report.

See Some Matter More for a detailed and eloquent and angry response to media reporting of killing people by dropping bombs on them.When 47 victims are worth 43 words

Meanwhile STOP PRESS - ISLAMABAD: Fourteen people, including three women, were killed and 20 others injured in missile strikes by suspected unmanned US drones on a seminary Tanda Darpakhel, 2 kms from Miranshah, the headquarters of North Waziristan which may have killed alleged Taliban Commander Jalaluddin Haqqani in North Waziristan tribal region on Monday..... six to seven missiles hit the seminary and nearby houses in the region ..... officials maintained that those killed were civilians, including women and children Haqqani and his sone Suraj are vetereans of the struggle against the Soviets but are said to hev been plotting to kill President Karzai.

Just what is their common purpose ?

This letter addressed "Dear Peter" to Peter Wilson, Chief Constable of Fife, dated 21st March 2008 from, Common Purpose Mid Scotland, c/o University of Stirling, Airthry Castle, FK9 4LA makes fascinating reading . It is from the stop common purpose web site.

Essentially it tells Peter Wilson ..."Dear Peter", that as a member of the local Advisory Group, he is there in his private capacity, not as a representative of an organisation, and is therefore not obliged to provide information requested by a Freedom of Information request ...of which, " the number of such requests has increased considerably..."

Apart from the fact that there are many people anxious to discover as much as they can about this organisation, one wonders why, if Peter Wilson ..."Dear Peter" only represents himself they write to him as Chief Constable at work and not at his home?

Fascinating stuff.... read on This is a website where people who have been on course explain how they enjoyed / befefited etc., fairly smug bunch.

We're doomd ! We're all Doomed !! Doomed....

Osama bin Laden's al-Qa'eda terror group, whose terrorist infrastructure is based in the province of Waziristan in northwest Pakistan, is known to be trying to acquire nuclear technology to use in terror attacks against the West. D.Tel today


Shit! ..and I was going to put the washing out to dry if this rain held off for a bit.

Renewable Energy Foundation ... starts shouting at Gordon Brown

Campbell Dunford, a former international energy banker, now Chief Executive of the Renewable Energy Foundation has evidently had it up to here with politicians.

In a press release after our wonderful Prime Minister was speaking only a few hours after National Grid issued a “Notification of Inadequate System Margin”,and talking of “reducing our dependence on oil, and by creating a low carbon economy achieving both greater security of energy supply and greater efficiency of energy use” he says ....UK POLITICAL CLASSES OUT OF TOUCH WITH ELECTRICITY CRISIS ....poorly designed emissions legislation and renewables support policies are in fact to blame for distorting the UK electricity sector, eroding system margins, and discouraging investment in any reliable capacity except gas , the international availability of which is now in question and over which he is now expressing such concern.... catastrophically wasteful and counterproductive Renewables Obligation which costs the UK economy a billion pounds a year but delivers little or no reliable electricity.

He highlights ...The UK will be importing 50% of its gas by 2010, and 80% by 2020.
UK He points out that the UK is now in the early stages of intense competition with the major Asian economies for supplies of Liquefied Natural Gas, and is not winning; the Isle of Grain received no commercial cargoes in the first six months of this year due to high prices in Japan.

Sentiments long expressed here at the Forthcoming UK Energy Deficit ... reda more of what he has to say here.... and take a agood hard look at an excellent site.

GeoEye-1 successfully launched - now even spookier pics available

One of of the many archived posts which gets visited almost every day is one of Thursday, April 20, 2006 which has links to images from the IKONOS satellite launched on September 24, 1999 from Space Launch Complex 6 (SLC-6) at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California This has a polar, circular, sun-synchronous 681-km orbit and both sensors have a swath width of 11 km. Its weight is 1600 pounds (720 kg).

The sample images London Millenium Dome and London Millenium Dome and Ghardaia, Algeria never seem to lose their fascination to visitors - and well worth a look - these are taken from 681 Km above the Earth.

We mentioned the successor GeoEye-1, which will have a ground resolution of .41-meter panchromatic (IKONOS = 1 m) and 1.65-meter multispectral (IKONOS = 4 m) and was due to be launched in early 2007. Due to U.S. licensing restrictions, commercial customers (Google are signed up on an exclusive deal for Google Earth) will get access to imagery at half-meter ground resolution.

Well yesterday the 4310-pound GeoEye-1 which was as built by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems in Gilbert, Ariz. with an imaging system built by ITT in Rochester, NY threw off the sullenbonds of earth on top of a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California 11:50 a.m. PDT .

GeoEye's ground station in Norway relayed the downlink signal it received from GeoEye-1 to the HQ in Virginia confirming that the satellite successfully separated from the second stage of the launch vehicle and began automatically initializing its onboard systems.

Bill Schuster, GeoEye chief operating officer, said, "Based upon the data we saw, the satellite is performing properly and ready to begin the next phase towards meeting its mission requirements." GeoEye-1 will now undergo a calibration and check-out period before imagery products will be available for sale.

Matthew O'Connell, GeoEye chief executive officer, said, "Later this fall, we will start providing high-resolution color imagery of the Earth from our newest satellite to customers around the globe. " ... which will include providing information to check up on EU farmers claims for subsidy.

Here is an image of the Birds Nest Peking Olympic Stadium and Swimming Arena from IKONOS. Rangoon before and after cyclone damage and Washington DC

This for example is an image of Hanslope Park

Hanslope Park, Bucks. FCO spook Palace expands in £320 MN facelift

Her Majesty's Government Communications Centre (HMGCC) This absorbs 80% of the Hanslope Park estate and also is home to MI6's Technical Security Department (TSD), staffed by SIS operatives who process and analyse data sent from GCHQ in Cheltenham and Menwith Hill in North Yorkshire, especially data intercepted from the foreign embassies in London.

I am a Mond - Shards of Glass has a fascinating insight into being interviewed for a job here ...

The site was large and was surrounded by lots of high, barbed fences. There was even inner "walls" (like a castle but with fences, if you know what I mean? Yes? No? N/A?). I first went to the reception to get signed in (they checked the letter in invitated Ii received and my passport), then onto the gatehouse of the main building to get my visitors pass and hand in my mobile fone and digital camera. According to the sign this was a "sterile area" :O. Through some more security doors in the main building I was greeted by Vicki who gave me a introduction, what to expect, etc. A sign said that the "Security Level" was "Black" - just so you know.

The interview took place in a room which you could only reach by going back out the main building. It was conducted by a engineer guy who asked some technical questions and a recruitment lady who asked, surprisingly, HR-type questions on teamwork, why I applied, what my interests are, etc. The technical questions varied from electronic ones like design an XOR gate using NANDs and aliasing due to oversampling to software ones like what languages I was comfortable with. Nothing very difficult.

So I thought it went well! I got a letter in this morning saying that I got thought to the final interview panel stage so that's good news! :D

Acceptance is conditional upon security clearance and a vetting procedure, which can take between 4 and 15 weeks!! :O They need five references, check everything to do with my background, drug test and how much alcohol I consume (hopefully by not checking my anus as my dad insists but by checking my hair as Iain suggests).

No Air Power summaries but Iraqi and Afghan bombing continues.

It is now clear that without any explanation or announcement the daily Air Power summaries which the Air Force Link have provided daily for years have been discontinued.This was our last report on them ..Tuesday, August 12, 2008 Bombing civlians from the air is addictive ... once you start you can't stop

Of course many of them have been taken over by the UAV's ...Wednesday, July 09, 2008 Afghanistan - Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drops bomb on enemy - State of Hearts and Minds on Ground unknown

MOD make extravagent claims for Mantis - which BAE are selling them "off plan"

At Farnborough air show in June ,BAE systems unveiled a full-scale model of an UAV,and also revealed initial details of project Mantis, a UAV on which development began late last year under an advanced concept technology demonstrator (ACTD) contract with partners Rolls-Royce, QinetiQ, Selex Galileo, GE Aviation and Meggitt. The first flight was said to be (very ambitioulsy) scheduled for early 2009.

The T tailed Mantis is designed to be able to carry GBU-12 laser-guided bombs and Brimstone missiles on six weapon pylons.The Mantis features twin-props, a multi-sensor turret and radar under its fuselage, and a satcom antenna in the upper nose section and will use a triplex flight control system. The wings are made at BAE Brough now they have nothing left to make with the Hawk having migrated to India and the airfame is made by Lola who mae F1 cars.

The mock up shown at Farnborough deployed 4 Raytheon Paveway IV dual mode guided-bombs and six Brimstone missiles on two three-round launchers.

Air Vice-Marshal Simon Bollom, the Defense Ministry's director general, combat air, said at the time that the Mantis is "the type of platform with which we can experiment".

A few days later Flight was able to announce that, " the MOD may deploy to Afghanistan its BAE System's Mantis advanced concept technology demonstrator unmanned air vehicle as part of Mantis's second development phase, or spiral. "

How every odd then, that the Sunday Mail reports , under the headline " RAF show off 'killer' drone aircraft which will help protect major dam in Afghanistan" which a "Daily Mail reporter" reports "The RAF has unveiled its latest weapon in the fight to protect the crucial Kajaki dam in southern Afghanistan. The unmanned Mantis killer ‘drone’ aircraft will guard supply pylons in the area where last week British troops carried out a daring mission to install a 200-ton turbine."

Excited observers look forward to seeing this wonderful aircraft fly before it is packed off to Afghanistan to replace the £10 Mn a throw Israeli Hermes UAV's - one of which has already crashed.

Costs of the project shared 50.50 with the contractors and the MOD have not been revealed. Nor how they will take this to operational capability froma mock up at Farnborough in June to 24 hour patrolling the skies over Afghanistan.

Andrew Chuter in Defense News reporting from Farnborough had however raised a note of caution ..."The reticence by the two sides to reveal program costs leads to the suspicion that the amount of cash involved in the program at this stage is small, and the cash-strapped MoD is providing only a small portion of the funding.

Industry sources estimated the investment in the tens of millions of pounds, significantly less than the £124 million being jointly invested by industry and government in the stealthy, jet-powered Taranis unmanned air vehicle technology demonstrator launched in 2006 by now you see him, now you don't race car driving ,by the then-defense procurement minister, Lord Drayson.

Many of the leading players in Mantis are also playing a role in Taranis. That airframe is in assembly.

Air Vice Marshal Bollom with his head firmly in the clouds said the program also was aimed at demonstrating the rapid prototyping capabilities of British industry in the UAV sector.

"Rapid development programs such as Mantis will provide indicators of how we can improve the acquisition process to deliver capability swiftly into fast-changing military environments," Bollom said.

Several of BAE's earlier privately funded demonstrator programs, like Corax /Raven, (It was given 2 synonymns Corax is the Latin generic name for the ravens and crows - perhaps to confuse the Russkis we had 2 diferent models) were developed using rapid prototyping apparently says the MOD. Those not convinced might like to re-read the birthday post of Lord Patel on Wednesday, January 25, 2006 Overmanned BAE produce Unmanned useless UAV out of date, obsolete UAV with catchy name. The Corax (see BBC report) first flew in 2004. Nothing has been heard of it since.

UPDATE : If this flies over Aldershot never mind Afghanistan we will collectively show our arse in Woorlworth's window.

Glory to Stalin, the Great Architect of Communism!

UK National Grid is running near capcity

The National Grid has to balance the load (demand) with supply - this is a complex balancing act which, whilst it relies on computational power does involve human oversight.

The Operating Margin is the Level of available Megawatts (MWs) above those required to meet forecas demand. The National Grid maintains an Operating margin which they design and trust will ensure security of supply and minimise the costs of balancing. (Learn more here) Costs may go from the average £40 KwHr to £300KwHr

An insufficient Operating Margin will trigger the issue of a Notice of Inadequate System Margin (NISM) warning - this alerts and requires suppliers to the national Grid to review and report availability.


This is an infrequent and unwelcome event because it drives up costs and can in fact lead to the need to close down supplies at short notice - blackout.

Therefore when Reuters reported on September 4th that the UK power supply cushion for Thursday evening looks too tight and another 700 megawatts of generation capacity is needed, they had been alerted by accessing the NISM reports which you can access here.

This was the one referred to by Reuters.

2008-09-04 11:01 From : Power System Manager - National Grid Electricity Control Centre NOTIFICATION OF INADEQUATE SYSTEM MARGIN For the period: from 11:00 hrs to 20:30 hrs on Thursday 04/09/2008 There is insufficient System Margin System margin shortfall 400 MW Maximum Generation Service may be instructed. Trading Points, Control Points and Externally interconnected System Operators are requested to notify National Grid of any additional MW capacity. Suppliers please advise National Grid of any additional Demand Control available The situation will be reviewed again by National Grid at 16:00 hours and an update issued. This Notification of Issue of a GB Transmission System Warning - Inadequate System Margin Notification Issued at 12:00 hrs on 04/09/2008 Issued by Clive Coles National Grid Electricity Control Centre

The immedate problems were caused by shutdowns and a loss of power because of breakdowns over the past two days. Some of the plants that experienced problems included British Energy’s Eggborough power station, Drax and E.ON’s Kingsnorth and Killinghome stations. Times

Expect more this winter. When it really gets cold.

Go to Oil Drum for a discussion on the current and near term position and more wisdom from Chris Vernon who brought our attention to the above.

A service brought to you by The Forth Coming UK Energy Deficit (FCUKED) 2001 org.

UK NHS national policy on circumcision - rite or wrong ?

4 More News last night had a fascinating piece about male circumcision in the UK .NHS Direct (in page Last updated on 27 November 2007 ) says "In the UK, circumcision is only carried out on the NHS in cases where it is medically necessary. It is usually performed as a last resort when other types of treatment have been unsuccessful." Some fascinating pictures of the whole process here.

The policy is extremely clear ..."In England, ritual circumcisions are not carried out by the NHS. Primary Care Trusts (PCT) only perform circumcisions for medical reasons, as recommended by The British Medical Association (BMA).(There is no discussion on NHS Direct on female circumcision)

Which is clear enough .. quite where when and how this universal policy was established is a little unlcear - in the 40's and 50's circumcision of boys ran at about 30%. It is now recognised as medically unecessary - unlike for example in the US where male circumcision is prevalent.

In March 2007 the Center for Disease Control and Prevention stated that a National Health and Social Life Survey in 1992 revealed that 77% of men reported being circumcised including 81% of white men, 65% of black men, and 54% of Hispanic men. Since 1999, 16 states have eliminated Medicaid payments for circumcisions that were not deemed medically necessary. In 2006, two states—Hawaii and Vermont—introduced resolutions questioning the need for public funding of male circumcision. More here and here and the CDC have a current fact sheet here including discussion on HIV transmission in vaginal sex by circumcised / non-circumcised men.

Since 1975, the American Academy of Pediatrics' position on circumcision is that "there is no absolute medical indication for routine circumcision of the newborn." a position now supported the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists. Many groups both in the US and the UK regard the operation as a form of sexual assault on children.

4 More News has however discovered however that some Health Trust in areas with high levels of Muslims in the local population are now providing circumcisions free where it was undertaken simply for religious or "cultural" reasons.

The reasons and authority for the local change in a national policy are unclear, but the practice is defended ( and was defended by an embarassed NHS manager on the program) , as the refusal to perform the operation without requiring payment, would lead to "back street" circumcisions which might result in injury, disease and complications requiring orthodox medical treatment and NHS intervention .

We have just unearthed the bizarre finding (More Clostridium difficile deaths and infections in Northern Ireland but outbreak over (?) )that there is no national UK policy on rules for hospital visitors .Despite 8 years spent focussing on Hospital Acquired Infections, which unlike the choice for circumcision YES/NO ,is actually killing some 20,000 people a year. Every year.

Perhaps 4MoreNews ,this might have a slightly higher priority for further investigation.

Lambeth Palace will feature the SIOE Street Theatre on Thursday

Well PC Plod will be busy on the anniversary of 9/11 on Thursday - Go to London Calling for full details, but SIOE are promising trouble with a demonstration starting at Lambeth Palace at 18.00 hrs . This kick off point was chosen because of what they call the Archbishop of Canterbury’s unwise comments on Sharia Law.

SIOE opposes Sharia law at any level existing in English law and any national sovereign law in Europe.

SIOE organiser Stephen Gash is quoted saying, “Rational people all over Europe believe in democracy, not theocracy. In a working democracy legislation may be enacted and repealed according to circumstances prevailing at the time. Muslims believe that Sharia law is the unassailable word of their deity Allah and is unchangeable. The vast majority of Europeans consider the stoning to death of a woman for being raped and beheading a person for leaving Islam to be barbaric punishments. Those punishments represent the thick end of the wedge. The thin end of the wedge is, for example, uniquely allowing Muslim men multiple welfare benefits for multiple wives as happens in the United Kingdom and other European countries.” Which may explain these leaflets picked up today ..Stand for Islam"Hizb ut-Tahir has launched a UK wide campaign aimed at confronting the on-going media and political onslaught gainst Islam." ... " Former British PM Tony Blair once infamously presented the war on terror as a counter to an "evil ideology" that he said included calling for the Caliphate and Shariah." www.hizb.org.uk
There seems to be a Danish connection with a website Stop Islamiseringen af Danmark which has evidently moderate views ..

It should be clear to everyone that Islam is a racist religion which does not tolerate dissidents and other religions, and is fighting democracy in every way. Islam is working through fear and terror, just like their NAZI allies. Yes, it is not so well-known to many people, but the Middle Eastern Islamists, especially those in Palestine, had a very close collaboration with Hitler and Nazi Germany both before and during World War Two.

We always get nervous here when people use the Argument of the Wedge (Thin end of) .. something usually associated with Unripe Time. The other observation is that it is curious that people take all the trouble to uproot themselves, settle down here, find they don't like the way we live and then want to change the law and the way we live our lives.

Paris Macho ! UPDATE 2 : Sarkozy impregnates both Carla Bruni and Mistress Rachida Dati

Yes! Runty little President Sarkozy (who stands in/on the bed to kiss his wife) has made his beautiful young (?) wife Carla Bruni pregnant.

Fifty year old Cecilia, his second wife and mother of his 11 year old son, Louis called us last night.."I didn't know she had it in her", she sobbed rather bitterly.

A true Parisian , Cecilia Maria Sara Isabel Ciganer-Albeniz was first married at the age of 27 to the 51-year old children's TV presenter Jacques Martin at the town hall of the chic Paris suburb of Neuilly in 1984. The mayor was Nicolas Sarkozy, then 2 years older than her.

Cecilia suggests that this explains Carla's absence in public since the trip to Windsor - did the entente cordiale go to their heads ?


Saturday, October 06, 2007 Get to work on an egg

PS : Update he's made his mistress 42 year old Rachida Dati pregnant as well according to the news Daily Mail @ 1.37 pm . see Monday, October 22, 2007 Rachida Dati seen by a billion on TV with President ... or did we misunderstand Cecilia ?

See also Monday, November 12, 2007 President Sarkozy's Harem hits Washington

...and Rama Yade ?

Beware God's cleared up the Sun's spots - super cool period ahead ?

Sunspot data has been collected since 1749. Now the job is handled by Mount Wilson Observatory, which is part of UCLA - this pic was taken minutes ago.

Sunspot activity on the face of the sun that we can see is cyclical - we are now at the start of Solar Cycle 24 . It is uncommon / rare for no sunspots to be visible but in the whole of August 2008 not a single sunspot has been recorded (last such even June 1913) - this follows 7 months when the average sunspot number has been 3. (NOAA claim a "half/spot" has been seen in August - Mount Wilson disagree.) Also check out monthly report from Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre SIDA part of Royal Belgian Observatory

The 11-year sunspot cycle is not built symmetrically. The ascending part from minimum to maximum is shorter than the declining part from maximum to minimum.

This apparent lack of solar activity has caught astronomers on the hop. However 2 authors based at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson AZ. proposed, in a paper in 2005 , eventually refused publication in the respected journal Science ,that from observed minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes they could reasonably extrapolate that within 10 years sunspots would vanish completely.

In the past millenium there have been 3 such "Maunder Minimum" events Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age".

Whilst agriculture evidently needs heat for crop growth, cooling produces shorter growing seasons , crop yields drop accelerated by autumn frosts.

Therefore the gloomy summers experienced in the last few years in the UK may be explained by the sun's dynamo slowing down . Anthony Watts a meteorologist explains that the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.

Clouds have a hundred times stronger effect on weather and climate than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. H. E. Landsberg has shown that if the atmosphere’s carbon dioxide content doubled, its effect would be cancelled out if the cloud cover expanded by 1%. (Landsberg, H. E.: Man-made climatic changes. In: Proceedings of the symposium on physical and dynamic climatology of the World Meteorological Organization 347 (1974), 262.)

It seems remarkable but the study of clouds, and their origins is imperfectly understood. Physicist Henrik Svensmark, claims to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth.he says this is a more significant factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.

Briefly , when the solar wind is strong and cosmic rays are weak, the global cloud cover shrinks. It extends when cosmic rays are strong because the solar wind is weak. This effect, attributed to cloud seeding by ionized secondary particles, causes a change in cloud cover by more than 3 % within 3 ½ years.

Ilya Usoskin is a solar physicist at the University of Oulu, Finland, says the equation "more rays equals more clouds" is a simplification and points out the effects are not global but are more important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate.

J. E. Hansen who is a renowned cheer leader and protagonist of global warming said in 1998 (Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Lacis, A., Ruedy, R., Tegen, I., and Matthews, E.: Climate forcings in the industrial era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95 (1998), 12753-12758:

"The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change ... The natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparisons with general circulation models alone."

Nigel Calder pointed out in the Times Feb 11th 2007 The best measurements of global air temperatures come from American weather satellites, and they show wobbles but no overall change since 1999. The silence of the IPCC lobby remains silent on this unpersuasive and inconvenient Truth.

This was immediately prior to his publication of, "The Chilling Stars: The New Theory of Climate Change " by Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder Amazon billed as "Nigel Calder has provided a very readable explanation of how solar activity affects climate change"

Calder attacks the agreed and current consensus on the role of anthropogenic greenhous gases. Of course non scientific , non peer reviewed souls must not upset the IPCC whose real reason is to increase the size and scope of government, and centralizing power. You notice the alarmism, and their call for "something to be done about it," meaning for individuals to give up freedom and conveniences and for government to increase taxes and regulation. We posted about this Friday, March 09, 2007 The climate on the climate change crisis is changing

But thats's another story ... Meanwhile lets just have a look at the sun - naked.

PS SOHO sun images here SIDA sunspot cycles here as Gemma says, to make them bigger simply click on them.

Molybdenum shortages cause immediate and nearby shortages / crises / concerns / worries worldwide especially for medical imaging

Molybdenum is not a mineral that hits the headlines but there are two reasons why there is concern over the metal.

By "roasting" molybdenum, producers refine raw minerals into a marketable powder or pellet, and current world capacity is about 320 million pounds per year, just sufficient to meet current world demand.

Global demand is expected to grow at 3% in the West but CIS and China (and maybe India) expect to use 10% more. This is due to ;

1. Hydroprocessing catalysts are becoming essential for crude oil.
2. Increase in nuclear reactor construction. There are known 48 nuclear reactors to be built by 2013 (not including the UK 's alleged 6) , and approximately 100 are to be built by 2020.

Reactors contain mountains of very high specification Stainlesss Steel - short falls are expected starting like ...er .. now. On September 4th The London Metal Exchange announced they will start trading cobalt and molybdenum futures next year. Prices have averaged US$30 per pound for the last 3 years but have recently edged up to US$33 a pound.

Mr Jonathan George CEO of Creston said that "Molybdenum is trading at around USD 33.85 per pound but we see it moving up into the USD 40 per pound range in 2009 because there is a stranglehold on molybdenum supply."

Medical Imaging facing immediate shortage and/or crisis

On top of this an unexpected crisis (being much downplayed) has hit nuclear medicine. Molybdenum 99 is the parent of technetium and has a half life of some 66 hours so cannot be stockpiled. This is used as a target in body imaging - injected into patients - especially for cancers, Alzheimers and Parkinson's disease.

Reactors shutdown

There are 5 reactors that can produce the stuff worldwide and last week the High Flux Reactor facility at Petten in the Netherlands went down. A spokesman for the unit's operator, NRG, said an anomaly was spotted during the inspection at the end of August's operational run, and operation in September was cancelled for checks to take place.

The other four were on scheduled shutdowns . The BR-2 reactor at the Institut des Radioelements at the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre near Charleroi (50 Km south of Brussels) is shut down for refuelling - although there has been a problem locally with the release of an Iodine isotope locally This has led to a oublic instruction not to consume local produce within a radius of 5 Km of the plant - since reduced to 3 Km. BBC PA AFP Forbes French-language Belgian newspaper Le Soir reported last Saturday that Belgian and French nuclear safety authorities had found security lapses at the lab in a joint audit in November 2007.

The Osiris unit at Saclay in France is also shut for refuelling. South Africa's Safari-1 unit has modified its operating schedule. Operator Necsa said on August 28th that Safari-1 is operating at its maximum 20 MW capacity, but it will be shut down for maintenance on 30 August. The shutdown has been put back by 12 hours, as has its restart on 4 September, to help manage tightness in isotope supply.

As a result says the Society for Nuclear Medicine (SNM), "there is a distinct possibility that worldwide production of Mo-99 could completely cease for a prolonged period, with devastating results".

"A combination of anticipated outages at other production reactors, coupled with unanticipated shutdowns, is simply devastating... Following the shutdown of Canada's Chalk River facility late last year, we simply cannot afford to sit and wait as the situation continues to worsen."

Isotopes such as Mo-99 are used in diagnostic techniques, where they are taken into the body by injection or ingestion and absorbed by certain body cells and tissues. Technicians can then track the cells' movement by the trace radioactivity the isotopes give off. The isotopes are seen as essential tools against various kinds of cancer, nervous diseases like Alzheimer's and Parkinson's and cardiac complaints.

The Chalk River plant in Canada - which supplies about half the world's medical isotope needs - was eventually reopened on government orders following safety disputes last year, but is currently undergoing a planned shutdown. It's expected to re-open this week, but reports indicate that there will still be shortages of supply due to the unexpected outage at Petten.

Paradoxically the US , due to concerns over terrorists obtaining radioactive isotopes does not produce any and is entirely dependent on imports. The High Flux Isotope Reactor (or HFIR) located at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is purely a research facility.

Threates of terrorism have as a consequence also slowed down new isotope production capacity.

"This is a serious problem," said Michael Graham, SNM President-Elect. "Now, more than ever, it is critical that the United States, along with other countries, take the lead on recommending alternatives to ensure consistent access to mission-critical isotopes, which are essential to hospitals and their ability to provide patient care.

"SNM has serious concerns about this most recent outage," said SNM President Robert W. Atcher, Ph.D., M.B.A. "A combination of anticipated outages at other production reactors, coupled with unanticipated shutdowns, is simply devastating. The impact on the patients who are in need of diagnostic tests using these radioisotopes is very serious. The United States and other countries are not prepared to adequately deal with the current situation - let alone anticipate other situations as they continue to arise. Following the shutdown of Canada's Chalk River facility late last year, we simply cannot afford to sit and wait as the situation continues to worsen," added the emerging medical technology team leader at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.

In a conversation in February 2008 Alexander McEwan, MD, president of the Society of Nuclear Medicine and director of oncologic imaging at the Cross Cancer Institute in Edmonton, Alberta, spokeabout last November's shutdown of a nuclear reactor in Chalk River, Ontario, and its subsequent impact on US hospitals and patients.

The United States gets its supply from two main manufacturers, Covidien and BMS (Bristol-Myers Squibb Medical Imaging). They receive it raw from the reactor from Chalk River, process it, and then it is sent to hospitals and radiopharmacies. It's a fairly complex supply chain. So if the reactor at the front of this chain breaks down, then you lose your supply of molybdenum and Technetium.

About 40% of hospitals were imaging at 50%. Because Covidien gets some of its supply from Europe, it was able to supply European molybdenum. Pharmacies that BMS supplied were the ones that were hit the hardest.

In the United States, there are about 19 million imaging facilities a year using molybdenum, so about a million and a half facilities use it per month. (in the US alone)

The Society of Nuclear Medicine has identified for 10 years that this is a problem. There is no US supplier of Technetium, and we as a society are working very hard to get a US reactor into supply. But obviously, that is expensive.

Suppliers of medical molybdenum 99 isotopes meet

Following the shutdowns of the isotope reactor HFR, Netherlands, and the IRE production site, Belgium, both providing Molybdenum (Mo99), the Association of Imaging and Production Equipment Suppliers ( AIPES )organized a meeting on September 3rd in Brussels, assembling all stakeholders, from reactor operators to physicians, represented through the EANM, to ensure isotope delivery and minimize patient discomfort.

Although the Canadian and South African reactors are maximizing their output and after evaluating all alternative solutions, there will still be a shortage in delivery of Tc99 in Europe for 4 to 6 weeks.

Technetium (Tc99), end product of the Mo99, is used for tumor detection, myocardial infarct evaluation, to investigate brain diseases and other pathologies.

The reduction in Tc99 delivery could be up to 30% and will likely be evenly spread across the European nuclear medicine centers.

AIPES and EANM are currently working on recommendations for the nuclear medicine physicians on replacement isotopes readily available for certain types of examinations, which would thus permit to lessen the impact of the shortage on patients.


Due to their sensitivity and specificity, radio-isotopes labeled molecules are used in nuclear medicine for:

1. Diagnostic imaging in oncology (smallest lesion detection), cardiology, neurology and many other types of pathologies.
2. Therapy with some type of cancers and pain relief.
3. As tracers for Molecular Healthcare applications and research in latest healthcare technologies.

Despite the efforts made to overcome this temporary shortage, a long term strategy to replace the very old isotope reactors needs to be implemented at EU level as amtter of urgency.

AIPES had already started an independent assessment of future isotope needs and required production capacity which will be presented to all stakeholders upon its completion in the coming months.

........... and what is the betting that the price of M099 canisters has gone up ? It hasnt hit the TV screens yet - but it will.

UPDATE :
Saturday am Independent "Global shortage of isotopes puts hundreds of cancer scans in doubt"..."Professor Alan Perkins, honorary secretary of the British Nuclear Medicine Society, said: "The expected number of people who will be affected is quite difficult to determine ... but we are certainly talking about hundreds. The procedures include cardiac blood-flow imaging, bone scanning for secondary tumours, lymph-node detection in breast cancer cases and renal function monitoring, which is commonly done in children"

With deadpan insousiance the spokesman for the Department of Health said: "Trusts will be working to ensure that patient care is not compromised. Urgent patients will continue to be prioritised [but] routine patients may need to wait a little longer until supply comes back online."

Scotsman - Cancer scan delay fears over isotope shortages

Telegraph - Patients 'facing scan delays because of radiation shortage'

PA - Hundreds facing scan delays - which is evidently the source of the above 3 stories and the other 147 Google produces.

Rentagob Gove on BBC's Newsnight's payroll

Michael Gove was on Newsnight again tonight. Kirsty Wart had him on the Review explaining how the sex scenes in BBC's "Tess" were unsastifactory.

What experience of sex can this runty, sweating little animal have other than self abuse?

What self respecting woman would want to be fucked by him ?

smart - e car for Berlin

Following the trials with e-cars in London last year, Daimler AG and German utility RWE AG based in Essen , have announced their joint "E-Mobility Berlin", which will start next year and should be fully operational by end 2009.

Daimler will provide 100 Mercedes Benz and Smart cars and RWE will cover he costs of the development, installation and operation of about 500 the electricity charging stations, the electricity, and central control / payment system. Chargers will be located at customers' homes, workplaces and in public parking areas.

Angela Merkel and German Transport Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee were at the launch press bullshit sessions to wonder at this feat of teutonic technology . Merkel called it "a truly groundbreaking project," for the capital, the auto industry and for utilities and for Germany.

New lithium-ion batteries developed specifically for use in the cars are being developed. These should provide greater range (100Km / 60 miles) short charging times, with smaller and lighter batteries.

The new battery will first be used in the Mercedes S 400 BlueHYBRID next year.

The integrated payment system will involve the exchange of data between a special in-car communication system and the intelligent electricity charging points for "effective, customer-friendly and convenient everyday operation", as easy as using a mobile phone.



It is useful to take stock of the forecasts made by Toyota in their third Sustainability Report 2008: Towards a New Future for People, Society, and the Planet says there are 800 to 900 million passenger vehicles in use globally. The number increases by 100 mn every 5 years and if this rate of growth continues there will be 1 billion vehicles in 2010 and 1.5 billion vehicles in 2020.UPDATE see here

Boeing machinists to start strike at midnight -

Boeing machinists will begin a strike at midnight after contract talks with a federal mediator failed. Boeing has been negotiating with the machinists union in a bid reach a contract deal and avert a costly strike.

"The strike is on," said Mark Blondin, national aerospace coordinator for the International Association of Machinists, speaking from Orlando, Fla., where talks between top union leaders and Boeing executives failed to reach agreement.

This is what Business Week was saying earlier....

When a stunning 87% of Boeing machinists voted on Sept. 3 to go on strike, second-guessers wondered whether these skilled plane builders had a few screws loose. After all, management was offering wage hikes that would top 11% over three years and bonuses of more than $5,000. Boeing was even offering to hike its traditional pension payments, rather than scrap them, as the company first proposed. "You guys are crazy!" wrote one reader on a BusinessWeek.com message board. "Those numbers are great. Most people would die to get those raises in the midst of an economic slowdown."

Apparently some were upset when their union leaders agreed to dealy striking for 2 days with management and a federal mediator to try to agree ona contract before Friday night, Sept. 5.(That's 7.00 am Sept 8th BST)

Up to 7,000 workers assembled in Everett, Wash. and wanted to vote down the delay and walk off the job there and then - yelling "sellout" when union leaders accepted the delay.

With an impressive backlog of orders for civil aircraft, a military dug to suck on, they feel that they should take a bigger share.

However any more delays on the 787 Dreamliner could send those profits down the tubes PDQ.

On top of that , increased fuel costs are shrinking fleets.

IAM district 751 president, Tom Wroblewski, who negotiated alongside Blondin issued a statement announcing the strike to the rank-and-file.

"If (Boeing) wants to talk, they have my number, they can reach me on the picket line," Wroblewski said.

Sarah Palin - the Funsters have been let loose

UK legal poppy production grows as Afghanis farmers feed worldwide illicit demand

We have long been a supporter of the Senlis Council (Friday, April 18, 2008 Senlis Council produce yet another despairing report on poppy cultivation, heroin production and trafficking in Afghanistan and here )who promote the idea of legitimising the growing of Afghanistan poppies for the commercial production of morphine - for which world demand is growing.

This picture illustrated a story in the Daily Mail and was wryly brought to our attention by the headline "The painkilling fields: England’s opium poppies that tackle the NHS morphine crisis" at Aftermath News . last June.

One wonders however how the crop this year has fared with the summer and wet autumn.

Apparently pharmaceutical company Macfarlan Smith ( a subsidiary of Johnson Matthey plc (JMAT:L) -"world leader in the production of alkaloid opiates and other controlled drugs."), one one of the world's oldest pharmaceutical companies, have a licence from the Home Office to harvest the poppies, which now bedeck fields across Oxfordshire, Northamptonshire and Lincolnshire. Who knows they may be feeding it directly into our prisons to maintain the obedience of inmates ?

Evidently they are doing a fine job and on 1st September 2008, Macfarlan Smith was officially granted ISO 14001 certification. Johnson Matthey plc shares had a nasty turn today closing down 8.5% (134p) at 1,441p.

HRW report Cluster bomb use was right - they were used - but by the Georgians not the Russians and they were M85's of Israeli manufacture

On the 16th August we posted Russia uses Cluster Bombs on civilian targets in Georgia which was based on a widely reported Human Rights watch report. A friend kindly pointed out what a bunch of lying fuckers they have been .. in fact they have an impressive track record. (of which more soon)

Now it turns out the bombs were M85 bombs of Israeli manufacture, and used by the Georgians. A letter from the Georgian Defence Ministry to HRW said the bombs were used "against Russian military equipment and armament" near the Roki tunnel that links Russia to South Ossetia. The Georgians have admitted using them. The original report was by a helpful chappie called Marc Garlasco, who moved over to Human Rights Watch after working 7 years at Pentagon. HRW has acknowledged cluster bomb use, but has not retracted their now baseless accusations against the Russians and still maintain the Russians used them. Tuesday, September 02, 2008 Clusterfuck on Blog Simple

One must admit that the Pentagon does take information management seriously. It'd be interesting to know how many other operatives are out planting propaganda, and using NGOs as fronts. Lots and lots, I bet.

Before coming to HRW, Marc Garlasco (see pic) spent seven years in the Pentagon as a senior intelligence analyst covering Iraq. His last position there was chief of high-value targeting during the Iraq War in 2003. Marc was on the Operation Desert Fox (Iraq) Battle Damage Assessment team in 1998, led a Pentagon Battle Damage Assessment team to Kosovo in 1999, and recommended thousands of aimpoints on hundreds of targets during operations in Iraq and Serbia. He also participated in over 50 interrogations as a subject matter expert. See him on CBS video accuse the Russians.(Warning includes interview with Alexander Stubb not suitable for children)

So the report was true when - Asked about reports of the use of cluster bombs, deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, told a news conference "We never use cluster bombs. There is no need to do so." Another report from RIA Novosti says he said,""We did not use cluster bombs, and what's more there was absolutely no necessity to do so."

We apologise for the misinformation but it helps to identify the way these lying bastards spread their fictionalised acounts.