Climate change - another perspective on the historical temperature record

Climate is the continuation of the oceans by other means
Arnd Bernaerts 1992 ***


Watts up with that blog has a first rate analysis by Bill Illis - Adjusting Temperatures for the ENSO and the AMO which he describes ....

" People have noted for a long time that the effect of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) should be accounted for and adjusted for in analyzing temperature trends. The same point has been raised for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ( not to be confused with not be confused with the North Atlantic Oscillation.) (AMO). Until now, there has not been a robust method of doing so.

This post will outline a simple least squares regression solution to adjusting monthly temperatures for the impact of the ENSO and AMO There is no smoothing of the data, no plugging of the data; this is a simple mathematical calculation."

Basically, a highly successful attempt to account for global temperature records after adjusting for the ocean oscillations ENSO and AMO. His statisticalanalysis which is lengthy and detailed, requires considerable efffort and knowledge to follow, but it clearly shows that after adjusting for the temperature variation caused by ocean oscillations, there is very little "climate change" signature left.

Al Fin who claims to float between North America and Afghanistan provides a perfect, clear and simple explanation of Illis's paper / essay.

The sun drives the ocean oscillations. Ocean oscillations plus water vapour/cloud effects then drive Earth's climate. CO2 has only a marginal effect. The Earth is currently undergoing a cooling phase.

A David L Hagen comments "Can the effects of the Urban Heat Island effect be quantitatively separated from CO2 forcing on temperature trends?" ... which highlights, if nothing else the paucity (or even non-existence) of study / research into another 20th century phenomenom, a further direct effect of burning fossil fuels which seems to have eluded the crazed IPCC bunch of scientists with a political agenda and hungry for research grants.

***
Capt. Dr. Arnd Bernaerts Postfach 730462 22124 Hamburg, Germany Phone: +49-40-67580714 E-Mail: arnd1939@yahoo.com

A trained seaman and a master mariner, he was a shipmaster before he became
a lawyer and a doctor of law in the 1970s, with a law office in Hamburg, and an international consultant since the 1980s. see here

Another bloody silly conspiracy theory

This story appeared on Finchannel.com just now ...

According to RIA Novosti, a leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.

Professor Igor Panarin (Doctor of political sciences, professor of the Diplomatic Academy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia.) said in an interview with the daily Izvestia published on Monday:

"The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said:

"It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said:

"Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said:

"A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." (Unless of course Sarah Palin, was armed and looking out the window at the time)

On the fate of the U.S. dollar, he said:

"In 2006 a secret agreement was reached between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. on a common Amero currency as a new monetary unit. This could signal preparations to replace the dollar. The one-hundred dollar bills that have flooded the world could be simply frozen. Under the pretext, let's say, that terrorists are forging them and they need to be checked."

When asked how Russia should react to his vision of the future, Panarin said: "Develop the ruble as a regional currency. Create a fully functioning oil exchange, trading in rubles... We must break the strings tying us to the financial Titanic, which in my view will soon sink."

David Belfield / Dawud Salahuddin / Hassan Abdulrahman /Hassan Tantai and the missing Bob Levinson in Iran - is October "surprise" on the way ?

It must have been a bit of a surprise on the afternoon of Friday 21st November when Sean McCormack, Spokesman for the State department started his Press briefing with a statement about the curious tale of ex FBI agent Robert Levinson . (see video here )

The United States continues to call on Iran to cooperate with U.S. authorities on the case of Robert Levinson, an American citizen who has been missing since disappearing from Iran’s Kish Island over nineteen months ago. The U.S. Department of State remains committed to determining Mr. Levinson’s whereabouts, and returning him safely to his family that includes seven children, one grandchild and a second grandchild on the way. The quicker members of the Press saw that this was of course in response to Senator Nelson's remarks on the 20th November to raise a Senate resolution about the mysterious disappearance of Bob Levinson, a businessman who vanished after checking out of his hotel on the resort island of Kish on March 9, 2007.

Bob is / was however no ordinary businesman and is/was an FBI agent who in his retirement was in some way involved in investigating cigarette smuggling. His signature appears in a resort log book, showing that he checked out. His passport has never turned up.

Florida Republican Senator (Bob lives in Coral Springs) also raised his case in the senate on November 20th . (Miami Herald) .

On September 5th Wapo reported that Levinson's trip to Kish island, an Iranian duty-free zone that does not require visas, wqas being investigate by Swiss diplomatic staff, anxious to find a duffle bag - but they had been refused access by the Iranian Governmnt.

Subsequently in December his wife Christine Levinson, accompanied by their 22 year old son, Daniel, visited Iran and met hotel staff and airport workers on Kish Island but obatined no further information.

Since then Iran continues to claim it has no information on the fate of Mr. Levinson and when his wife sought a meeting with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was at the United Nations for the U.N. General Assembly he declined to meet with her.

However CNN reported that Levinson met with a Dawud Salahuddin, who is a fugitive from American justice who now lives in Iran, shortly before his disappearance.

Salahuddin -- now known in Iran as Hassan Abdulrahman -- converted to Islam and was given refuge in Iran after admitting in interviews to killing Ali Akbar Tabatabai, a former Iranian diplomat under the Shah, in Maryland in 1980.

Salahuddin said Iranian officials in plain clothes detained him to examine his pasport and he was taken away from the room he shared with Levinson to be interrogated about his Iranian passport. He says he was told when he was freed the following day that Bob levinson had returned to Dubai.

Senior US administration officials have told CNN that they think Salahuddin met with Levinson, but do not believe him to be a credible source of information on Levinson's whereabouts.

Which is OK as far as it goes but Salahuddin is actually David Belfield, (born Roanoke Rapids, NC on November 10, 1950.) the disaffected son of a black father and white mother from North Carolina. He paid a postal worker $500 to borrow his Jeep and uniform. The 29-year-old then drove the few miles to the affluent Washington suburb of Bethesda, Maryland, where Ali Akbar Tabatabai, a former Iranian diplomat and critic of Ayatollah Khomeini, lived and shot him three times in the stomach with a handgun.(Guradian)

As if this is not enough, Belfield turned up agin 21 years later Hassan Tantai, in a false beard in an Iranian film called Kandahar, (Safar-e Ghandehar ("Journey to Kandahar") and, alternatively, The Sun Behind the Moon) directed by Mohsen Makhmalbaf, head of Iran's most celebrated film-making dynasty.

How so ?

Well in Montgomery County, Doug Gansler, the young state attorney who has been on Belfield's tail since he surfaced momentarily in Istanbul in 1995, to confess to the killing on ABC's 20/20 programme, couldn't quite believe his eyes when he saw David Belfield / Dawud Salahuddin /Hassan Abdulrahman /Hassan Tantai re-play the role of a black American who, like him, joined up to fight the Russians and then returned years later to tend to the women suffering under Mullah Omar's bizarre and cruel interpretation of Sharia law in Afghanistan.

As if that is not enough he seems to have tired of life in Teheran and in 1995 wrote to then US attorney general Janet Reno offering to surrender himself - but on quite novel terms. First, former president Jimmy Carter would have to testify at his trial, and Belfield was to remain free until a verdict was reached. "Even while awaiting possible execution," he wrote, "I would have to retain freedom of movement while, at the same time, waiving any right of appeal." Reno refused the offer. .. perhaps his frequent overseas travels to Arab countries and North Korea may have put him beyond the pale.

But yet he lives on in life and fillum..

In 2006 French born film-maker Jean-Daniel Lafond released a film entitled "American Fugitive: The Truth About Hassan", about Salahuddin. Lafond's film , which involves interviews with Belfield stirred controversy - especially as lafond was said to be a Quebec separatist and had ties to some terrorists. Some reviewers thought it was too sympathetic to Salahuddin. Other reviewers have expressed the opinion that Lafond should not address controversial topics because he is married to the current (Hiaitian by birth), 27th and 1st black Governor General of Canada, Her Excellency Michaëlle Jean.

It couldn't be possible that Dubya is about to spring a surprise detente with Iran - yet another volte face to up stage the new President ?

Help Bob Levinson

All very curious. As FDR sais, "Nothing happens by accident"

Salim Hamdan on way from Guantanamo Bay to Yemen - Bush upstages Obama

In a remarkably swift volt face with the aim of false footing the incoming President who has vowed to close Guantanao Bay the Pentagon / State Department have released Salim Hamdan ( age 40 ish) from Guantanamo Bay - apparently he is already on his way to Yemen and is expected to arrive within 48 hours in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, where he will serve out the rest of his military commission sentence, which is set to expire Dec. 27 (Wapo)

Hamdan, , was captured in Afghanistan at a roadblock in as he tried to flee the country with his family in November 2001, and immediately confessed to working for bin Laden in Afghanistan from 1997 to 2001 - when bin Laden was in the pay of the US. He claimed he was simply paid as a driver and was not part of any plans to wage war on the US.

Hamdan was convicted of aiding al-Qaeda in August and sentenced to 5 1/2 years in prison and will be serving the remaining 66 days of his sentence at home.

A jury of six US military officers sentenced Hamdan at Guantanamo's first war-crimes trial earlier this year, and at the time he had already served five years and a month at the Cuba facility.

Hamdan was convicted of supporting terrorism but was acquitted by a jury of military officers of providing missiles to al-Qaida and knowing his work would be used for terrorism. He was also cleared of being part of al-Qaeda's conspiracy to attack the United States although military prosecutors who portrayed him as a hardened al-Qaeda warrior. He was the second detainee to face a military commission at Guantanamo Bay and became the second man convicted of terrorism charges under the bogus legal procedures that were used at the military base. (Australian David Hicks was the first)

The decision to extradite Hamdan followed a judge’s rejection of an appeal by prosecutors to extend his sentence by ignoring the five years he had spent in the jail in Cuba as an “enemy combatant”.

The trial (?) also had to face the fact that Hamdan was convicted is that providing material support for terrorism was not an offense triable by military courts at the time Hamdan committed it, an apparent violation of the Constitution's ban on ex post facto laws (assuming that clause applies at Guantanamo). (NYT)

The trial (?) in which he was convicted included secret evidence, hearsay evidence, and evidence obtained through coercive interrogations during which Hamdan had no right to remain silent.

Paradoxically Hamdan's defense attorney, Navy Lt. Cmdr. Brian Mizer, *** suggested that Hamdan had offered to help U.S. forces in a significant way soon after he was captured, but U.S. forces failed to exploit the intelligence that Hamdan provided.

Hamdan's attorneys were ready to fight claims that their client could be held indefinitely, a case that probably would have brought Hamdan back to the Supreme Court to challenge his detention. Although Army Maj. Rick Morehouse said Hamdan was on a Detainee Socialization Management Plan , "To avoid linguistic isolation and solitary confinement.''

*** Lt. Cmdr. Mizer filed a brief in Hamdan's Guantánamo military commissions case, alleging that senior White House appointees to the Pentagon are orchestrating war crimes trials to help Republicans in the upcoming 2008 presidential campaign. Mizer argues that the blatant political interference makes it impossible for Hamdan to get a fair trial. (Miami Herald)

See broken Laws broken Lives Blog - Medical Evidence of Torture by the US run by Physicians for Human Rights (report pdf)

Lessons on stimulating the economy from the Dutch Government for Gordon and Alastair - and David and George

Some people might think that the Dutch scheme announced on Friday to stimulate their economy might possibly of interest to the double firsts in the Treasury, Bank of England and even the less well educated - ie those educated at Scottish Universities.

The Dutch government announced a €6 Bn. package of measures : Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende said that it is ‘all hands on deck’ as the country moves into a difficult economic period. the Netherlands has the lowest jobless rate in the European Union.

1. This would put a smile on every industrialists face and massively improve compamy liquidity without the need to extend borrowing unduly. The most significant measure in the package is the re-introduction of accelerated write-offs on investments for businesses, which is expected to generate €2 Bn. tax benefits for companies.

2. Ditto : Firms that have to lay-off workers or introduce shorter working hours as a result of the credit crisis to use the unemployment benefit fund to pay employees for up to 24 weeks. Some €200 Mn. is available for this.

3. The government will also make sure that it pays its bills to businesses on time.

4. In an effort to stimulate consumer spending, the lock-up on employees' tax-free savings schemes will be lifted. Under current regulations money invested in this scheme cannot be accessed for four years. You see, all those years of thrift pay off at times like this.

5. Speeding up building procedures to help the construction sector and bringing investments in infrastructure projects forward, this would include the new Delta flood control works.

6. Introducing regional mobility centers to help prevent imminent layoffs.

This aid package is the equivalent of around 1 % of the gross national product and pre-empts a rescue plan currently being prepared by the European Union for all member states.

Fixed penalty fines for seat belts (and probably number plates) which will cover cost of 10,000 Tasers for UK Police

Fixed penalty fines to double for not wearing seat belts in UK and will raise £7 Mn.

It is evident that fixed penalty fines are increasingly seen as a source of much needed revenue - and indeed are fast growing tax - mostly in evidence for parking and motoring offences. AS the fine revenue goes into the Home Office pot it is seen as a source of funds for new POlice expenditure.

Ray Massey in today's Daily Mail has a story, "Fines for motorists who fail to wear seatbelts to double" which confirms a Daily Telegraph story in September that Ministers were "consulting" raising the fixed penalty for non-compliance with seatbelt rules from £30 to £60. See also here.

To justify this surveys are quoted that show 94 % of drivers and 93 % of front-seat passengers wear seat belts, but only 70% of adult back-seat passengers belt up. Also, of the 942 drivers and 490 passengers killed in 2007 a third were not wearing seat belts.

The offence is not endorsable - the offender may well be a passenger. Approximately 235,000 fixed penalty notices were issued in 2006, (@ £30 = £7 Mn. so doubling it could raise a further £7 Mn.) and about 4,000 cases went to court where an offence can attract a fine up to £500.

A similiar "review" is underway to double the fixed penalty fine for the misrepresentation of vehicle registration marks from £30 to £60 in an attempt to crack down on illegal number plate offences - which includes Car number plate spacing , size, font - must be the Charles Wright font and the fixings. Here for more examples .

Jacqui Smith reveals £8Mn. for equipping all 43 UK Police forces with Taser stun guns

The Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) have welcomed the decision to equip all 43 UK Police forces with 10,000 Taser stun guns and to train 30,000 front line police response officers across the country with the new 50,000-volt electric guns at a cost almost eqivalent to the income expected from doubling the fine for fixed penalty tickets for seat belt offences.

This follows a trial in ten forces started in September 2007 : Avon and Somerset, Devon and
Cornwall, Gwent, Lincolnshire, Merseyside, MPS, Northamptonshire, Northumbria, North Wales and West Yorkshire. This was monitored by both monitored by the Home Office Scientific Development Branch (HOSDB) and ACPO Firearms.

These new toys for the boys were a welcome boost for Taser International Inc., the world’s biggest stun-gun maker, whose shares jumped 32 % in U.S. trading on the announcement of U.K. funding for a record purchase of 10,000 weapons. This, their biggest order ever is somewhere in the neighborhood of US$12 million . (Bloomberg)

US based SNK Outlet sells the The Advanced Taser M-18L .." a powerhouse of stopping power" retail, online at US$540 each - it is legal for cizens to own them in most states apparently...."a quantum leap in stopping power ". Taser warns that its device can cause burns that can become infected. It also says people who are shocked by the weapons can suffer bone fractures, dislocations, ruptures and hernias - Police have sued their employers in the US when they were injured by being "tasered" in training.

Whilst being deployed in the UK on more than 600 occasions in the past year, they were only fired 93 times, ministers said. Apparently the laser RED DOT acts to reduce agression and removes the need to fire the electrodes attached to 15 feet of wire.

The very ever so slightly not Independent Police Complaints Commission in a report published simultaneously found 35 complaints had been made against police using Tasers since they were first introduced in September 2004.

Of the 15 most serious investigated by the IPCC, the majority were about Tasers used in "drive-stun" mode, (also called Taser Touch Torture mode ) where Officers remove the prong cartridge and discharge the weapon directly against a person's body to subdue combative arrestees with a searing jolt of pain. See here

More at Truth not Tasers blog

German spies bomb EU office to frustrate plans for EULEX in Kosovo - trustworthy Albanians involved in double dealing with the BND ? Shirley not ?

The Boy David AKA Foreign Secretary was glad handing the criminals and thugs, Prime Minister Hashim Thaci and Foreign Minister Skender Hyseni of Kosovo ( Europe Minister Caroline Flint and DFID Minister Mike Foster were also present to join in shaking their bloody hands) who were in London with President Sejdiu and he was anxious to ;

....applaud the President and Prime Minister's commitment to full deployment of the EU rule of law mission in Kosovo (EULEX). This deployment is a crucial stage in Kosovo's development. Despite their deep concerns about some of the UN proposed transitional arrangements, I am impressed by the clearly-voiced commitment of Kosovo's leaders to take account of the concerns of Kosovo's Serb community. I discussed with them the importance of cooperation with the UN both in the interim phase before EULEX's full deployment, and thereafter, to the benefit of Kosovo as a multi-ethnic nation.

"Kosovo needs to keep building bridges with its neighbours as it moves closer to the EU. Britain will be with Kosovo in its search for security and prosperity, just as we were during the process leading to independence. "

EULEX will be the EU's largest civilian ESDP mission. Its responsibilities include monitoring and mentoring Kosovo's police, judiciary and prosecutors. Head of Mission General Yves de Kermabon aims to reach Initial Operating Capacity, assuming responsibility for the full range of EULEX's mandate, on 2 December.

Which may have something to do with ..... Four days before a bomb attack in Pristina Kosovan leaders rejected a plan (what the Boy David calls their "deep concerns) by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's for the deployment of an EU police and justice mission, EULEX.(Reuters)
German spies bomb EU office in Kosovo

Three men ( named so far as Robert C. (47), Andreas B. (41) und Andreas J. (41) see pic) , who it now transpires are members of Germany's foreign intelligence agency the Bundesnachtrichtendienst (BND)were arrested last Wednesday, in Pristina on suspicion of throwing explosives at the office of the EU Special Representative Peter Feith on Nov. 14 (4 days after the leaders rejected EULEX) . They deny involvement in the blast and claim they were only examining the scene. The explosion shattered windows in the building but no one was hurt.


On Saturday 22nd November a Pristina district court judge ordered them detained for 30 days on terrorism charges that could carry sentences of up to 20 years. AP report that court documents show that the prosecutor, Feti Tunuzliu, alleges that the suspects had intended to disrupt the EU's efforts to deploy its new police mission in Kosovo. Tunuzliu wrote that one of the suspects threw 300 grams (0.6 pounds) of dynamite at the EU offices from a building across the street on Nov. 14 as the two others kept watch. The BBC reported that the 3 men were simply investigating the event when arrested.

The German Foreign Ministry has confirmed that three German citizens have been arrested in Kosovo but declined comment. der Spiegel reports they are BND agents but had not been officially registered with the Kosovo authorities, as required so do not enjoy diplomatic immunity.

Bild today says the BND has ruled out the involvement of any of its employees in the attack on the EU office and have sources who believe it is the work of extremists in Kosovo who oppose the involvement of foreign organizations in their country. The arrest of the Germans is, they conclude, the result of a power struggle within the Kosovo leadership, with the anti-European faction having prevailed over those who wanted to see the three men released.

This diplomatic brouhaha arises when there is increasing tension and concern over the EU police mission in Kosovo. UN peacekeepers have been deployed since NATO bombed the country from 20,000 feet and the original UN mission, UNMIK, is now downsizing and the 2,000 strong EU mission, known as EULEX, is due to take over law enforcement.

However, Serbia, which has not recognized Kosovo, has won concessions on the EU deployment and the current plan proposes leaving the UN to patrol the ethnic Serb enclaves within Kosovo. Pristina rejects this and suspects that the split in policing will lead to a de-facto partition of Kosovo.

All very odd.. and the German Parliamentary Control group (PKG) will be meeting folks from the BND for a chat .. er .. "special meeting" which will no doubt be behind very closed doors.

Thomas Oppermann, chairman of the PKG , Social Democrat, said he could not imagine how the German agents could be involved in an attack on EU offices. "That seems to have been plucked out of the air," he told ARD on Monday. Max Stadler, who represents the opposition FDP on the panel, told the Berliner Zeitung that he wanted the government and the BND to say if the men were indeed intelligence officers.

PS : Lord Patel wishes to make it clear that all Albanian / Kosovan Government Ministers are honest, truthful, trsutworthy and sincere men and that there is no question that BND officers bombed EU officers in Pristina and and apologises if a misleading impression may have be given in the above story. see - Saturday, February 16, 2008 Kosovo - another swamp to get mired in to meet US colonial and imperial ambitions - this time in the Balkans - AGAIN and also Thursday, August 07, 2008 Gangsters settle in in Kosovan Government Thaci promotes Fehim Mujota to Head the Kosovo Security Forces

UPDATE Tuesday Nov 25th Gazette von Antwerpen suggests in a report that the Kosovan (ie Albanian) Mafia have fit up the Duitsers as they don't want anyone (EULEX) interfering in their lucrative people rafficking and drug smuggling.

The NYT report ..."Germany was one of the first countries to recognize Kosovo after it declared independence and it is a major aid donor. “Germany supports E.U. policy in Kosovo, and as such it would make no sense to attack the E.U. building in Pristina,” said Max Stadler, deputy chairman of the parliamentary commission (FDP) supervising the German secret services. "

Which makes sense, but one wonders what the BND guys were up to.

See also Emportal Serbian news agency report ..."Serbian Minister for Kosovo-Metohija Goran Bogdanovicyesterday visited the Visoki Decani Monastery where he stated that Kosovo Serbs cannot accept the Kosovo institutions’ four-item plan regarding the deployment of EULEX in the province. "

Sources told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa that the men's employer, Logistic Coordination Assessment Services, which ostensibly advises investors on opportunities in Kosovo, was a BND front company.Also reported by EIN (subscription only)

It seems no-one wants EULEX (except the Boy David) but curiously this is a story which hasn't seen light of day in any UK Press / TV....except us.

UPDATE : 25th Nov Der Spiegel says Kosovo authorities claim to have a film showing the bomb attack- but it hasn't been made public.

Natalie Bracht and her children found in Munich.

Natalie Bracht has been found with her 5 children in Munich , Germany. The children are now in the care of the German authorities.

A Northumbria Police spokesman said: “We are working with their German counterparts and will be speaking with Natalie in due course.”

Detective Chief Inspector Ian Bentham said: “I am happy that the girls have been found safe and well and I would like to thank the public and the media for their help and assistance in this matter.”

see -- Thursday, June 26, 2008 Natalie Bracht disappears - oh and five kids as well, on the lam for a month and no National Press and also here

Update Tuesday Daily mail report says she was ready to board a bus for Turkey

The Perfect Yorkshire Pudding

One of the eternal mysteries is how you teach peopel about English idioms ... take Yorkshire Pudding, and object sacred to those who dwell in Yorkshire and of mystery to those who don't.

So it was a slow news day (Gubment hadn't taken over any Banks, Woollies still in business, John "Twinkletoes" Sergeant still tripping the light fantastic ...) when the Daily Mail allowed the Royal Society of Chemistry to tell us how to make the perfect pud. Bollocks.

Yorkshire lass, Delia Smith's (see pic) Complete Cookery Course (page 141) has the perfect recipe.

Mix the batter ( "Pullin' the pud" colloq. Yorks.) - 3 oz. sifted plain flour, an egg, 5 oz milk / water and salt and pepper. Heat a cast iron gratin dish (essential) with 2 tbs best beef dripping (from any good butcher Oooop North) wait until it smokes pour in the batter. Put this on a baking sheet, top shelf , 15 / 20 mins at 220 C.

NEVER fails.... and you'll see it rise more than 4 inches.

US Embassy to leave Mayfair for Nine Elms

Norman Baker (Lib Dem MP for Lewes, who believes Dr David Kelly was murdered) has a Question (238996) down today for the Minister of State, Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform ...." whether his Department has raised with the US authorities their decision to prevent British firms from bidding for the contract to build a new US embassy in London; what assessment he has made of this decision in terms of compatibility with EU law; and if he will make a statement."

It was on October 2nd that second hand car dealer , Ambassador Robert Tuttle (he donated $200,000 towards Dubya's 2004 re-election his inauguration ceremony)anounced that the US Embassy would be vacating their current premises opened in 1960 and designed by Eero Saarinen, the Finnish-American architect on land currently leased in Grosvenor Square from the aged roue the Duke of Westminster. Rumour has it that approaches to buy the freehold have been brushed off with the reply that the Duke will sell when they restore Manhattan to his family.

Elswhere the justifiably nervous (if not cowardly) US Government has built a series of super-secure embassies, set far back from local residential areas and usually out of town.

The US State Department appointed Cushman & Wakefield ..."Global real estate solutions" .. to start looking for a new location after local resident’s (AKA Grosvenor Square Safety Group ) became restive about the extensive and inconvenient security which disturbed their quiet enjoyment of the Square. It is believed they have their sights on somewhere near MI6's riverside Palace and The US Department of State signed an agreement with Irish developer Ballymore last month to acquire a site in Wandsworth for the construction of a new embassy building.

Whilst the tender from the US State Department says only American architects with “experience in the design of American embassies and other buildings” will be invited to tender for the project, although UK-based branches of American firms will be able to apply - it is understood UK firms will be eligible to work as subcontractors.

The Grosvenor Square Safety Group accused the Metropolitan Police and Westminister Council of a "moral failure" for rejecting Ambassador Tuttle’s demands for the closure of two roads next to the embassy and placed ads in the press.

"A democratic country like the UK cannot adopt a very forward policy in fighting terrorism abroad while at the same time leave its citizens and residents — some of whom are Americans — exposed around top terrorist targets at home," the group said.

A consequence was an absurd £8 bonanza for security consultants and street furniture anoraks as they upgraded the front elevation with 6 ft high blast walls, raised concrete flower beds, moveable bollards, and some stern looking men.

Ambassador Tuttle has a history of unpleasantness and came to blows with Red Ken over the US refusal to pay his Congestion Charge. Red Ken called the US Ambassador a “chiselling little crook.”

Tuttle says the charge (they have run up at least £2.5 Mn so far in arrears) is a form of taxation, and the diplomats and their staff are therefore exempt under Article 23 the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations....."The sending State and the head of the mission shall be exempt from all national, regional or municipal dues and taxes in respect of the premises of the mission...."

It might interest Ambassador Tuttle that the FCO is currently employing American architects for new British Embassies in Jakarta [HOK Architects - who also spent 17 years refurbishing the FCO in St. James and have undertaken extensive work on the MOD Main building ] and Rabat [RTKL Architects]...."The project also provides a clubhouse and swimming pool for the staff."

Citigroup - turning dreams into ...er ... nightmares ?

The dealings of Governments with their pals and relations in the banking industry becomes more Alice in Wonderland every day, making it almost impossible to either keep up with announcements (never mind pre-announcements, hints, nudges, winks, tips, leaks, kite flying, and even lying) or to even hazard a guess at what the hell is happening.

Today Wall Street woke up to find that the US Cavalry (AKA the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department and FDIC ) had "rescued" Citigroup late Sunday night .. after the Fed, FDIC and Treasury identified a massive US$306B in troubled assets. (Citigroup Press release)

Citigroup will absorb the first US$29B in losses on their balance sheet (as if that matters) meanwhile, while the Cavalry will take on the majority of any further losses. Just to add a note of reality the Market capitalization today is just around US$20 Bn.

Citigroup will also receive a further US$20B capital injection from the Treasury in addition to the TARP $25B (@ 5%) it has already received as part of the broader banking bailout.

This will be done by the Treasury / Government receiving US$7B of preferred stock with an 8% dividend, (strike price will be equal to US$10.61 per share (the 20 day trailing average ending on November 21, 2008 although Citi shares closed at US$3.77 Friday).

So Citi have to pay out US$3.4 billion a year in interest payments to the government alone, (TARP + these new bonds) before shareholders see any profit at all.

A 4 page pdf issued by the Treasury , hastily cobbled together over the weekend provides further and better particulars of this extraordinary bond issue, which includes a restriction on the payment of common stock dividends - "prohibited from paying common stock dividends, in excess of US $.01 per share per quarter, for 3 years without UST consent". This also incorporates an ... "An executive compensation plan, including bonuses, that rewards longterm performance and profitability, with appropriate limitations, must be submitted to, and approved by, the USG".

Even with this huge US$306B portfolio dealt with (of which no details are available) , many think that as Citi holds over US$ 3Trillion in assets (well, what passes for assets in banking parlours these days) there will be more bad news to leak out.

For example the WSJ today says ...

In addition to US$2 trillion in assets Citigroup has on its balance sheet, it has another US$1.23 trillion in entities that aren't reflected there. ..... Despite the unprecedented scope of the rescue plan, it's not clear whether it will be enough to stabilize Citigroup. The roughly US$300 billion pool of assets that are included in the rescue plan represent only a sliver of the company's more than $3 trillion in assets, including its holdings in off-balance-sheet entities...Among the off-balance-sheet assets are US$667 billion in mortgage-related securities.

Don't forget you shareholders who face a lean time , for a long time ... the guys who got you into this place are still in their place....



George Denis Patrick Carlin May 12, 1937 – June 22, 2008 RIP

UPDATE : 1600 GMT Citigroup opened at US$ 6.12 and at 11.10 ET were US$ 6.03 +2.26 (up 59.95%) Nov 24

GM's Volt - an electric shocker

General Motors are in serious trouble.

They plan to produce the GM volt towards the end of 2010. This is a 4 door 2,500 pound sedan, described as a plug-in hybrid whose primary source of power is an electric motor. A single charge of the lithium-ion battery,(estimated to cost $10,000 to US$15,000 a car) will provide a range of 40miles.

An integral 1.4 litre, 4 cylinder engine will run a generator that will power the car and recharge the batteries once they are depleted and extend the range to 640 miles.

GM plan sales of 10,000 Volts in the car’s first year, current estimates provided by GM are that the car will retail at US$40,000. Toyota currrently advertise their Prius starting at US$22,000.

Mysteriously Jon Lauckner, G.M. vice president for global program management said at the LA Motor Show. “It’s a huge change in the whole paradigm of where cars have been.”

“We’ve turned into a plug-in society. We’ve got cellphones, PDAs, you name it, that are all plugged in. To a certain extent, it’s not much more complicated conceptually than coming in and plugging in your cellphone.”

So the guys who run this company have plans for a car that will generate US$40 Mn. sales, runs for 40 miles on a charge and will have (given a replacement battery is going to cost US$10,000 plus) virtually no resale value.

The same guys who have run the company for many years, whose shares sell today at US$3.04 and have a market capitalisation of US$1.84 Bn.

The same guys who want Congress to throw them billions to make the payroll till the end of January.

Obama makes transition to Whitehouseboy with ease

Change.gov chronicling the transition tells us that ..."Barack Obama visited Manny's Cafeteria and Deli in Chicago today to pick up two cherry pies and three corned beef sandwiches -- including one for himself and one for White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel."

NB : He makes sure he takes the receipt

Judge Leon releases 5 Algerian "rendered" prisoners from Guantanamo military prison - they haven't been released.

It appears that prisoners started to be "rendered" to Guantanamo Bay on January 11th 2002 - amonst the first were Boumediene Lakhdar, Sabar Lahmar, Mustaf Ait Idir, Bourdella Haj, Bensayah Belkacem and Mohammed Nechle ( "Ghost Plane" by Stephen Gray Page 249)all were born in Algeria but , blindfolded, drugged, handcuffed and shackled and spirited from Bosnian prison cells to a military prison outside sovereign U. S. territory.

Although the United States has maintained complete and uninterrupted control of Guantanamo for over 100 years, the US Government’s view is that the Constitution has no effect there, at least as to noncitizens, because the United States disclaimed formal sovereignty in its 1903 lease with Cuba.

All the prisoners had all been fingered by the US Embassy as having been involved in plotting an attack on the US Embassy. They were initially arrested on grounds that they were plotting to blow up the United States embassy in Sarajevo, but the US government later abandoned that claim and said the men planned to fight with Al Qaeda.

Arrested in October shortly after 9/11 the 6 had appeared in January before Bosnia's highest court who had issued 2 clear rulings, one ordering the immediate release of the prisoners due to lack of evidence and the other preventing the men from being deported.

Their arrest had followd a curious sequence of events which has taken time untangling but reveals the Kafkaesque / strong arm tactics the US resorted to their client sate. Bosnian police discovered that one of those arrested , Saber Lahmar, lived at the same address as his father-in-law, who was a janitor in the U.S. embassy.

On October 16, U.S. intelligence reportedly tapped a conversation on Lahmar's phone, which included a "coded reference" to a forthcoming attack on the U.S. and British embassies in Sarajevo. The following day both missions closed, and a tense meeting between American and Bosnian officials took place.

During that meeting, Christopher Hoh, the U.S. chargé d'affaires, reportedly told the Bosnian Federation's Prime Minister, Alija Behmen, that the U.S. would withdraw its personnel and cut diplomatic relations with his country if they did not arrest Lahmar and other suspected members of his cell. "If we leave Bosnia, God save your country, Mr. Prime Minister," Hoh said, according to filings by the detainee's American lawyers. Testimony to this effect has also been presented by the Bosnian Prime Minister, Alija Behman . It has also been confirmed by the international High Representative to Bosnia at the time, Wolfgang Petritsch. (A State Department lawyer, Vijay Padmanabhan, confirmed the encounter but stressed that U.S. officials had issued no threat and had merely passed along intelligence information about the embassy plot.)

A crowd of more than 150 excited and jubilant supporters had gathered outside Sarajevo's central jail awaiting the release of six prisoners. After a squad of Bosnian special police forces arrived on the scene intending to hand the men over to the U.S. military, the peaceful gathering quickly turned into a violent confrontation. Riot police intervened and a convoy eventually managed to whisk the prisoners away.

What the crowd didn't know was that whilst the Bosnian court was preparing to release their six prisoners, Prime Minister Behman was informed that Mr Bush, Vice-President Richard Cheney and the Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, had been personally briefed and the White House had decided that, if they were freed, US troops in the Nato Stabilisation Force in Bosnia would seize them, using "whatever force is necessary".

It is worth noting that in President Bush's 2002 State of the Union address – he said that "our soldiers, working with the Bosnian government, seized terrorists who were plotting to bomb our embassy in (in Sarajevo)."

Boumedienne v Bush

The history of the 6 is lengthy and involves many legals twists and turns ...perhaps the most significant was see Wiki Boumedienne v Bush and Cornell University for the details and significance of a writ for habeas corpus (Consolidated with Al Odah v. United States ).

Briefly this directly challenged the legality of Boumediene’s detention at the Guantanamo Bay military base as well as the constitutionality of the Military Commissions Act (MCA) of 2006. Oral arguments on the combined case were heard by the Supreme Court on December 5, 2007. On June 12, 2008, Justice Kennedy wrote the opinion for the 5-4 majority holding that the prisoners had a right to the habeas corpus under the United States Constitution and that the MCA was an unconstitutional suspension of that right.

Judge Leon rules on Boumedienne and others 20th November 2008

After a hearing started on 6th November , in a written opinion on Friday , Judge Leon, a Republican appointee ruled there is insufficient evidence to warrant detention of five detainees, but sufficient evidence to hold one detainee linked both to al Qaeda and to (unrealized) plans to fight in Afghanistan. He had earlier in when the 6 men applied for a court hearing in 2004, rejected their request before the Supreme Court reversed his decision (see above).

There were 2 parts to his ruling, (based on evidence presented in a closed court) seen by some as a watershed in handling the cases of the remaining Gunatanamo detainees / prisoners.

1. To support the claim that the men planned to go to Afghanistan to fight, the government appears to have relied on a single document citing an unnamed source ( "a classified document from an unnamed source," ). Judge Leon described the document as tending to show at least something about each detainee's knowledge of and desire to participate in such a plan, but concluded that the government had not provided sufficient information about this source to establish his/her credibility. As there was no corroborating evidence, Judge Leon concluded that the government had failed to satisfy the preponderance standard as to the Afghanistan argument.

2. The Government said Belkacem Bensayah – was an al Qaeda member who served a "facilitator" function (i.e., that he recruited fighters and assisted their transit to Afghanistan).

Here, the government relied not just on the above-mentioned document, but other intelligence reports "based on a variety of sources and evidence" which corroborated this claim. Judge Leon explained that the government's evidence (i) linked Bensayah to al Qaeda in general and a senior al Qaeda facilitator in particular; (ii) established Bensayah's capacity to travel internationally on false passports in multiple names; and (iii) tended to discredit Bensayah's attempt to explain away the government's allegations. This is said to relate top a piece of paper involved the alleged discovery of a piece of paper at his home, bearing a telephone number for an al-Qa'ida operative, Abu Zubayder. "The Bosnian police couldn't get this number to work in Afghanistan or Pakistan," one of the prisoners' lawyers, Stephen Oleskey,

Nobody has been released (the 6 have remained in Cuba all this time) and according to Bloomberg Justice Department spokesman Peter Carr said in a statement the DOJ was pleased that Bensayah can continue to be held and that it is reviewing the decision regarding the other five men.

Elswhere it is reported that White House Spokesman Mr. Tony Fratto said, “Washington is not satisfied with the court’s decision,” . He further expressed his wish that the court would reconsider the decision related to the release of the 5 Algerians.

Meanwhile Boumedienne is said by his lawyer Stephen Oleskey to be suffering badly from his detention after going on a hunger strike. He is being force-fed by a tube inserted into his stomach through his nose.

"Twice a day he is strapped onto a chair at seven points," said Oleskey.

"One side of his nose is broken, so they put it (the tube) in the other side ... Sometimes it goes to his lung instead of his stomach. He can’t say anything because he has the mask on: that’s torture," Oleskey said.

Despite suffering from numerous ailments, Belkacem Bensayeh is refusing medical treatment at Guantánamo as he does not trust the staff or the facilities. He is currently held in Camp 6, where he spends at least 22 hours a day in a solid steel cell with no natural light.

It is reported that a US interrogator said to him .."I am going back to my wife and children, and you are going back to your cell like a dog.” (Cage prisoners)

Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Afghanistan. Why the RAF are calling in the Tornado GR4's and replacing the Harriers .... or maybe not

The UK public are vaguely aware that the RAF have a role in Afghanistan and prefer probably not to think of the aerial bombing of civilians, the deaths of women and children or even of Taliban being blown to bits.

It has however been an exciting week for Afghanistan bombing anoraks in (and outside) the House of Commons.

17 Nov 2008 : Column 134W of Hansard ... Has a fascinating series of written answers to questions to the Secretary of State for Defence Mr Huttton by Messrs Ellwood, Swire, Ancram, and the terriet like Mark Lancaster with his subsequent questioning about the decision to deploy 8 Tornado GR4's to replace 8 Harriers.

This reveals that 24 aircrew and 122 ground staff will be required and that related costs given by bluff, non nonsense, no sense Bob Ainsworth claimed

..." The financial costs for continuing to sustain eight Harrier GR9 on
Operation Herrick are estimated to be £30 million p.a. This cost includes, for
example, fuel, forward and depth maintenance, associated equipment support and
is based on current levels of activity. The costs associated with sustaining
eight Tornado GR4 on Operation Herrick (not yet deployed) are estimated to be
£31 million p.a. on an equivalent basis. The cost of deploying Tornado GR4 to
Operation Herrick is up to £40 million."

19 Nov 2008 : Column 89WH of Hansard ...Provides the details of the debate initiated by Mark Lancaster (Con. Milton Keynes TD) on RAF Operations ..."I intend to focus on the Harrier force in this debate—I have given the Minister advance warning that I intend to focus solely on the Joint Force Harrier—and it has been doing a sterling job, rightly earning a reputation as being very much the soldier’s friend in Afghanistan."

He first asked ..."why are we due to withdraw the Joint Force Harrier from Afghanistan from next year?" In answer to a parliamentary question ( 2 days earlier) , Minister for the Armed Forces said ...

“Mindful of the strain that this extended deployment has put upon the crews,
their families and the wider role of Joint Force Harrier we have decided to
withdraw the Harriers from Afghanistan and replace them with an equivalent force
of Tornado GR4s.”—[Official Report, 17 November 2008; Vol. 483, c. 136W.]

Mark Lancaster says "I now intend to go into some detail about those concerns, which are based on capability, finance, the impact on personnel,..." and those anxious for more and better particulars are advised to read hansard . Sufficient to report here...

" ....from a weapons point of view — of the six weapons systems that are carried on the Harrier, four cannot currently be carried on a Tornado......of the eight specialist items on a Harrier for close air support, four will not be available for the Tornado."

The he added, quoting from information not supplied by the MOD .. but not questioned by the Minister.

"I will not go into the details of ground abort rates, but suffice to say that at the moment the Harrier is operating at a 0.34 per cent. ground abort rate. That means that only about four in every 1,000 times that we call on a Harrier to go on a mission in Afghanistan it cannot take off, because of some technical problem. By comparison, the Tornado GR4 is operating at a ground abort rate of 11.6 per cent. That means that more than one in 10 times that a Tornado is scrambled on operations, it simply fails to get off the ground. If that is the case, why are we replacing eight Harriers with eight Tornadoes? Why are we accepting that one in 10 times a Tornado will not get off the ground and therefore one in 10 times it will not get to serve our soldiers on the ground on the front line? Is the Minister really happy to take that risk? In fact, the ground abort rate for Tornadoes peaked last month at 12.7 per cent., so this problem is getting worse, not better."

Adding ..

"We have already spent £728 million on upgrading the Harrier to capability E, which was effectively to improve its performance specifically for roles in Afghanistan. We have also spent £112 million on the new Mk 107 engine, which is specifically designed to operate in hot climates."

He then goes on to argue , with some justification that with defence cuts looming and Tornado's exiting Iraq that the Tornado is looking vulnerable to cuts so a role is being discovered for it in Afghanistan.

The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence, Mr. Kevan Jones (Labour N Durham website 10th September ..."today highlighted the ongoing litter problems caused by the fast food chain McDonalds".) in the few minutes remaining of the debate paying tribute to Colour Sergeant Krishnabahadur Dura, paying tribute to the RAF, the Ghurkas, find time to point out ... "In some ways the Tornado brings capabilities that the Harrier does not, such as the 27 mm cannon and the new RAPTOR imaging system—the reconnaissance airborne pod Tornado—which has been used very effectively in Iraq and, I am told, will be in Afghanistan as well."

Mr Lancaster was anxious that Mr Jones also dwelt on the things that the Tornado could not do that the Harrier could not do . So the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence whinged that ..."if there are concerns among serving personnel, they cannot be articulated through the chain of command." Which they evidently had but with no or little effect.

In the dying minute Mr Lancaster asked ..."Will he also write to me with answers to the questions that he has not answered?"

Probably not.

Dirty King Coal has a Bright Future - National Intelligence Council report

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World - National Intelligence Council (8.1 Mb. pdf !)

"...coal may be the fastest growing energy source despite being the “dirtiest.” Rising prices for oil and natural gas would put a new premium on energy sources that are cheap, abundant, and close to markets. Three of the largest and fastest-growing energy consumers—the US, China, and India—and Russia possess the four largest recoverable coal reserves,representing 67 % of known global reserves. Increased coal production could extend non-renewable carbon-based energy systems for one or even two centuries." Page 63

"All current technologies are inadequate for replacing traditional energy architectures on the scale needed, and new energy technologies probably will not be commercially viable and widespread by 2025" Page 65

All of which translates somehow in the Poop Murdoch press into (Times today) ..."On a positive note it added that an alternative to oil might be in place by 2025." ... unless of course they mean the alternative to oil will be coal ?

In this context it is worth noting that British Energy - soon to be re-branded as French Energy - produced their half year results this week .. They produced 22.7TWh down 27 % from 30.7TWh for H1 7/08 ... a 31 % reduction in nuclear output of 19.2TWh from 27 .8TWh) and huge increase of 40 % from their single coal fired Eggborough coal plant of 3.5TWh compared with 2.9TWh. It is worth noting that fuel costs at Eggborough also increased from £63 Mn. to 146 Mn. reflecting increased costs of coal on world markets.

This meant that even with a realised price per MWh up from £38.4 to £47.2/MWh for the period, up £8.8/MWh from £38.4/MWh in the comparable period unit operating costs had increased from £26 to £41.3/MWh and so margins slipped perMWh from £12.5 to £5.9.

Partly the result of having 5TWh of output capped until 2011 at £34/MWh. The capped contracts are for delivery of approximately 5TWh.

Expect some fancy footwork for carbon emissions "aspirations" , "targets" , "goals" to be ...er .. downgraded .. forgotten .. between now and 2025.

UPDATE Economic Slump May Limit Moves on Clean Energy NYT By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL November 24, 2008

"At the same time, the price of buying permits to emit carbon dioxide in Europe — a system the European Union uses to discourage companies from polluting — have fallen by half compared with the price a year ago, largely because of slower growth.

Wind costs more than $2.5 billion per gigawatt to build, compared with $600 million for gas. Carbon permits and subsidies can narrow that gap, but the current low prices mean that it is cheaper to burn coal, even after paying penalties for the carbon dioxide emissions."

VAT Carousel fraudster Craig Johnson must pay £28 Mn. or face 10 more years in jail

We first posted about how 37 year old Craig Johnson who was one 7 members of a gang ... and claimed "mastermind" ...who were involved in a highly successful £68 million VAT fraud (probably part of a greater £138 Mn. fraud resulting in 21 people jailed for up to 130 years) . He pleaded guilty to conspiracy to laundering £6.3 million from the proceeds of crime and was given a two year jail sentence at Birmingham Crown Court - VAT fraud - launder £6 Mn get 2 years Saturday, September 27, 2008 which was added to 10 years for fraud in 2006 when after Operation Emersed, 12 people – including Johnson – were jailed for a total of 75 years..

Yesterday, at a confiscation hearing at Wolverhampton Crown Court he was handed down a repayment order for £28 Mn - £8m within the next 12 months and the remainder within a further 12 months. If Johnson does not repay the money he could face another 10 years in prison. The largest issued in UK courts. BBC photos of siezed assets, homes, helicopter, yacht, cars, watches, diamonds etc,

Johnson lived at his 300-year-old Meaford House with wife Amanda — now in Dubai with their children - where there is also suspected to be further property — and mistress Kim, who also took his surname.

The confiscation hearing, also involved 2 other defendants from the 12 strong gang – Linda Wragg, 44, of Hanchurch, Stoke-on-Trent, who previously got six-and-a-half years, (UPDATE - Wragg ordered to re-pay £88,685 to the public purse or face an extra 21 months in prison Nov 24th) and 28-year-old Steven Lipinski, from Essex, jailed for 6 years.

A second confiscation hearing is set for the beginning of January 2009, for 6 other criminal associates – Christopher Sanders, Robert Capewell, Gwyn Jones, Stephen Hancock, Nicholas Shipley, Anthony Trickett-Smith.

A third confiscation hearing is set for next March for the remaining three criminals – Charles McWhinnie, Catherine Temple and Sharon Hawcroft.

The total level of such VAT "carousel fraud" is unknown, but it was running at £400 Mn. monthly for several years - Current levels of such fraud have not been published but some official estimates say that Europe wide it costing European taxpayers up to £170bn a year - twice the European Union's annual budget.

Phorm critics, silenced, removed, erased, from BT forums discussing PHORM

Getting ready for an early election or perhaps because Her Majesty turned over two pages at once, he previousl announced Communications Data Bill allowing the creation of a state run database that stores every email, web page visit, phone call and text message has been elayed.

This would allow "communications data capabilities for the prevention and detection of crime and protection of national security to keep up with changing technology through providing for the collection and retention of such data, including data not required for the business purposes of communications service providers; and to ensure strict safeguards continue to strike the proper balance between privacy and protecting the public."

This doesn't mean that attempts to snoop on your web browsing have been shelved. Critics of PHORM the new advertisers service BT have been experimenting with, have found themselves suffer again at the hands of those freedom of speech people at BT - One of whose Directors is Patricia Hewitt the charmless gauleiter who introduced the world of private medicine to the NHS after 4 years at DTI - who is now cashing in her chips to spend more time with her money after her time as a Government Minister.

The recently ennobled shreiking Shriti Vadera , Gordon's bosom pal , the shrill mastermind behind Rail Privatisation , and collapsed tube privatisation , is now a Baroness is the Minister for Business and Competitiveness. She has met BT and there is no doubt has given them the dusky thumbs up.

Silencing the critics

BT subscribers have taken the opportunity to use BT Beta forums to criticise its relationship with Phorm ..."striving to create a new, more responsive, intuitive kind of internet experience" ... and raise concerns about the technical implications of ISPs wiretapping their customers.

As a result BT published this announcement on Tuesday ;

Our broadband support forums are designed to be a place where customers can discuss technical support issues and offer solutions. To ensure that the forums remain constructive we're tightening up our moderation policies and will be deleting threads that don't provide constructive support. For example, we have removed a number of forum discussions about BT Webwise.

If you do want to find out more about BT Webwise, we provide lots of information and the facility to contact us at www.bt.com/webwise. We hope you'll continue to enjoy being part of the support community.

When BT began their thrid trial of the PHORM system a 200 page thread on the issue on WebWisewas closed for comment in September.

This thread remained available to read and a new thread was started by BT Beta moderators

Yesterday they closed both and removed them.

Adam Liversage, BT's chief press officer, is quoted in The Register: "The reason why we've done this is that the point of the forums is technical support and the WebWise threads weren't appropriate." Ho...Ho...Ho

Closing the thread and removing them had no significance (like stifling debate ?) and disingenuously suggested ..." ...the people who are following this will have the threads backed up in multiple copies." Those who want a portal to such collections can find the door here.

So that's alright then.

When asked by The Register if more threads that BT considers inappropriate will be deleted, Liversage said: "I think they can, yeah."

Phorm's Dirty Tricks department tried to censor remarks and some unwlcome facts from their Wikipedia entry in April. (Phorm admits 'over zealous' editing of Wikipedia article)..."we accept that we were a little over zealous in our efforts to make those corrections and that we erroneously removed some relevant items in the editing process. "

See Sunday, March 02, 2008 Just when you thought it was safe to browse the Web. Also see discussion today at Think Broadband

Dead of many nations , killed in Afghanistan, remembered in Manchester today

Bob Woodward's Bush at War, pp. 35-36 confirmed that that National Security Presidential Directive #9, after being vetted by NSC Advisor Condoleezza Rice in the White House, was "ready to go to the President on September 10." This was a plan to "eliminate" al Qaeda by going "on the offensive" against the Taliban.

On September 4 the deputy secretaries of defense and state had, "approved and recommended a plan [to this effect] that would give the CIA $125 million to $200 million a year to arm the [Northern] Alliance."

Operation Enduring Freedom was alunched on October 7, 2001 as the as ajoint US and UK military operation.

"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the US and our allies have prevailed," Bush said 19 months later on FridayMay 2nd 2003, from the deck of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln which was returning to its home port on the West Coast after ten months of service in support of the military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.

"The battle of Iraq is one victory in a war on terror that began on September 11, 2001 and still goes on," Bush told 5,000 sailors on the carrier.

Stop the War manchester took the opportunity after countless deaths since Enduring Freedom unleashed daily aerial bombing on Afghanistan ad Pakistan to rmember some of the dead.

Names garnered from news reports of the dead of many nations were written on 1,000memorial labels in schools, doctor's waiting rooms, streets, pubs, clubs and diaplyed in the middle of the main pedestrian precinct in Manchester immediately outside the entrance to the Arndale centre - remodelled after the Irish terrorists required it to be re-modelled some years ago.

Ex Labour Mayor of Manchester City Council Cllr. Afzal Khan came to provide support.

It was a brisk shopping day amajor retailers were launching major sales and the site was visited by many others and granparents of serving soldiers who generally expresed concern over the safety of their family members at war, and a wholseome desire for a speedy exit.

A surly scalped young man claiming to have served with 3rd Para in Musa Quala was a sole critic of the display - many of whose coleagues names were listed.

Lord Patel an inoccent remarked to the energetic organiser Mark that PC PLod was noticeably in non - attendance. With a weary shrug he indicated the wealth of CCTV cameras.

Returning home via Victoria Station later the folowing Transport Police sign confirmed the ubiquity of the searching lens.

Boeing 787 Dreamliner - Some Good news and some very, very , very bad news

The 100% composite wing box on the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, weighing 55,000 , the first ever for a Boeing commercial airplane has caused caused considerable problems and stalled development whilst it has been redesigned. It was designed and built by a joint team of Boeing, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fuji Heavy Industries.

Full scale destructive testing has just been completed , a major milestone in certification - albeit some 2 years behind schedule.

This also provides a verification of the simulations and analytical methods used to calculate the loads the structure will have to carry. (video of test available here)

The wing box is a cantilevered beam that carries the wing to the fuselage and supports leading- and trailing-edge devices, control surfaces, engines and landing gear. The test piece represents a portion of the wing section that begins at about the center of the airplane and stops at approximately one-half of the span of the wing -- approximately 50 feet (15.2 meters). The piece measures approximately 18 feet (5.5 meters) at its widest point.The upper and lower surface panels and the spars of the wing are made entirely of the same composite material being used on the fuselage.

Each main wing rib is however a monolithic aluminum structures, each machined from a single piece of aluminum plate.

Certification requires, the wings must withstand loads up to 1.5 times, or 150 percent, of the highest aerodynamic load that the jet could ever be expected to see in the entire lifetime of the 787 fleet.

Structural testing will now have to continue on two full-scale 787 airframes as part of the certification process for the airplane to demonstrate the performance of the structure through multiple lifetimes of normal operational loads and test the structure beyond the points expected to be seen in service.

Fastener problem on Dreamliner due to engineering error at Everett

It has been revealed today that the problems with fasteners - another that has caused major delays , has been identified as an engineering error made in Everett.

Thousands of fasteners on every Dreamliner used inside the fuselage to fasten titanium structure to carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic composite are going to have top be replaced , up to 8,000 on each of the first down planes under construction.

The problems emerged with the fasteners emerged after a pressurization test in October .The problem arose only on structures installed inside the fuselage shell — such as the floor grid — where titanium was fastened to the composite. What this means in terms of further delay is not yet known. It will certainly delay the first flight even further than previously planned.

A whole series of strict Boeing specifications governs installation of fasteners, depending on the materials being joined together. It appears that with these fasteners , the instructions for fastening titanium to composite bewildered mechanics.

An operations manager at a Dreamliner supplier plant said he examined the specifications closely with an experienced design engineer after the problem was discovered and realized the mechanics were not at fault.

Several specifications from Boeing provided ambiguous instructions and measurements that led mechanics to cut too shallowly the tops of the holes they were drilling.

Boeing discovered the fastener problem last month, in the midst of the strike. A pressurization test on one of the completed Dreamliners revealed a small gap under the heads of thousands of fasteners inside the fuselage.


Whilst not a safety problem it potentially could reduce the airframe's durability. Boeing and its partners must fix it on all the planes now in Everett and on all the partially completed sections at supplier plants worldwide. It also reveals a serious lack of quality-control inspection, especially early in the program.

Apparently , the specification that mechanics consult for precise instructions made the job impossible. With these specific fasteners they wouldn't sit properly in the hole unless the top of the hole is widened to accommodate a bevel, a curved join between the head and the shank of the fastener. The mechanic has to prepare the hole by cutting it wider at the top, first consulting a specification to find out exactly how much to cut.

But the documents were confusing. The regular spec document for installing fasteners sent the mechanic to another spec if composite plastic was being drilled. This spec then correctly sent the mechanic back to the first if the fastener head was on the titanium side, as in this case.

But a sub-specification that supposedly superseded the second spec contradicted the main spec with a table containing different and inaccurate measurements. A separate document clouded the instructions further.

The specifications were prepared in Everett by Boeing engineering staff and were supposed to be translated by Boeing planners into easily followed instructions.

Boeing acknowledges that the instructions were confusing and says they are being rewritten.

Fixing the mess means undoing much interior installation work already completed.

A person working on the 787 in Everett said the insulation blankets that lined the walls of Dreamliner No. 1 in Everett were removed to allow access to the fasteners.

The location of all the fasteners is not certain, so "they have to reinspect the airplane from nose to tail," he said.

Quality-control inspectors are "crawling through" the first two airplanes in the assembly bay "ripping all the systems out, everything that's in the way," said an Everett 787 mechanic.

787 partners under pressure - and hurting

Global Aeronautica, a joint venture between Boeing and its Italian partner Alenia, assembles the 84-foot-long central fuselage from sections that arrive partly complete from Italy and Japan.

At the Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita, Kan., a person familiar with the situation said the problem affects up to 3,000 fasteners per plane.

Vought next door in Charleston is less affected by the problem than other 787 partners. Only the rear fuselages of seven airplanes — No. 5 through No. 11 — have to be reworked which will take about a week per airplane to remove and reinstall all the fasteners - involving replacing fewer than 2,000 fasteners per airplane on its 38-foot-long sections.

Boeing is expected to announce a new Dreamliner delivery schedule incorporating both the strike delay and the fastener fix ... some time real soon now.